A close above $1200 would be nice. Those psychological levels seem to be more important than particular specific TA levels, but I'll take $50 up from where we were 10 days ago. Latest US q1 gdp indicators don't look good at all. This if the data the fed will be looking at when considering whether to raise rates. Next jobs figures will be interesting. Corporate profit margins are down, during a healthy recovery this can be due to wage growth, but we haven't seen that even though the actual number of employed people is increasing. If the next lot of non-farm figures have very low wage growth (or even contraction) coupled with these figures I think you don't see rate rises for a fair while. Nought even get some coded reference to this in the next fed meeting, that's gotta be worth $50 fir gold over a relatively short period.
The only thing I have heard that made me take any notice was Greenspan saying the gold price may rise 'measurably'. Love him or loathe him that man has more experience in global economics than anyone else on the planet and his warnings on raising interest rates in 1999 gave me clear time to exit the market. He may of course be wrong. The signal for golds bull was when the fed stopped publishing the money supply figures for large institutions whenever it was (2006?). By the time 2009 happened you had to have your chips on the table the increase in monetary supply was already done.. The fed could actually wind up raising or ............cutting rates. There is nothing in the fedspeak to exclude either and while Greenspan raised rates to haul back some sanity we know the current fed won't so if the markets drop I think the fed could just as readily cut them further and go negative if the markets correct a bit, after all why not? What other option would they have in that circumstance. Technical chart analysis is (expletive) always was and always will be. If people could get rich drawing lines across 200 day moving averages then no one would ever work and 12 year olds would be driving sports cars. There is however almost certainly a trail of tears ahead for facebook, amazon, groupon, twitter and all the other PE meltdowns and believe me there will come a day when a headline in some syndicated newsfeed will be pressing people to catch a falling apple knife like it is the chance of a lifetime.....it's funny how a bull market in anything make those who made money on it think they are smart as opposed to reality which is they are just plain lucky. Tolstoy said it well on Napoleon in War and peace. Something like he rolled a dice 6 times with a big bet and got 6s and the 7th time he rolled a 1. The only thing that separates a guy on the streets of Calcutta and Bill Gates is luck. That's scary or us all so we try and pretend different....like leon1998 trying to make the world a less scary place by praying to wave theory.. Thanks for the thumbs up on the chart. I hearby declare it open source and it may be used feely by any and all as they wish. Good tune.... [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kK62tfoCmuQ[/youtube] Sorry 'bout the edits I'm bad for typos....
In USD, Au prolly has reached a short-to-mid term bottom; it will be going up from here for several weeks. However, the low will be revisited several months later; in technical analysis its called positive divergence. And that low will prolly be THE LOW for a long while.
