Hi Guys, Here's my 18 years of charting for you, free! I use technical analysis and Elliott Wave. This is my primary count, there are 2 other counts that I have, both more bearish. The chart only shows a slice of the action, I start with the big picture and work down. The reason this is my primary count is because of the near 61.8% retracement of last major move with the blow off top. For this reason we have seen a double bottom and a reasonable wave count with a multi-year correction. The price action is still bearish in contradiction to world events. At this point I am not calling the low until we have confirming price action to the upside and a break of the highs. Although I think the market is ahem *influenced, technical analysis still offers some insight into market movements and how the patterns of influence can play out. Although this is my primary count, it still may have a ways to play out and one "5" wave may happen whilst maintaining this count. However the confluence of the double bottom, 61.8 retracement, time period make me think this could be a support level for a possible bottom but I am unconvinced until we see a break of the last 2 highs. Any questions just ask.
Yes. How can you 'honestly' predict the future thru charts/graphs etc when you have absoluteley NO idea what trick Janet Yellen is going to pull next? NO ONE can predict what The Feds already know what they're going to do next???
Good question. If you think it's about what Janet Yelen does and how the media attributes price action then you've bought into their game just as much. The game is rigged no matter what. Charts to me, just give a idea of the patterns of influence. That's what technical analysis is, it does not consider fundamentals in its purest form. Many technical analysts will say that's why we see counter intuitive moves in the market. EDIT: I should add that almost the majority traders do use chart not just news. EDIT 2: Spelling
Price action is the only true indicator of the whole of market opinion regarding world events. It is a result of all news and world events, it is fact, and it includes all market participants, non-participants, and their opinions. Thus, it cannot be wrong or contradictory. Any supposed contradiction to price is merely a theory. ^^ This x 100
Seems like a big waste of time to me? Hope it all works out for you.....Everyone needs a job somewhere in this world!
Actually in times of turmoil the price of gold throughout history heads up and this is the expectation. However you'll need to talk to much older people than me about this. Especially people who lived during WW2 etc. when gold was money. A lot has changed since then... it's be a slow unwinding, see Feteke's work too. As for the "market always being right", you are free to believe that "the market" exists and really determines prices. However the vast majority of the people involved in precious metals have a fair idea of how the fiat empire operates. Now if you think the market is free and unimpeded then be my guest. As for the price action and charting, there are specific rules when to go long or short and where to place stop losses etc. I won't go into that.
There is a lot of expectation between PM stackers. Ask them how expectation is doing as an investment strategy? read my sig.... Oh,...... OK.
Great. You put a lot of faith into your assumptions. Calling other people fools too? Interesting. Ever thought that the 'manipulation' is part of the strategy? That other than possibly microchipping the population and have an electronic system which is being discussed, that gold might be a fall back option? Gold has always been a central part of the system of control, actually money and the power to control its issuance is critical to the way the world is. Do you care to tell the audience how fiat money is created? I don't want to get into a debate with you however I think part of your agenda is to bait people and ridicule anyone that knows anything about how the world operates that falls outside of the mainstream media wonderful world projection. No doubt whilst promoting how "foolish" anyone is to believe all the evidence to the contrary when people start to examine things critically. I dealt with your type lots. All what happens is that I start quoting a whole bunch of indisputable evidence and people end up making up their own minds. Do you really want to go there? I merely post a chart, disagree with it, fine. Argue, why waste the time? Let's not go there.
To be fair playing a game that is completely rigged would be foolish, you can't argue with the quote. You can argue that there is market manipulation, pump & dumps ect. Personally I would not dismiss the idea entirely with gold, but, I also believe it's no more manipulated than any other commodity. I think it's a fantasy to suggest some big-shots are constantly suppressing the price of metals, the world is too big a place to be able to pull it off.
Seems like you guys really want to go there? People have a read of a recent article: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/18/truth-money-iou-bank-of-england-austerity As more people realise what's going on, even the media is slowly conceding what many of us have found out. David Graeber, the author of the article above also wrote a book called "Debt the first 5000 years" talks specifically about economic enslavement of populations by the introduction of debt based money systems, usually by force. I recommend it, especially anyone believing the conjouling of these guys. You can also go to youtube and watch a video on him. Also read Professor Antel Feteke's work. He has excellent papers on how silver then gold were removed from our economic system. All free on his site. Learn economic history, it's all there. I've even spoken to Professor Steve Keen for near 2 hours, funny how instead of ridiculing me, he gave me the history of the economic systems and the "public/private partnerships" involved in monetary creation. And how the modern version was formalised by the "Bankers of Venice". His work revolves around Minsky and the "crack up boom" he believes is occurring as the debt bubble becomes unsustainable aka "the minsky moment". Although I don't like Stefan, he has an excellent clip which is very entertaining, "The story of your enslavement". It's good for anyone thinking... the world doesn't need to be this way. Why is it like this? [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbp6umQT58A[/youtube] Unless there is a real physical shortage of precious metals then the paper market can determine price. In 2008 there was a physical shortage globally and what we saw were higher prices than the paper markets. I suggest the audience resists falling for throw away lines like "the market is too big etc." Given any opportunity is it only natural for power to consolidate, we call that history! How it operates today... ah... it's really intriguing and sophisticated! Have a watch of this: [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXg70qJQ6O0[/youtube] If you are surprised that fiat money is created by private interest for their benefit and think the markets are free and believe the myth, funny. Let us continue. Poke me a bit more guys if you like.
OK. This sounds like the usual silver rhetoric..... Do you work for Goldmoney (Mike Baloney), or zerohedge?
I have always found charts to be extremely good at predicting the past and as such I would place too much faith in them signalling a bottom. Your problem lies in the issue that if you are wrong, your understanding of the charts is deemed flawed so you then seek to adapt your interpretation of the chart to suit the chart. If you are wrong a second time you further adapt and so on. You are learning nothing in reality. The bottom of a market is an energy .....just like the eye of a hurricane. You get pounded near to death ...then there is the lull....then comes the energy from the opposite side. It is the lull that we must understand. Nobody wants gold, price below mining costs, miners shutting shop etc, etc. You will eventually see that on a chart. It is normal market behaviour.....if you want gold to shine, it will have to endure hardship first.
Great points. You are exactly right in regards to that the charts and analysis can indeed be proven right or wrong. However people that trade using charts enter a trade when a signal if confirmed and place a narrow stop loss to limit losses. As the price moves towards the direction then one uses a "trailing stop loss" to secure a profit. If the price moves against them then losses are very limited. These are just some of the rules. Even if the count is off, you can still use them profitably. The very fact that charts are adaptive is an excellent reason why they are useful. Personally I like the adaptable nature of them. A great many traders make their livings from charting, it's also used by companies, banks, hedge funds etc. and is incorporated into high frequency trading as the computers know where orders are placed and can move markets according to their "technical" algorithms to create profitable short term trades. Seems to work for them too. Technicals may have little if anything to do with news. The chart I provided is a macro view of the correction and not a short term trading chart. Because the price action is range bound the medium trend is relatively sideways, this is a confluence, there appears to be support at the double bottom. However lower highs which is still bearish. So by no means is this statistically a bottom as there are mixed signals. The support at around the 61.8% level is a technical key area which is why I produced the chart. Also at no point did I say "this is the bottom", I do think what we are seeing is a technical phenomena that is interesting and a pattern that we see happen repeatedly. Gold has been in a multi-year correction and at some point the reasonable expectation is that the "fiat price" may reverse and head upwards rather than become worthless. As for the merits of charting, I think using a basic moving average cross over to determine a trend can be helpful, I wouldn't say that it is predictive rather it is helpful statistically and can be matched up with other statistical features to be helpful. This is the world of trading and why algorithms and technicals are so closely guarded by the industry. Here have a read: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/24/business/24trading.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 Up to you, to me it shows the pattern of influence that I find helpful.
IMHO, you both need to change your mindset on what charting sets out to achieve. It is a play on probabilities, and thus is not right or wrong, but merely gives interpretive outcomes that were either likely or not. Milo touched on this.... Fundamentalists, however, like to consider charting predictive, as it serves as a defence in relation to the abysmal ability of fundamental theory to predict anything useful.
I've stated basically what charting is and agree with you in spirit of what you are saying. However my view differs, a count can be wrong or right, yes it is clearly based on statistical evidence of probabilities and has a 'probable predictive' quality to it, the typical layperson will interpret this as being so. Where I diverge is any position I take is either "proven" or "not proven" to me this is very semantically similar to right or wrong. Counts can be very successfully traded if correct (right). Being on a 3rd wave that goes into a impulsive extension with a trailing stop loss is a winning trade that has skill in determining and is not mere luck. I use the original Ralph Elliott Wave without "X" or "Y" etc. waves created by his self proclaimed successors. It's far more useful. I think Ralph really got it right about the whole nature and force of it and the wave analogy really fits, everything appears to have this impulsive force. And there is only one correct count, we see the phenomena aka "game theory", "law of attraction" etc. explained so eloquently by Ralph's work. I agree fundamentals has consistently shown to be terrible in indicating performance, why? Because markets and their movements simply don't function that way until the reality hits it, like a physical shortage or bankruptcy etc. Then fundamentals is where you want to be. A food shortage, silver shortage, water shortage, these things are real and do impact on markets. But where supply can meet demand then we are in another realm. Basically my point is right or wrong can be applied however it's never as concrete as what people believe those terms to mean. For example many nimble traders have strategies and can even reverse their trade position if the price moves against them, thus turning a losing trade into a winning one. What we see by the chart that I created is a clear bear market trend line with a reasonable count to a Fibonacci Retracement level that often is a reversal point along with a double bottom support, another thing we typically find with a reversal. If we do reverse here then the 5th Wave of the Major C correction was "truncated" which means the downwards momentum was not impulsive enough and was a 'bear market failure'. Having said that it is statistically significant that the potential upside move may be "very" impulsive as any market failure to the upside or downside often results in a multiple wave extension in the opposition direction. At which point going long would be what long term technical traders would do. With targets of 1.618%, 2.618%, 3.618% etc. That's just my thoughts.
I do accept that certain chart formations can be indicative of a change in direction. Probabilities can be applied as such. It might be ok in short trades with stop losses. It is, however, the elusive bottom that will not magically appear on the charts. There is about 4 maybe 5 possibilities......each one broken in turn will bring this bear to a halt. The end of a bull is when buyers are no longer present. What we are waiting for is a complete lack of sellers.
