Wow, that sounds interesting. I pay attention to Elliott Waves - there might be something in it. One could also observe the bat pattern on the gold graph... It looks like it doesn't want to fall lower. But I guess you should ask Goldman Sachs whether they're planning to make a sale or buy in :lol:
In completely bogus markets one cannot rely on any technical or fundamental analysis. When you can print up any amount of cash and sell any amount of naked short positions into markets who other than the banksters and their supporting treasuries can predict the moves. I agree with Rickards that it is not the current move up that is interesting but the failure to push prices down despite massive paper selling these past weeks, that we should focus on. Analysts predict a significant fall these next few weeks leading into August retesting $19+ in Ag and $1240-60 in Au. Who knows if this will come to pass. In our crazy world it is as likely to spike up to $1400. Short term it's anyone's guess, medium to long term it's up and up significantly. That move will almost certainly correlate with a loss in confidence in the general markets, currencies and central banks. I think when Yellen announces resumption of QE and reverses the non-existent taper that may be the start? What I predict is a lot more suffering and death before that day.
Quite a long time ago I became convinced the markets are not fair dinkum, manipulated even, one of the reasons a chart or a wave is irrelevant. I have bought PMs on the expectation that when the SHTF Day dawns, they will react upwards very rapidly as confidence disappears world wide. I give little thought to what the price is today, tomorrow or the day after, for I will sell my first ASE 2 or 3 years after the big day. JMO OC
That is a very realistic approach OC. Perhaps you wont sell your first ASE 2 years after the big move up, but you may swap it. One thing we know for sure is that a system that is not sustainable will eventually collapse. It is amazing how few people get it and constantly sell their PM for cash each time the market moves up. These are not real moves but agonal spasms. I agree with you the real move up is in reality a collapse in paper money and it is not that far away.
Indeed, I don't think the collapse has been averted. We're heading down the slope, even if nothing "big" is obvious to most people. The current West-Russia financial-trade warfare is undermining the petrodollar. I'm watching the developments closely and there has never been a bigger blow to the petrodollar than what Russia is doing right now. Financial wars, trade wars, currency wars...
Much of the geopolitical stuff seems like business as usual. But we are heading into uncharted territory with the world flooded with cheap money being pumped into assets on scales never before seen. Add to this the complex, interlinked nature of the world's financial systems, the speed at which information and rumours spread, the speed at which effects propagate and the continuing inability of governments to take decisive action, and I can see us heading into the mother of all SHTF scenarios. Maybe it'll happen next week, or maybe we can go on like this for several more years. Who knows. But one thing is certain, the longer things continue as they are, the worse it will be when piper is finally paid.
Central banks will decide what happens with gold. They were net sellers for decades. They became net buyers in 2011. 1997 -326 tonnes $331 1998 -363 tonnes $294 1999 -477 tonnes $279 2000 -479 tonnes $279 2001 -520 tonnes $271 2002 -547 tonnes $310 2003 -620 tonnes $363 2004 -479 tonnes $410 2005 -663 tonnes $445 2006 -370 tonnes $603 2007 -484 tonnes $695 2008 -236 tonnes $872 2009 -30 tonnes $972 2010 -77 tonnes $1224 2011 +455 tonnes $1572 2012 +534.6 tonnes $1669 2013 +369 tonnes $1411.23 And gold ETF's also still have something to say: 1997 0 1998 0 1999 0 2000 0 2001 0 2002 3 2003 39 2004 133 2005 208 2006 260 2007 253 2008 321 2009 617 2010 367.7 2011 154.0 2012 279.1 2013 -880.8 See, they aren't done dumping yet. 2634.8 tonnes total. 880.8 tonnes dumped. 1754 tonnes left to dump. 1/3 done, 2/3 to do.
Gary Wagner wouldn't be surprised if gold fell to 1,180 $. Video on Kitco: http://www.kitco.com/news/video/sho...Falling-To-$1180-Wouldnt-Surprise-This-Trader
