Don't shoot the messenger...argue against or for the message - http://seekingalpha.com/article/2751755-gold-running-out-of-its-safe-haven-steam?ifp=0 .
And in spite of this, gold futures are down and mark my word, we haven't seen the bottom in gold yet. Some safe haven. Now that's not to say there will be no more bull markets for gold....I am long term bullish on this metal....it's just that I think it's being seen less as a safe haven than it used to be perhaps. Times change quickly. .
You sound rather confident on your predictions! I assume you are putting your money where your mouth is and going short on gold? The last 40 years are just a blip in financial history, don't be focused on the next 6 months focus on the next 6 years. Put it this way, you are not going to have better luck leaving your cash sitting in a 3% pa savings account. Nor would I be leaving it in the stock market as Japans recession, Europe's recession is just getting started, and China's slow down is just beginning too. Even Australia is starting to show signs of serious issues. And once the recession and deflation is avoided it then gives way to hyper inflation. Awesome times ahead for gold bugs, I am buying as much as I can right now. On the article you posted Wall street geek, says it all. A decade of manipulation by banks on gold - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ows-signs-of-decade-of-bank-manipulation.html Barclays, Deutsche Bank among others manipulate the price of gold - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...he-bank-accused-of-gold-fix-manipulation.html Gold prices are being kept artificially low by Western Central Banks and "no one alive" has ever seen the true price of gold, according to Chris Powell, Secretary of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA). GATA, an organization co-founded by Powells in 1998, claims that central bankers have been manipulating markets for decades, by overstating the amount of gold they hold in reserves to give the impression that there's abundant supply of bullion in order to depress prices - http://www.cnbc.com/id/100551966#. So an article saying 'hey there is something strange happening to gold right now' doesn't hold much water. And what about an article on the fact that the swiss referendum went no where, oil is down to $65 a barrel, FED ending QE, wall street had its biggest rally in 4 years all the while gold has defied predictions of $1000 by end of 2014 is holding at above $1220 USD? The FED just stopped QE 2 months ago and Wall Street want to break out the champagne already. They are not all stupid though, I was chatting with one trader though who seems to have a lot of luck with stocks and he said he is long on gold miners so not all of Wall Street are against gold, just some who need something to write about. Gold is an easy target because it's their number one enemy... Plus don't forget now Alan Greenspan is one of us!
^^^ good reply but why would you be buying now if you expect a deflation where PM prices are likely to drop further?
Unrest in the world has been propping gold up. The next period of calm should see pms fall again. As long as the USD is in an uptrend, pms are almost assuredly going to decline. Joey, we don't even get 3/10s of 1% on savings accounts in the US.
I think its' at least 50/50 that gold would drop during deflation, sure the dollar gains but complete confidence is also lost. Turmoil in financial markets is gold's best friend. There's lots of arguments for gold during deflation. Besides most people tend to agree that governments will do anything to avoid it even if it's means putting the economy on the fast track to inflation.
Well we are most likely going to be following you, our reserve bank has hinted at a couple of rate drops next year.
True, and gold also functions as money for CB's....something that is otherwise a rare thing for gold in the rest of the world since gold doesn't function as money for the vast majority of people (rich or poor) in the world. That said, it doesn't mean that gold prices will rise in the near term. In fact, I'm confident that they will drop to lower lows than we have seen in many years....and yet I am long term bullish on gold. But maybe I'm just a "goldbug". The whole point of the article is that the "safe haven" notion of gold seems to not be a reality today based on the measurable indicators noted. Who am I to argue against those indicators showing this lack of a "safe haven" feeling by many investors? .
They stack both, but far, far, far more paper than gold, including the Chinese. Curious as to who misinformed you about the Central Bank assets? http://www.cumber.com/content/misc/G5_Charts.pdf
This idea that the paper-fiat $ gains strength in a massive deflation is based on ?? The last massive deflation was in the 1930's and then the dollar was a representation of gold. What makes you think that the worlds population will step behind a failed central bank and back paper notes they can spew out forever, rather than a metal limited in supply? Basing economic predictions on data prior to Nixon's closing of the gold window and cutting gold's link to the dollar is dangerous and without foundation. I have yet to hear a good explanation of this from any of the Harry Dents of the world. Gold is money all the rest is debt.
Surely the price of gold at the moment is dictated by a massive paper market that barely, if at all, represents the metal market. The price is so manipulated by speculators separate to the commodity itself, that it would be hard to find those who know what it is "really" worth. We are trusting that when the stock markets fail or at least seriously falter, when derivative trading gets banned as being of little community benefit, when the last barrel of oil is being pumped out of the ground, that people are looking for something 'solid' that represents real value. The "safe haven" that we aim for is that gold will hold value once the paper market gets shredded.
Productive agricultural land with good soils, water rights and within reasonable distance to transport infrastructure.
Except that, in the same way as PMs can be confiscated or ownership otherwise made onerous, so land can be controlled using things like development applications. In the US, there is eminent domain. In Australia, good luck if some energy company decides to go fracking your countryside. Or some sod decides to sink deeper wells with bigger pumps and effectively steals the water from under your land (happened around Gunnedah). Or they decide they'd like to put a dam in above your property on the creek (happened in the Darling system). My sister had x gigalitres of water rights and not a drop of water available in an irrigation district. Unfortunately, if you don't already have wealth and power, all assets are f___able by those with the power and pollies to be bought.
Deflation is money gaining strength against other assets. Currently, the majority of the world considers fiat, not gold, to be money. People keep combining events together that will be spread out over time. The USD is currently gaining strength against most currencies and most commodities. If/when the SHTF, there will be a reflexive run to the USD & US Bonds. That will be the time to exit USD positions and transfer the money into other investments. I own some gold just in case. But for the last year plus, I have been converting assets to USDs whenever I could get a good price for that asset. The pm community is a small minority of the population and it doesn't matter what our opinion is of the US Government and the USD. Most of the world still sees the USD as a safe haven asset. The current strength of the US economy and the unrest in other parts of the world is only reinforcing that belief. The effect of lower oil prices on the economies of the oil producing countries will also add to the strength of the USD. In time, the tide will turn against the USD, but right now, it is full speed ahead and that is bad for commodities, including pms. Crow, we will all be long dead when the last barrel of oil is pumped out of the ground. There are plenty of minerals left in the ground for those of us living today.
