It's kind of nice seeing the Australian gold chart up, but having the USD gold chart next to it facing in the exact opposite direction is just a constant reminder how badly the AUD is getting smacked. Do you think many Australians know that 5% the value of their savings was wiped out in the last couple weeks? I know $0.77 was the aim, at what point are they going to try to slow things down? We've lost nearly 20% since the beginning of the year, that seems less controlled than it does free fall. We still have at least one more imminent rate cut plus one rise in the states...I can't believe I didn't buy USD at 0.89 because I was waiting for it to hit 0.90 again. Who wants to take bets on where the aussie will be the day after the US hike? I think $1600 gold is looking reasonable regardless of the USD price unless something odd happens. I actually think the USD is cruising for a bruising but not until it has a few more shining moments. I'm taking bets, one ounce to the person who guesses the peak DXY and another for whoever picks low dollar this year, to the nearest cent. You can come back in December and I'll make good. One guess each, if you live over seas you pay your own postage. If nobody gets either I'll contribute an ounce to the next charity auction. This isn't an April fools joke.
The RBAs (public) target rate is US 75 cents and its reasonable to assume it could hit 70 cents later in the year. The dollar drop today is because of strong speculation that an interest rate cut is coming in May. It is also increasingly likely that Australia could fall into a recession by the end of the year. All this is very negative for our dollar.
73% (today) chance of a cut on Tuesday http://www.asx.com.au/prices/targetratetracker.htm I would think that $1600 AUD gold will happen not long after this if the RBA does cut IMO opinion the DXY will continue to rise unless the Fed completely reverses policy or the ECB is forced to taper its QE program which could send the Euro up against the USD at least temporarily
You think we're nearly bottomed? I don't share your confidence! Everyone is entitled to one guess though
Like a fat kid on a cupcake EUR/USD buy order got taken out at 10 lots x 100:1 leverage for 45 pips for $4500 USD profit Going big on Tuesday's RBA decision on both sides of the trade
It's really a close call. Even if the RBA doesn't cut, with the forward guidance indicating a cut in May is pretty much assured if they don't cut on Tuesday, it won't take long for the market to start pricing it in. My price is roughly 0.7450 on the low side but I'll take anything from 100-150 pips depending where it is when the decision hits. On the high side I'm aiming for only around 40 pips as I believe if there is a spike if there is no cut, it will be short lived and I play it conservatively going against the longer trend.
I was way off on AUD, but I reckon I've got a claim on the DXY. I called 101, Investing.com tells me last years high was 100.71.
