You are assuming that a few hundred of these new rich people are interested in buying Pandas. Some almost certainly might be interested in adding Pandas to their portfolio but many may just put their money into paper markets or international real estate where they can speculate and make lots more money than sitting on physical Pandas for years. If instead these wealthy people who are buying physical Pandas are not sitting on them for years but waiting to flip them in a few weeks or a couple of months, then this game of pump and dump is a short term game and the prices are sure to come way down when the last of the suckers have way overpaid and cannot find an even bigger sucker to pawn them off to. Prices will have to drop at that point. I can not be certain about how many people in China are actually buying Pandas but I don't think there's anyone who really knows. If 1/2 of 1% are buying then I think this is a very liberal estimate. If you have facts that show otherwise and these facts can be corroborated, I am willing to concede that I might be way off. I think I am not so far off though. .
1996 ASE = 3.6 million coins = 3x spot 10-million-mintage-panda = ???x spot Population of USA = 320 million Number of Americans per 1996 ASE = 89(is) Population of China = 1350 million Number of Chinese per 10-million-mintage-panda = 135 That's how it could happen. Whether it does or not is anyone's guess.
If the published total mintages for the previous year Pandas are correct, none of them ever reach the projected maximums. One thing consistent though is that the mintages of ASEs and CSMLs for corresponding years are way higher.
I've got a big stash in the treasure chest, I especially like the diamond eyes. And I seriously wonder if this was really ever for sale, or was it a joke? lol.
I don't know who's behind it, but it's the real deal. All kinds of these coins, bars & rounds are sold on eBay. Yes, SOLD. http://www.ebay.com/sch/universalx/m.html Interested in a 4th of July Panda..? :lol: http://www.ebay.com/itm/4TH-OF-JULY...SILVER-ART-BAR-ILR-RAINBOW-MINT-/281704655992
Just passing along the info, mate. Check out his past sold listings via feedback.. Glow-in-the-dark Koala! http://www.ebay.com/itm/GLOW-IN-THE...SILVER-ART-BAR-ILR-RAINBOW-MINT-/281685871781
BREAKING: Just heard rumors from the inner circle that "4th of July Panda" will be having its IPO on the exchange next week.. BUY BUY BUY!
I would listen to Yennus, I would he think he has a better feel for the Chinese market than most here.
Amen justfishing. Im not one to argue with him on the Pandas. I'm just a bit skeptical on how the Pandas don't get relegated to an average bullion coin, like the eagle, when many, many more millions (10, 20, 30 million) are minted. I'm not a believer, nor a buyer. However, I hope I'm wrong.
The problem with that example is that you are using a 20 year (nearly) old coin. Let's stick to what the real issue is. Is the 2015 Panda really worth more than several USD $ over spot? The answer, in my opinion, is no for the reason already given. Speculators can hype then pump and dump anything and the perceived value will be driven artificially higher. This almost always ends bad for the last group of people on that relay race because at some point, we will run out of speculators who are willing to pay as much or more as the speculators who want to dump. Smart collectors would have already purchased the Panda at original cost when the Pandas were a few $ over spot or if they didn't they know they can always wait for better prices. After all, there are millions of these things in existence. .
Look at the prices that the 2011, 2012 and 2013 Pandas currently achieve - all of these Pandas were minted in the millions. All of them are above spot. It's highly likely that in 5years time, the 2015 Panda will also be worth many more dollars over spot.
I agree Yennus...However, I think that tune will change with unlimited mintage (if true). I will no longer be a buyer of Pandas. But for the sake of my friends buying globs and globs of these 2015's, and beyond, I do hope you are right. 23'ish for a 2015, when eagles are 19'ish, maybe not so high, as long as they keep the mintage below 8 million...
1) I never asserted that the 2015 Panda should be selling for below or at spot. My argument has been that it's not really worth more than several USD $ over spot. I found 2 days ago dealers selling the 2015 Panda for a few $ over spot...that's about the right price. 2) That may be true about the price in 5 years, but 5 years is a long time for many people. And just because in 5 years the 2015 Panda may achieve more significant premiums than just several $ over spot that the Panda can be purchased today from some dealers, it doesn't mean that the price of the 2015 Panda isn't being driven artificially higher today because of speculators....I think it is if you see prices of more than USD $40 for a bullion coin minted in the millions. 3) I can buy 2015 Pandas for USD $23.40 to about $26 (depending on volume) all day long: http://www.providentmetals.com/2015-chinese-silver-panda-coin.html http://www.bgasc.com/product/2015-1...YPBg4gkFU1H-Anc7rojpbgKMP9R_58-rVNBoCItrw_wcB http://www.apmex.com/product/84931/2015-china-1-oz-silver-panda-bu-in-capsule-june-5th .
The significant price up of the china silver and gold coin in china is due to the speculation of the electronics platform recently. How you ship a significant quantity to the buyer at china? Do you know them? so many questions to solve before you can get it done.
6 millions, 8 millions are just the MAXIMUM mintage, doesn't mean there will have 6m/8m coins in the market.
