Average of $13 by 2019 says a French bank http://www.bulliondesk.com/silver-news/focus-silver-to-trend-towards-14oz-year-end-socgen-91939/ $14 by the end of 2015
Same bank....2011 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...till-intact-after-plunge-socgen-s-wilson-says "Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Gold's bull rally is still intact even after the metal's drop of as much as 8 percent from a record set yesterday, said David Wilson, an analyst at Societe Generale SA. Gold futures reached a record $1,917.90 in New York yesterday before erasing the gain and today slumped as much as 5.2 percent to $1,763.80 as increased orders for U.S. durable goods eroded demand for the metal as a haven asset. Wilson spoke by phone today from London. "Gold typically corrects when it hits psychological important levels, and my guess is $1,900 is a key level. ''The uptrend is still very much intact'' and bullion will likely reach $2,000 by the end of the year, he said. " " So what makes them worth listening to in the first place? French banks are some of the biggest banking lenders to Greece. What is really funny about this is the six month chart for gold in euros. Bet socgen wished they had hedged their euro funds with gold with is up 18% in Euros since the end of last October.
Good job digging up old claims. Another example-case on how bulls try to throw their victims up in the air upto the last day of the bull trend. ***SWAP*** Just like how bears try to push their victims down till the ground upto the last day of the bear trend. I now look at what they do rather than what they say. date hedge*5000oz $lbma > projected bottomhedge10000-price 14/04/2015 41980 $16.08 > $13.8 07/04/2015 50438 $16.86 > $13.97 31/03/2015 49861 $16.60 > $13.75 24/03/2015 39242 $16.97 > $14.88 17/03/2015 30210 $15.56 > $14.1 10/03/2015 33263 $15.78 > $14.1 03/03/2015 39712 $16.42 > $14.3 10/02/2015 53457 $16.80 > $13.7 03/02/2015 56199 $17.59 > $14.29 27/01/2015 61593 $17.87 > $14.18 20/01/2015 55641 $17.80 > $14.54 13/01/2015 46804 $17.00 > $14.37 06/01/2015 36951 $16.47 > $14.54 30/12/2014 38636 $16.25 > $14.20 23/12/2014 33732 $15.71 > $14.01 16/12/2014 33997 $15.87 > $14.16 09/12/2014 35357 $17.12 > $15.31 02/12/2014 26576 $16.31 > $15.13 25/11/2014 22043 $16.56 > $15.69 18/11/2014 18367 $16.08 > $15.48 04/11/2014 12408 $15.77 (lowest position of the 3-4 months cyclus) Abit under $14 looks like having a chance. Abit lower than the past shortlived $14.3 flash on 30 november 2014, where price was sold down from $15.6 to $14.3 as a 2-hike vertical, where the last suckers sold. Then, the next day 1 december 2014, it was bought back up to $16.8. Later on, 21 january 2015, it was driven till its peak since: $18.5, where the last suckers bought. Another example-case, for gold then: http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2013/08/15/gold-bull-paulson-cuts-spdr-stake-by-half-amid-bea Many example-case out there, forums included.
It was exactly such hedging that drove the gold price up. Just look at http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=d1 where the green (or red+blue) trendline, for the 1st time since 2012, hit the 200000 again. And just like any futures hedge, it's bound to be dumped again, since those contracts are ment to chew out peoples euros not peoples gold.
Could be. Thanks for the reply. Greece is to hard to call now though and it is the joker in the deck. As ever anyone who tries to put a figure on future gold prices without knowing the future of geopolitics will be wrong.....hard to see how low the euro could go.....
A future is less hard to draw once you understand why and how the central planning / geopolitics, and their sponsored buddies, operate. A financial future is abit easier to draw: every stock of a nonperishable product is bound to be sold again, wherein the price trend it caused, gets undone again. This, superimposed on the general inflation (money creation > spending > inability to produce more at a same cost) trend. Then, the euro, is nothing but a value relative to the values of other currencies, that all are values relative to other / general products that people / savers buy. When central planners with different currencies, work together, then that relative value to other currencies becomes meaningless, in the sense that the euro just goes as low as the central planners, as a whole, want it to go. The goal of a cooperating-common monetary policy, is exactly to limit those relative value differences / fluctuations. The euro is essentially nothing but a fruit of such a common monetary policy. The central planners of each country / currency cooperated to keep the value fluctuations (caused by speculators / savers) within two limits. This was/is known in their policy documents "slang" language as "snake in the tunnel", where every individual currency appears on a value trend as a snake that zigzags through time between those central planners' settings/limits. So, it's not so hard to see how low the euro can go, just draw lines between previous peaks and bottoms, and you see the graphical representation of their settings. The value of the euro relative to general/other products (so general prices), is another, and different story, driven by a marketwide pool of savings / purchasing power that seeks to evade the central planned theft. The most likely scenario that I see, is a series of major currencies fluctuations until enough bank account-saved money from people got shifted towards risk (bloated prices), and got stolen / lost that way. At the moment, the major currency inbetween-relative values sit on tunnel boundaries. Means a reversal is imminent. Last week, thursday and friday, euro stock markets noted big sales. The newspaper here had in an article that they didn't see clear reasons for the sales. Well, there is a pretty obvious clear one though: the stocks sit now on 8 year-highs, and their owners start to cease resisting to materialize the paper profits. During the last 6 weeks, newspaper showed over a dozen specific articles about how good stocks were / are, how big the profits were / are, how alot young people went into risk by buying stocks in 2015. That, tends to be a strong indicator for major trend reversals. Because, in order to reap the profits coupled to the high paper-valued stocks, they need as much suckers buying-high. Remember gold end summer 2012, where it reached its highest numerical annual average and peaks ever, in my country the prime newspaper had gold on its frontpage then. Mere weeks later, the last suckers bought, and they all hammered the sell buttons. Greece (s State) isn't a joker, it's a fixed card in the set of the central planners. They decide what happens, and they will never decide agains another government / buddy. They do suggest different of course, to lure speculators into decisions that transfer their savings to the accounts of the legal thieves. This is how I see it. It's (strategy) based on historical data and a variety of books and papers. I know that the past doesn't dictate the future, but I do know that the future starts with it. The future of geopolitics is a designed one. It only fails to manifest as planned when "geospeculation" becomes smarter. But this "war" is pretty uneven, forcebased cooperating know-alls versus powerless individual know-littles that "at best" shift-through their loss to another one just like them.
The only and I'm interested in is a good old fashioned round 50c... That and security bags of the new $2 Anzac.... If you have some I up for grabs pm me and I will fight you for them!
An update: date hedge*5000oz $lbma > projected bottomhedge10000-price 21/04/2015 33836 $16.08 > $14.38 14/04/2015 41980 $16.08 > $13.8 The 'projected bottomprice' jumped back up to above $14.
Weekly COT report: WARNING SIGN FLASHING !!! Banks have been increasing short contracts against gold in the past week; when everyone else was reducing shorts. Apparently Banks knew something about this coming FOMC meeting; ahead of time as usual. Gold might suffer another smackdown to 1,150 USD next week; prolly on Wednesday FOMC minutes. Silver might hit below 15 USD.
A buyer, that thinks that the price is gonna rise, needs a seller, that thinks the price is gonna drop. A bull needs a bear. On a net basis, one cannot increase a net position (regardless short or long) without another one decreasing the net opposite position. It's an interaction, one on the initiative side, another on the willing counterparty side. Usually, bullion banks tend to NOT be the initiative side, they act on behalf of / on request from, clients. The last century, there were 2 major bears, and it took the buy-at-top side (193x) a whole generation - 40 years, to be able to pass the loss to a new generation (198x). Todays (2011/x) story probably won't be different. On financial markets, especially of the zero-sum kind, flashing warning signs tend to popup post-mortem, when the bull becomes bear, and.needs a sucker to get a cheapskate back-in.
1 month later. Another update on the futures market. trading day of COT report - data / total net position in contracts of 5000 ounces / projected bottomprice based on a bottom total net position of 10000 (so for ex 61663 - 10000 = 51663) and an estimate of a 70 Moz supply/demand change per price dollar. 19/05/2015 61663 $17.40 > $13.71 <- big position #2 12/05/2015 38103 $16.46 > $14.45 05/05/2015 37250 $16.42 > $14.44 28/04/2015 33999 $16.32 > $14.6 21/04/2015 33836 $16.08 > $14.38 14/04/2015 41980 $16.08 > $13.8 07/04/2015 50438 $16.86 > $13.97 31/03/2015 49861 $16.60 > $13.75 24/03/2015 39242 $16.97 > $14.88 17/03/2015 30210 $15.56 > $14.1 10/03/2015 33263 $15.78 > $14.1 03/03/2015 39712 $16.42 > $14.3 10/02/2015 53457 $16.80 > $13.7 <- alot sales and/or demand drops on the cash market around $17 03/02/2015 56199 $17.59 > $14.29 27/01/2015 61593 $17.87 > $14.18 <- big position #1 The last price column serves as a reflection of what happens on the real/cash market. So far, that projected $13.7 "bottom of the bottoms" seems to hold. Whether we'll also see that price, will depend on the willingness of current silver owners to sell at it. Without, those on the futures market can bring the price wherever they want. For ex, we now have seen 2 times a 61000+ total net position. This happened commonly during 2009-2010. But not anymore since 2011, where the buying-in got overruled by grab the profit. Big position #2 has a $0.47 lower projected bottom than big position #1 so that's still a plot on the existing downtrend. Whether it is the last or not, is an open question. Last year a same just-before-mid-year upspike in the total net position (and also in the price) occurred. http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=w1 Maybe they think saving people gonna get their vacation money they gonna want to save in silver let's try to inflict them a higher price. Just 1 theory. What is sure is that the speed of the position change is high on the multiyear term. The green trendline shows faster and more ups and downs. The longer gradual slopes are gone.
