In a rising market there will always be corrections. Going back over the last 3 bull markets the average duration of consecutive weekly gains were 10.7 weeks, 9 weeks and 4 weeks (the current bull run). Of course this run still has time to play out so the average will likely be greater than 4 as it's currently 6 straight weeks of gains. So it's only a matter of time until we see a dip. For example the period Dec 2023 - Feb 2024 saw on balance volume falling with a corresponding decline in the POG, so it would be worthwhile keeping in mind that whatever predicated that decline could signal another fall in prices. But at this stage I can't see that playing out as even the markets have worked out that the Fed is not going to cut rates, and you can add sabre rattling by megalomaniacs and religious fundamentalists protecting their positions of power which always comes at the expense of the people into that mix as well. So to put it simply, upside potential is greater than down.
So what is the dip exactly?What is considered a dip? $1? $50? or higher. What I meant to say is gold is only going up so if you are waiting on a big dip($200-300) that wont happen.$30-50 is nothing when spot is at $3500.
Gold is only going to keep going up until it doesn't. How much it dips after its new peak is dependant upon many variables. If you're looking for technical indicators then maybe when it crosses the 200 DMA, or is in the oversold range of the RSI, or it's breached a resistance zones, or you could also target buy/sell zones using whatever strategy you like to target dips, however large they are. Gold's volatility historically hovers around the 15% mark, so we can expect the price to move within that zone around the mean. Or if we're going to target buy/sell zones using historical price action then looking at the last 3 falls from the August 2020 high have been 12.5%, 14.8% and 4.7% respectively. Averaging that say we get around 10.5%, which takes us down to about USD2086 which is pretty close to the Dec 2023 peak, a USD240 decline. What's that, AUD360? Now of course whether it gets there or not is another thing. Alternatively if you take the Oct 2023 low and assume that gold has peaked, then maybe you'd be looking at somewhere in the USD1955 - USD2080 zone, a decline of up to USD375. Now, that being said, I was using a mixture of strategies to identify a dip in early 2023 (my target would've been in the 1700 - 1800 range I'd say) and it didn't quite get there so I was left on the fence. So maybe USD2200 is more in order? If the price is just going to hum along up or down by USD20 - 30 ie consolidate in a channel then I wouldn't even bother buying any.
And just for shits and giggles, if we overlay the Nov 2018 - Aug 2020 price action on the current chart, we get USD2800 by Aug 2025. Alternatively, if we overlay the Dec 2008 - Aug 2011 price action on the current chart we get USD3100 by about July 2026.
I'm not sure that the current market environment (China/India et al driving demand) is analogous to "normal" market trading (Wall Street/London contolling futures action), so I wonder how instructive the normal technical indicators really are. IMO, the biggest indicator for what gold is going to do is China's fiscal and economic health. I guess we'll see!
Gold is a commodity, so while the thematic drivers underlying the rise/fall in its price may not always be clearly visible eg OTC purchases may not be reflected in ETF volumes, CBs, jewellery manufacturers, investment houses, mining companies, mints etc are buying and selling that commodity with money and the charts reflect the prices that the market is willing to pay for it.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut have been slashed over the past month from a 25% likelihood down to a 5%, expectations that would support the USD in its current range: @JohnnyBravo300 that H&S pattern looks to have broken down.
Well doesn't look like Gavin Newsome is running for POTUS dammit. He could have been the next gold stackers hero but I guess not! We will have to leave it to Drumph or Brandons big spending to keep this momentum rolling. Just imagine if Newsome won. It would be a party straight from the Venezuelan playbook.
Barring someone hard core like Ron Paul (who is much too old now), it really doesn't matter who the next POTUS is. Fedgov is pretty much in a fiscal doom loop (interest on the debt is now driving the car). Over 60% of the Federal budget is already non-discretionary (Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security). Good luck cutting the military budget in today's geopolitical tinderbox. Once more folks start realizing we're already in boiling water, Wall/Main Street might join China/India/et al in buying gold.
war is the only way US is making money…thus, all talks with Israel (who’s actually paying) aren’t fruitful…
Yeah I know it doesn't matter who POTUS is. I just like the drama and 95% of people identify as one or the other and it's fun to have a hero. I like to agree with everything they say and watching their face makes me smile. I try to imagine Yellen in a Wonder Woman outfit but it's not working for me. If she could pull that off I'd grant her 10 extra diversity points for being a woman.
I was thinking a little crusty around the edges from seepage with a whiff of lobster sauce and burning tires. I would need alot of beers and I'd have to be pretty pissed at my wife to want that. Maybe I'd ask for a new dirt bike too.
