Opposite View of Precious Metal Bugs.

[SpacePete]

Lots of crankiness here.

Probably both sides are correct (to a degree) and that the real debate is about timing.

Silver still has some potential downside dependent on short-term economic conditions, but the upside is far greater over the longer term when measured against the buying power of dollars over the same period.

So what if silver falls a couple of dollars? A few dollars here or there now is sweet-fuck-all compared to the longer term trashing of the dollar and the massive risk we are facing in a world flooded with easy money being pumped into riskier and riskier investments for continually diminishing yield.

Fight all you want, but you can only trust what you hold.

 

[Cheepo]

Lots of crankiness here.

Probably both sides are correct (to a degree) and that the real debate is about timing.

Silver still has some potential downside dependent on short-term economic conditions, but the upside is far greater over the longer term when measured against the buying power of dollars over the same period.

So what if silver falls a couple of dollars? A few dollars here or there now is sweet-turtle-all compared to the longer term trashing of the dollar and the massive risk we are facing in a world flooded with easy money being pumped into riskier and riskier investments for continually diminishing yield.

Fight all you want, but you can only trust what you hold.

Absolutely. Over the long term, silver is a great investment. The question is: 1) how long is long term? 2) are there better investments? I don't have the answer to either.

 

[Peter]

The question is what will you do with your capital otherwise.
R.e? In the stockmarket? Bank?under the bed?
What if there's a crash?
Lots think there will be.
How can you be so sure there won't be.

If there isn't a crash you'll be proved right.
If there is a crash what will happen to you?

I dearly hope your proved right.

 

[Cheepo]

The question is what will you do with your capital otherwise.
R.e? In the stockmarket? Bank?under the bed?
What if there's a crash?

During the last four years it would have been better to buy shares or put the cash under your bed, rather than buy silver. What about the next four years?

 

[mmissinglink]

Investing your money in X or Y or just sitting on it all boils down to opportunity cost...doesn't it?

And what is the essence of opportunity cost? I'd posit risk vs return/reward.



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[rainy day]

If you have a mortgage pay that off first.

 

[rainy day]

Silver is more for insurance for me, not buy sell. If it rose now to forty would you sell or think it might go to sixty? Stacking means holding. Don't be too greedy, keep emotions in check, pay all your debts off. If you want to earn buy a rental property probably domestic. In australia for 300k house $300 per week rent which is 5 per cent. Minus insurance and rates bit under 4% per annum. So you could spend that 4% on silver and still have fresh capital coming in. I am worried about banker bail ins if you talk to citizens electoral council of australia they say the legislation is there and this g20 summit it is on the agenda also.
Corruption is what it is all about. Never underestimate, i know you all don't. It is from top to bottom. Beneke is probably personally manipulating the gold silver to embarrass ron paul after their talk. Maybe we should all invest in a silver mine, we could all mine together happily ever after, digging at the dirt instead of each other. There are some mines here getting 10 ounce per tonne.
Cheers.

 

[rodmadman]

If you have a mortgage pay that off first.

But if the SHTF, wouldn't it be far more economical to use your PMs then than use fiat now?

 

[wrcmad]

I think the negativity against metals on SS is one of the most bullsh signs ever!

...... said every permabull ever.

 

[bordsilver]

One thing I have been wondering about this week is the possible impact of the massive increase in excess reserves held by depository institutions:

FYI See posts 29 and 30 in THIS OLD THREAD for a different way of viewing the excess reserves story. Guessing there isn't a single definitive story.

Also some previous discussion regarding velocity of money IS IN THIS THREAD

 

[mmissinglink]

To the stackers who somehow believe that silver is insurance...it's absolutely not. There's no assurance that your silver will even be worth as much in 25 years as it is today relative to other commodities or fiat money. Therefore silver may not consistently act as a good store of value....it's value is not guaranteed by anyone or anything.

Also, the notion that stacking means holding, is really largely disingenuous. That's because no sane stacker will hold their stack indefinitely no matter what. That means that there is always a reason (for virtually all stackers) that a stacker might see the need to sell. Afterall, a sane person doesn't store value just to store value indefinitely, no matter what. So the stackers that hold longer than others are no different than those who sell sooner. What is different is not the holding, but rather the reason for selling. All stackers hold; some for much longer than others and still all stackers hold until they see a need or a reason to sell.

And just because you are a stacker who holds longer doesn't mean that you are any less greedy than the stacker who sells sooner. Greed has no necessary role in the length of time a stacker holds their metal.

Please don't knock those stackers that sell sooner than you do. And please don't assume that I am a stacker who will sell before you just because I am critical of some of the arguments by some stackers. I have every intention of holding my stack for many years.

Have a nice day.




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[SpacePete]

To the stackers who somehow believe that silver is insurance...it's absolutely not. There's no assurance that your silver will even be worth as much in 25 years as it is today relative to other commodities or fiat money. Therefore silver may not consistently act as a good store of value....it's value is not guaranteed by anyone or anything.

You don't buy fire insurance with the hope your property will burn down (unless you're a developer with a heritage listed property).

Insurance is not investment.

Insurance: a thing providing protection against a possible eventuality.

Investment: time, energy, or matter spent in the hope of future benefits actualized within a specified date or time frame.

 

[Holdfast]

Maybe but...some folk stack and "really-do" have little intention of selling.

There's folk who spend all their hard earned cash on holidays, cars, tucker, gadgets etc and at the end of the year have nothing to show for their spending spree.

Some would rather for-go some of the above and instead... own a few ounces of physical metal.

Some buy silver just as one would fill-up their petrol tank or buy a bag of groceries.

 

[sammysilver]

Maybe but...some folk stack and "really-do" have little intention of selling.

There's folk who spend all their hard earned cash on holidays, cars, tucker, gadgets etc and at the end of the year have nothing to show for their spending spree.

Some would rather for-go some of the above and instead... own a few ounces of physical metal.

Some buy silver just as one would fill-up their petrol tank or buy a bag of groceries.

Yes, there needs to be some balance to a life. Different horses for courses of course, but if holding silver gives someone more pleasure than holding a woman, it is not for us to argue.

 

[renovator]

Maybe but...some folk stack and "really-do" have little intention of selling.

There's folk who spend all their hard earned cash on holidays, cars, tucker, gadgets etc and at the end of the year have nothing to show for their spending spree.

Some would rather for-go some of the above and instead... own a few ounces of physical metal.

Some buy silver just as one would fill-up their petrol tank or buy a bag of groceries.

Yes, there needs to be some balance to a life. Different horses for courses of course, but if holding silver gives someone more pleasure than holding a woman, it is not for us to argue.

correct that would be their therapists job to explain :lol:

 

[mmissinglink]

To the stackers who somehow believe that silver is insurance...it's absolutely not. There's no assurance that your silver will even be worth as much in 25 years as it is today relative to other commodities or fiat money. Therefore silver may not consistently act as a good store of value....it's value is not guaranteed by anyone or anything.

You don't buy fire insurance with the hope your property will burn down (unless you're a developer with a heritage listed property).

Insurance is not investment.

Insurance: a thing providing protection against a possible eventuality.

Investment: time, energy, or matter spent in the hope of future benefits actualized within a specified date or time frame.

Silver doesn't assure protection at all...never has....that's the whole point. We have many years of history to prove this. As just one of countless examples, if you started stacking in the beginning of 2011 and were forced to sell 2 1/2 years later...guess what, that investment of your money into silver as insurance turned out to be a very poor way to insure against loss.

Stacking is not insurance. If it were, it would ALWAYS be a guarantee against loss....but it isn't. Silver is a commodity and therefore investing your money into it when you buy physical silver is a speculative gamble because you have no clue what the future will be like and you have no clue when you may be force to sell and what the value of silver will be at that time.

Silver is not insurance no matter how much anyone wishes it were.



As for having "little intention of selling" I don't buy that. Because then what would you buy physical silver for in the first place...just to weigh down your basement floor (or wherever they store silver) for eternity no matter what? No, the idea behind stacking for those stackers who hold longer than others is as a store of wealth. You don't store wealth indefinitely and permanently no matter what circumstances arise. So, there is always the intention to sell (or exchange for goods and services)....even or especially if the current currency collapses. In such a time, these stackers (according to what I've been reading) believe that silver will hold some significant value greater than worthless. It is during such a time that die hard stackers have expressed that their store of wealth will be an important resource to be used to acquire things (whether that be necessities when they run out, food, more ammo, whatever...doesn't matter....it's about quality of life improvement (not frivolous either). The store of wealth is stored temporarily for the reason to be retrieved later and to be used to buy something at some point in a time of need.

If you disagree, explain in detail why you do and what sane person would store their silver permanently no matter what scenario arises. If a stacker ever needs to use part of his/her stack to acquire goods or services and is willing to do so....then guess what....that's stacking with the intention to sell when you perceive a need to.

It's no different than the person who perceives the need to sell part of their stack at the top of a bull cycle so that they can use the capital earned to acquire goods or services that this stacker perceives as needed or necessary.



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[rodmadman]

To the stackers who somehow believe that silver is insurance...it's absolutely not. There's no assurance that your silver will even be worth as much in 25 years as it is today relative to other commodities or fiat money. Therefore silver may not consistently act as a good store of value....it's value is not guaranteed by anyone or anything.

Also, the notion that stacking means holding, is really largely disingenuous. That's because no sane stacker will hold their stack indefinitely no matter what. That means that there is always a reason (for virtually all stackers) that a stacker might see the need to sell. Afterall, a sane person doesn't store value just to store value indefinitely, no matter what. So the stackers that hold longer than others are no different than those who sell sooner. What is different is not the holding, but rather the reason for selling. All stackers hold; some for much longer than others and still all stackers hold until they see a need or a reason to sell.
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Really? and what will they pay on the insurance claim when the insurance company goes bust or in the event of an economic collapse. BTW, I hope my kids will inherit my stack and I consider myself sane!

 

[Jislizard]

As for having "little intention of selling" I don't buy that. Because then what would you buy physical silver for in the first place...just to weigh down your basement floor (or wherever they store silver) for eternity no matter what? No, the idea behind stacking for those stackers who hold longer than others is as a store of wealth. You don't store wealth indefinitely and permanently no matter what circumstances arise. So, there is always the intention to sell (or exchange for goods and services)....even or especially if the current currency collapses. In such a time, these stackers (according to what I've been reading) believe that silver will hold some significant value greater than worthless.

There is a diverse group here and I can't speak to their motivations, but you have raised some good points and I can attempt to address some of them.

When I started out stacking you could buy silver for under spot value, it wasn't seen as an investment because it seemed to stay around the same price and gradually seemed to increase. This was before I was aware of daily price charts and bullion dealers. I mostly bought round 50 cents and predec off ebay and the prices were pretty stable.

At that time most of the articles I read described silver as a 'hedge against inflation' i.e. you could buy it now, and sell it in 20 years time and get back the same amount of purchasing power as it took to buy it all those years ago. Silver would go up at the same rate as inflation, getting more expensive each year, in line with inflation so when you go to sell you haven't lost out.

I treat it as an off-the-books, free-from-government-or-bank-interferrence, savings account. As such I have no intention of touching the savings account until I have something to spend it on. It isn't an everyday account, physical silver is too cumbersome to sell everytime I want to fill the car up with petrol or buy groceries with.

I could just put the money into a savings account instead of buying silver, but then the interest I earn would be taxed and at the end of it I might just about break even when you take inflation into consideration. But all that time I run the risk of banks shutting down, bail-ins and the banks using my money to perpetuate their fractional reserves or whatever other schemes they have thought up to make money out of nothing.

Now that I have a few more loans out I might just cash in the silver and use the money to pay off the loans quicker, which is what I would have done with a normal savings account anyway. The difference being that my savings account only has a couple of thousand dollars in it and my silver holding has increased because I have never gotten around to selling any.

So I pretty much just buy silver when I have a bit of spare cash at the end of the pay period and put it in a big pile until I need it.

But I also have my numis and some coins to speculate on, those I am happy to sell whenever the price is right. If I had kids then I would probably pass on the silver, as many members pass on their coin collections to the kids for future resale, a way of passing wealth down the generations. In the UK I think they still tax you when you die and I am not sure why Australia hasn't jumped on the band wagon, it will probably come. But by having something like silver that is not registered anywhere this would not be difficult to achieve, until the kids decide to sell it all and put the money in the bank, then I guess they will have to explain where it all came from.

 

[mmissinglink]

To the stackers who somehow believe that silver is insurance...it's absolutely not. There's no assurance that your silver will even be worth as much in 25 years as it is today relative to other commodities or fiat money. Therefore silver may not consistently act as a good store of value....it's value is not guaranteed by anyone or anything.

Also, the notion that stacking means holding, is really largely disingenuous. That's because no sane stacker will hold their stack indefinitely no matter what. That means that there is always a reason (for virtually all stackers) that a stacker might see the need to sell. Afterall, a sane person doesn't store value just to store value indefinitely, no matter what. So the stackers that hold longer than others are no different than those who sell sooner. What is different is not the holding, but rather the reason for selling. All stackers hold; some for much longer than others and still all stackers hold until they see a need or a reason to sell.
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Really? and what will they pay on the insurance claim when the insurance company goes bust or in the event of an economic collapse. BTW, I hope my kids will inherit my stack and I consider myself sane!

You're missing the whole point. To what ends are you leaving your stack to your kids??? So they can use it to keep the basement floor weighed down??? Don't you see, that store of wealth is for the purpose of eventually cashing that in in a time of need, whether that cashing in is in your lifetime (which you have no way of knowing that it won't be) or in your kids' lifetime. The end result is the same as the stacker who cashes in at the height of a bull cycle.




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[mmissinglink]

JLizard, you have actually not stated anything contextually differently than what I have stated. You may have expressed it in slightly different words, but the context is exactly the same.

There's no one who buys silver to permanently hold it as a few stackers are insinuating. In the end, whether the stacker who literally buys the blobs or the children of that stacker whom the blobs are passed down to, it's the cashing in of the silver for goods or services (repayments of loans...whatever) that gives any meaning at all to "store of wealth". That eventual cashing in amounts to intending to sell the silver. Different time frame than other stackers perhaps and different goods or services bought perhaps, but ultimately a store of value is used to get what is perceived to be necessary or important at a timed deemed to be the right time by the one cashing in. For you, it is to pay off a loan....it actually doesn't matter what it's used for...a store of wealth in metal blobs means nothing if it doesn't eventually provide a means to get goods or services (or pay loans loans or such). When you pay off a home loan, for example, you don't go to the bank with your pick-up truck full of blobs. You sell the blobs and then repay the loan. That's selling silver, not storing it forever. It isn't different than someone selling silver at a bull cycle high to pay for something that stacker deems to be important or necessary. All stackers buy silver with the ends being that silver will eventually be sold/cashed in by the stacker her/himself or the one whom the silver is handed down to (regardless of how long or how many generations those blobs are held).

Also, a blob may not be an investment vehicle, but it's perfectly fine to state as I do that we invest our money into silver every time we make a silver purchase.

I really do not get why some stackers get so bent out of shape when they are confronted with a truth they appear to never have critically considered before. I'm not saying that describes you, JLizard, but it certainly describes a number of stackers I have come across over the 2 years that I have been engaging in discussions with stackers in different venues. That attitude by those stackers doesn't bode well at all for them.




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