asx rrl Regis Resources LTD

4 comeback stocks for fiscal 2015 Nicholas Grove | 07 Jul 2014

from:
http://www.morningstar.com.au/

Regis Resources

"While carrying a very high fair value uncertainty and not possessing a moat like the aforementioned company (Wotif.com Holdings - WTF), Regis Resources is described by Morningstar senior resources analyst Mark Taylor as a "financially prudent gold mining company".
Taylor says the company is focused on paying dividends to shareholders -- a rare attribute in an Australian mining company.
He expects the miner to pay full franked dividends starting in fiscal 2015.
Also, Taylor says that significant on-market share purchases by the company's management align their interests with those of other shareholders.
Taylor describes a continuing 18-month fall in Regis's shares which included an "acute jolt" that followed a recent production downgrade -- as being overdone."

Other 3 stocks are: WTF, MMS, MRM
 
Big positive volume still entering RRL. Another big monthly black volume bar for July, and August looking ok so far. I noticed too how the June low has rebounded off the 1.50 multi-year resistance level of 2005-07. Regis was the cream o' the crop once, just reclaiming the old high would be a 3 bagger. Still not 'technically' out of its monthly downtrend, but has RRL seen the worst? Can't decide.

Disclosure: no position
Sentiment: none

1893_rrl_mthly_aug.gif
 
"Can't decide."?

Disclosure: position
Sentiment: looking at the charts What a dog!

havent added recently still on my daily watchlist

All the action has been with NST!
 
Go Hard or Go Home :)
I bought NST at $1 its hard to buy more when your up so many %age points.
Chart wise Regis looks bullish - if it breaks 3.69 today that would be good, ive some of them for ages I keep forgetting to check where they are at
SBM seems cheap but I don't know where their debt is at the moment.

everybody seems addicted to high risk explorers - there is nothing wrong with the mid sized producers at all.
 
So RRL is currently the only gold stock I'm currently watching for a buy as a diversification from NST.
Over 5 years RRL is easily the best quality of the alternatives to NST, using the simple backwards looking metrics that I do. I am only investigating those with Australian mines.

Comparison fy12 - fy16
from comsec

RRL
Book Value ($): 0.53, 1.09, 0.64, 0.82, 0.96
Return on Equity (%): 28.70, 27.00, -46.20, 21.20, 23.20

NST
Book Value ($): 0.23, 0.26, 0.42, 0.55, 0.75
Return on Equity (%): 23.20, 25.20, 15.80, 33.70, 36.90

RRL had a very bad fy14 year due to a flooding disaster during a low gold price period. In the subsequent two years it has recovered most of its book value and is turning a high ROE on that value.
RRL has no long term debt to speak of, and has a very nice cash position albeit a third of NST's

Forward looking, RRL is finding reserves close to its mines at low cost, and looks to have strong future prospects along this line. Similar to NST in this regard. RRL'S fy16 report showed it has substantially increased its reserves after depletion. Again, similar to NST.

Price-wise, RRL looks a little more attractive. It has a similar P/E to NST, but pays a significantly better dividend yield. If you had bought RRL during the bad times at say $1.50, (it got lower) you'd be getting around 10% franked yield on that cost price now, with good reason to believe it will improve. The price to book of RRL is considerably less than that of Northern Star: P/B RRL= 3.44, P/B NST= 5.19
 
I might buy a 1st small lot on Monday if there's a dip, but I suspect first target of 3.00 is a fair chance: there's a weekly gap down there, lower Bollinger is there, target for a very loosely interpreted head & shoulders around there.
It's only a hope at this stage, but with the chart currently weakening, I'm seeing a small chance of lower to 2.50 - 2.25?
There's enough 'technical' doubt to go for buying in stages imo.

RRL weekly
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I think we'll see a sharp rise in PMs next week. Might consider getting small parcel of RRL next couple of days.
 
@rocket - well don't be too impulsive. You were hand wringing about NST when it went below your entry price. This could well happen here too.
 
finicky said:
@rocket - well don't be too impulsive. You were hand wringing about NST when it went below your entry price. This could well happen here too.
Click to expand...


Could do :|

PMs coincidentally/mysteriously got slammed down during the trading week China had off. Lets see what happens tomorrow. I think next week PM may bounce back.
 
A few broker ratings. Most would still rate RRL as overpriced, although some not by a big margin.
On market, RRL today is $3.27 bid
.......................................................
.
Recent price declines have seen RRL come within Macquarie's late August valuation.
http://www.sharecafe.com.au/broker_news.asp?a=AV&ai=40938

RRL - Macquarie rates the stock as Neutral
BY BROKER NEWS - 30/08/2016

Regis' result was in line with the broker, reflecting a strong operating performance. The full-year dividend represents a 60% payout of profit as expected. With no debt and little to spend, the broker suggests this payout will be maintained.

FY17 production guidance was reiterated. Regis has bounced back solidly from Garden Well issues, the broker suggests, and the dividend is supportive, but it's all in the price. Neutral retained. Target falls to $3.50 from $3.60

....................................................

This commentary from April 2016, before confirmation of fy16 results, has brokers at a 'consensus' valuation of $2.34. As low as 2.00, as high as 2.84

SHARECAFE COMMENTARY
Regis Resources Outlook Hinges Fresh Production
BY EVA BROCKLEHURST - 18/04/2016
http://www.sharecafe.com.au/fnarena_news.asp?a=AV&ai=39192

......................................................

From the Comsec site -
Morningstar as recently as 20/09/2016 has RRL valued at only $2.64

......................................................
 
So took a first bite at RRL @ 3.34
Still suspect this isn't the lowest, but can't know.
 
Another bite of RRL @ 3.32
Events favouring Clinton win are creating some weakness in gold stocks
 
^^^

Actually no, but you've got me a little worried. Nothing more serious than a weaker Q1 I'm hoping?
Q1 operating cashflow $59.6m (Q4: $68.2m)

I've given my simple reasons for buying RRL: over the last 5 years it has held up as a business, producing profits and dividends. Similar to NST. Forward looking I have only used the company's own accounts of how it is increasing ore reserves net of depletion. Doing so organically from in mine and near mine. Also important to me was cash and bullion position and debt free.

RRL compared to gold index XGD 1 month
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RRL now at 2.83.. Think its worth putting a few bob in here.. either RRL or St Barbara (down almost 10% too) before the end of the day
 
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