Zimbabwe

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by mmm....shiney!, Sep 1, 2020.

  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    20,475
    Likes Received:
    3,555
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    昆士蘭
    Anyone with feet on the ground or good contacts that are able to give opinions on the place regarding sovereign risk for companies operating there?
     
  2. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    20,475
    Likes Received:
    3,555
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    昆士蘭
    Reports are that the new government are little better than the old, with one article stating that "The Crocodile" is worse than Mugabe. That would take some doing.
     
  3. Karoi

    Karoi Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2015
    Messages:
    118
    Likes Received:
    231
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Location:
    Perth
    Both local and foreign owned companies are still closing down frequently there, so that should give you an idea of the risk.
    The deteriorating situation in South Africa will only exacerbate Zimbabwe's problems.

    There isn't much difference between the old and new. It seems like Mnangagwa doesn't have much authority as "president", just like Mugabe didn't have much authority in the 2nd half (or thereabouts) of his rule.
     
    mmm....shiney! likes this.
  4. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    20,475
    Likes Received:
    3,555
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    昆士蘭
    Thanks mate, I'm interested in buying some shares in a company over there, it ticks a few boxes for me................it's just the sovereign risk. Maybe I'll only tip a teensy-weensy into it.
     
    Silver260 likes this.
  5. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    2,682
    Likes Received:
    1,503
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Singapore
    ADR? If it's gold or platinum miner, it will be at risk of nationalisation. I'm hesitant on south africa miner, let alone Zimbabwee.
     
    mmm....shiney! likes this.
  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    20,475
    Likes Received:
    3,555
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    昆士蘭
    Not ADR. Gas/oil.
     
  7. Karoi

    Karoi Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2015
    Messages:
    118
    Likes Received:
    231
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Location:
    Perth
    If the company already has the local govt. and China invested in it (or somehow benefiting from it ;)), then there should be less risk in theory.
    The future is very uncertain for that whole region, so your idea of only putting a tiny bit into it is probably wise!
     
    mmm....shiney! likes this.
  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    20,475
    Likes Received:
    3,555
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    昆士蘭
    Not yet, they're still negotiating a deal, but other hurdles faced by the company so far have been cleared and have met with wide support from the various community and government stakeholders.

    Also, a local institutional investor managing pension funds etc has come on board, as well as the Chairman of the company that manages the above fund has been appointed as a director to the board. He also is a presidential-appointed member of a council that provides economic and strategic advice to the President.

    Unrelated:

    https://newzwire.live/zimbabwe-has-...th-white-farmers-heres-what-you-need-to-know/
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2020
    Karoi likes this.
  9. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    20,475
    Likes Received:
    3,555
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    昆士蘭
    I'm of the opinion that nationalisation is overplayed as an element of sovereign risk in the main. For example South Africa has been debating nationalisation of key industries for the past 50 years, I'm not sure they've actually done it. Worldwide most cases of nationalisation have been countries taking over responsibility for underperforming/at risk assets, or buying out shareholders, with of course places like Venezuela being the outlier.

    Conflict is the greatest threat I believe, famine and corruption can lead locals to take to the streets with guns - which doesn't end well for foreign held assets.
     
    sgbuyer likes this.
  10. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2018
    Messages:
    4,023
    Likes Received:
    4,863
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Oz
  11. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    20,475
    Likes Received:
    3,555
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    昆士蘭
    @Oddjob, not those sources mate, but they paint a similar picture to the ones I've read.

    That Garda is an interesting link, a private security/logistics company similar to Academi?
     
  12. Roswell Crash Survivor

    Roswell Crash Survivor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2011
    Messages:
    2,559
    Likes Received:
    340
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    Zeta Reticuli
    Dun & Bradstreet, better known for their Credit Reporting services, also has a Country Risk Bureau. (http://www.dnbcountryrisk.com/)
     
  13. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2018
    Messages:
    4,023
    Likes Received:
    4,863
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Oz
    This is true but usually you need an a/c for the likes of D&B and that ain't cheap from memory...but subject to what is being contemplated by mmm....shiney, maybe it's worth the $.
     

Share This Page