Keep up the good work joseph/hobo jo! PS after my uncle and my grandfather rang me in the last few days mentioning silver, which along with those pics of the line of people at ABC , I now at last agree with you that phase 3 is upon us! and the next 2-3 years should be well interesting to say the least!
may be a bit premature, have to see what happens in US today but the USD INDEX has already wiped off the very small gain we saw through the day on the Osama news.
Can anybody please supply me with a reference to where these various "phases" are defined?? Hearing the whole time about how we're in "phase3" is working on my tits because my intuition tells me its bullshit (because i know phase 3 is the final phase of the bull run). Would just like to see the who and the how about the definitions of these phases...
It's difficult to be precise on the timing/specific activity that can define the stages of a bull market, but the theory goes and refer to hobo jo's / bullion barons blog for the timeline chart, but I guess the early stages of phase 3 the final phase is sharp and strong price movements to the upside, pieces in mainstream media (as we have seen with silver lately) including AFR and the sunday age in the last week. I recently had relatives who have very little investment knowledge call me as they read articles about silver and the excitement surrounding it. herds of people buying physical as i guess we have seen lately refer to photos of lines at dealers and physical shortages at bullion dealers which yes we have seen before but this time at near record prices. I'll try and copy and paste the timeline chart If i can find it. Some may find it a rather loose theory and this bull market may shock everyone to the upside or disappoint who knows?
Yippe, You'll be pleased to see that your "permanent high plateau" gets a mention. It's called the imaginary phase. Don't read too much into these phases, you might find out that you are one of the sheeple! C
Picked up a 1/2 kilo bar this morning. Had no idea the price had dropped until checking spot just before purchase, happy days.
The silver price shenanigans don't worry me. I WOULD be worried if I'd borrowed $400,000 to buy my first house in the last 12 months.
there should be a second sell off at "media attention". anytime the media promotes something it's due for a pullback. also - while ben is still printing, while the world is awash in debt, and until silver goes over $250/oz all this bubble talk is bullshit IMO: enthusiasm will be $50-100 greed $101-250 delusion $251-499 new paradigm $500-1000(+) ?
While I know I'll make some errors of judgement in my silver buying during these phases described above, I think in the end I'll come out on top because I'm not buying tickets for the get-rich-quick-on-silver ride. I'm buying silver because it makes sense to me in the long term ie. for the rest of my life and my childrens' lives and their childrens' lives ad infinitum. I wouldn't be surprised if I see these phases cycle through more than once in my remaining years. I kind of hope so, because maybe I'll recognise the signs and play the game better next time 'round.
Im thinking silver will get as low as $36 before the next up move, i think we're ripe for correction. I bought today at 39.9, have some cash reserves to buy as it goes down, Im not missing this next up move like I did the last one.
Yeah - I agree but i think the time frame will be 5-10 years for the full cycle - depending on geo-politics
Currently up $1 to $46.60 with massive volume - much more than the volume that drove it down $5 earlier today. Almost always it's the other way around - small volume drives price upwards and then huge volume on the downside. Not sure why - other than people saying it's manipulation...
