Which company to look into for Lithium?

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by bloomst, May 12, 2016.

  1. bloomst

    bloomst Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    So with Lithium is gaining momentum, what company should we look into? I'm looking for both short-medium term and long term.

    So far from reading in here I have noted PIO and PLS. Anything else I should
    Be aware of?

    Cheers
    :)
     
  2. scrooged

    scrooged New Member

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  3. kramer

    kramer Member

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    PSC. it's just started taking off today. it looks to be the next BGS. up 200% today and still 1/3 of BGS market cap with a comparable resource target at higher grades. Now it's getting noticed. I took a punt on it a month ago when there was a HUGE spike in volume. That was the clue for me that something big was going on. should have bought more but 660,000 shares @0.007 will do me for now.
    PIO is also rewarding me well 3+ bagging. lithium is going nuts. GXY doubled and i sold out before they retraced and ADV i sold 80% after they jumped to be free caried. i'm concerned ADV's resource is not large enough.
    BGS has tripled since i got in it but i haven't sold any yet.
     
  4. Highonsilver

    Highonsilver Member Silver Stacker

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    PIO... Lots of talk about it on hotcopper. Go back a week or so, follow the links some have posted up, lots of info to digest.
    Not a recommendation, just a suggestion! Things got crazy today, all based of speculation, but I believe the next month will bring a few announcements.
    Disclaimer... I don't have much of an idea about much!
     
  5. Naphthalene Man

    Naphthalene Man Active Member Silver Stacker

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    i still have ORE.
    If anyone can tell me otherwise why Brine hardrock is better than Brine i'd be interested in the points raised.
     
  6. southerncross

    southerncross Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Make sure the company has a decent grade and sized deposit,Lithium ain't all lithium, you want Spodumene not mica and you want confirmed Lithium, not we might have some, maybe, could...... Brine might be the future in five or ten years but I will be giving it a miss for now.
    Look for ones that also have a diverse portfolio such as Gold, Silver and or other minerals that can be cyclical such as nickle or copper etc, Unless the company has a large confirmed deposit of decent lithium of course such as PLS and friends.
    Research, Research, Research, there is a wealth of info available on forums such as this and also in company announcements. A lot of tenements change hands and there is often historical results from over ten years ago that if you come across can make all the difference in appraising what the new owners of that piece of land might have, Lithium or what was only a 1-3 grams per ton of gold 15 years ago is now economical to mine unlike back then.
    Management, Like any game there are good players and bad, some have a history of over promising and under delivering. Check their reputation.

    There seems to be a new lithium player popping up every second day now, most will probably lose people money and only a few will make people a lot of money. PLS, BGS, PIO, AJM, I feel have a great future, some I am watching but don't own CXO, AWV, DKO, OKU, MCT and also now PSC.

    Do your homework, don't play with more than you are willing to lose.... because you can. But also keep in mind that the risk also has it's rewards
    A couple of ounces of gold put into PIO a couple of weeks ago could of become over $15,400 if sold at the right time today, or over $10,000 if you still held. That same couple of ounce's would have to rise in value to over $7500 each to get you the same return.
     
  7. southerncross

    southerncross Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hardrock V Brine ? Biggest difference is time to mine. With lithium the demand growth will be biggest in the next five to ten years. Brine deposits take around five years to get to production,
    even to scale up existing brine deposits would take three years until any production if everything went well. You need to construct ponds, fill them , refine, and hope it doesn't rain in the meantime.

    Brine production relies upon evaporation to get product. If it rains too much it all go's foobar.

    There is also the purity of product, Iron content and other impurity's can complicate the refinement process and so far as I know none of the Brine products are chemical grade and is a major reason why the battery producers in china prefer Spodumene concentrate.

    Brine might well be more economical once all set up but the ease of production for a hard rock mine beats it hands down, Find it, Blast it, crush it, gravity concentrate and sell it.
    Compared to find it, ensure water supply, construct ponds, pump it, wait 18 months for it to evaporate if it does not rain,
    refine it from the salt and sulfur and whatever else and then sell an inferior product.

    No doubt as the tech gets better all this will change but for now Hardrock is the easiest and higher grade product.
     
  8. VRS

    VRS Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  9. ego2spare

    ego2spare Active Member

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    Duracell
     
  10. LovingtheSilver

    LovingtheSilver Active Member Silver Stacker

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    DKO holders weren't too happy with drilling results. Opened at 20c then down to a low of 11c then back up to 18c. Hopefully for holders it picks back up more or stabilises.
    @ southerncross, I think MCT is worth a punt, have the zinc deposit plus upcoming drilling program that may sent the price up as ppl buy before drilling. SCI had a good run recently but they have a mix of various types, not just Spodumene so a bit of a risk there. Might turn out okay plus they have ag/Pb/zn potential also.
     
  11. southerncross

    southerncross Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Talk me out of ADV Kramer, took a good look today and I like what I see there so far, those two deposits 2km apart tell a story and the grades are phenomenal and spodumene, no sov risk and a heap of tenement area to find more in, plenty of the good type of graphite and dedicated management as well.
    PIO held well today, I was expecting a much bigger pullback but it seems to have a floor at 6 ish and on good news will get back to the 10's or more in no time.
    Poor old DKO got hammered, glad I got out with a nice profit when I did last week, still think it will come back but not to the level's of it's neighbours unless they find a heap more.
    Still on the fence with MCT, they need something solid with the lithium to get them running.
     
  12. Caput Lupinum

    Caput Lupinum Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Lithium is a bubble waiting to pop. The amount of other base metal and gold explorers adding lithium to their tool kit is growing by the day. There's no immediate increase in demand to warrant such a frenzy and the big suppliers such as Chengdu and Albemarle could easily ramp up supply if needed
     
  13. southerncross

    southerncross Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You need to go and do some more research, lithium ain't lithium. How long do you think it would take Albemarle to increase output ? And where do you think Chengdu get their Lithium from http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...k=a446463058f101fdb687fd4f240f3635-1463138517 ?
    Abermarle is increasing output over 4 years to 70,000 ton's IF it doesn't rain.... Tesla alone will need over 24,000 ton's per year just at the moment for it's vehicles, then there is BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagon, Nissan, General Motors, Toyota, Geely, Ford, BYD, Mitsubishi, Renault plus the Chinese generic brands, Plus Google and Apple getting on board, plus the countless ebike all over China and India.
    And that is just the Cars, There are truck's on the way with Nikola http://www.techtimes.com/articles/1...ses-800-to-1-200-miles-in-a-single-charge.htm, Boats, Trains, And also planes on the drawing board. These are not concepts they are happening right now.
    And then there is Power storage which will probably eclipse all the above in the next decade. Add in mobile devices, power tools, Mining vehicles, to the list along with the traditional uses such as glass and ceramics and where do you think all this lithium will come from ?
    Demand will outstrip supply over the next five years at least, why do you think the Chinese are paying top dollar and stitching up supply contracts right now ?
    The Brine suppliers can't just turn on another tap, it takes years, 90% of the new lithium announcements are crap Mica deposits or too small to be economical. The only real option for the next five years is hard rock deposits.
    Here have a read of the future http://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP201605090014764304_1.PDF
     
  14. Caput Lupinum

    Caput Lupinum Active Member Silver Stacker

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    What are the broader macroeconomic conditions telling you about consumer demand, wage growth and disposable income over the next 5 years?
     
  15. Killface

    Killface Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    What is the likelihood of another technology disrupting the rise of lithium?
     
  16. southerncross

    southerncross Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    That even in a recession people need electricity, cars, and technology irrespective of disposable income.

    If you had the choice between two cars that cost 35000 dollars brand new, but one cost you a tenth to operate which one would you choose ? If one did not need to be serviced at least once a year which one would you choose ? If one was so reliable the manufacturer put an unlimited kilometer warranty on it which one would you choose ?

    If a power company can do away with the need for a gas fired production facility to balance the grid load , do you think they will ? If someone with solar panels on their roof can negate the need for high tariff electricity do you think they will ? Business or private.

    A recession would just hurry things along a little quicker, as Lithium would actually save business' and individuals money.
    A far cry from a bubble. I encourage people to watch this video, it will open your eyes as to what is coming mainstream soon.

    [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM[/youtube]
     
  17. southerncross

    southerncross Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Maybe in another decade, if they can find something as cheap and as light as Lithium, but for now all current tech is locked in.
     
  18. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    very interesting.
     
  19. Highonsilver

    Highonsilver Member Silver Stacker

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    Stop it..!!! Your getting me excited :D
    Go Pio
     
  20. kramer

    kramer Member

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    southerncross my thoughts.

    ADV- have spod but the resource size is the questionable thing. i still have a smallish position in them. it may run. good grades of spod but not as thick as i would like on the drilling so far. still early days. i may buy back in to increase exposure.
    DKO - too small - i have no interest there. they may be able to expand the resource base but the tenement is limited in size and the small resource is low grade. DKO might JV with PLS for mining.
    PIO - have a considerable investment there, expect at least a doubling from here near term and they are diversified which i quite like. got on at 2.2, expect easily over 10c near term.
    BGS - large resource. largest current lithium stock position is in this one. late to the party got in at 11c, averaged up to 13.5c. happy to hold here. should have started researching a year ago.
    VMC - nearology to dko / pls. i have a fair chunk here on the chance they rerate but i will look to exit that after disappointing results with DKO. i expect it can still jump with it's tiny market cap and lots of tenements to play with but for now it's going nowhere and there's a bot messing around everytime i try to sell. will have a crack on the open on monday. naturally they will announce big news when i sell out.
    GXY - sold off fully there after a run from 30 - 48c. they will likely do alright but the hardrock resource is a while away.
    EMH - have a minimal position here. great resource which i believe they can double in size but the low grade is the problem.

    few options you might consider for diversification:
    BAR - cobalt resource and a sexy high quality one at that. if your looking to diversify there it's a solid play..
    CDV - expecting increase in size of their gold resource, i'm overweight on this one also. 3 drills on site, news should come thick and fast of a massive pit size resource. i might sell heads and buy options. dont expire until 2019 and are in the money.
    FND - lowest AISC copper miner, mining in indonesia for years and upscaling their plant which should come online june to august. not exciting but making money in a bear market and with a huge hedge book worth millions at current copper prices.


    next week for my punts:
    PSC - resource the size of BGS, spodumene and also amblygonite (8-10% grade) which is higher grade than spodumene (4-8% grade) and sells for a premium for glass / ceramics industry. Zimbabwe is not as bad as people say and is the 5th highest exporter of lithium currently. Should easily double / triple the share price near term IMO and they have 5 gold mines which are being refurbished for low cost production. historical mines being brought online again with new techniques.
    exploration target is (15-18 million tons at 3 - 5% Li2O.) management is solid and cashed up. they also have a option announced recently for a 12km long gold tenement which they may exercise. i'm holding 660,000 shares there. will look to increase up to 2m worth if i can get on it now before a run back up in price. expecting 2 bags from here very near term to catch up to bgs market cap. this will of course increase as bgs creeps up on drilling announcements and PSC drilling.

    AZS - best silver play on the asx i believe. They are drilling at the moment and are also hitting gold. i'm holding but looking to increase below $0.42. jumps in the price of silver will see it run as well as increasing the resource which i believe they will do.

    cxx - ran out of money to play on this one, can't buy everything! It's trending upwards. CXX have a jorc'd niobium resource which is required in steel making. there are very few niobium producers worldwide and their plan to production are solid. they would be a takeover target for deep pockets for sure.

    overall i will look to lower exposure to shares with economic headwinds being what they are. Spodumene resources will be the only ones viable in a downturn scenario so not too fussed expecially the ones diversified with gold.
    gold stocks were sold down in the GFC but they bounced back just as fast and the price of gold didn't drop so it was just following the herd panicking not based on the fundamental commodity value.

    all just my 2c
     

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