Where to next?

Discussion in 'Wealth Creation & Management' started by mmm....shiney!, Nov 23, 2017.

  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Interested in member’s thoughts on where the next boom will be. I can’t see one on the horizon - mainly because of capital restrictions imposed on Chinese/Indian citizens by their own governments, and upon foreign nationals by governments in most Western countries. In other words, we’ve seen just about every restriction imposed as possible - all designed to boost national currencies/mainstream markets.

    Without knowing the ins and outs of capital restrictions on each asset class I see:

    Shares - no reason why they can’t continue to rise due to ZIRP or near-ZIRP policies of central banks, won’t be a boom though.

    Gold - not until something drastic happens or the two aforementioned nations relax restrictions, then maybe boom, for all the reasons that we value it.

    Silver - maybe on the coat tails of the yellow metal, but it’s only value is industrial or maybe speculative and so it may be useful for a quick run and then dump.

    Property - peaked, maybe will continue to rise but the boom is over.

    Cryptos - no reason why it can’t keep galloping (or trotting) along, until China/India do something. Then it may be gold’s turn. Cryptos are here for good though.

    Moral? Long term investments with $$$ you really want to see grow but can’t afford to lose the lot = shares, gold, property and the major cryptos. Short term playing the cycles with $$$ you can afford to lose, silver, alt-coins, crowd-funding.

    Then of course there’s futures.

    Looking forward to comments and corrections.
     
  2. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Shares - Steady return on solid companies. Good hedge against inflation. But can't see a boom. Probably more chance of a crash as major economies slow down. I'd avoid Australian bank shares at all costs.

    Gold & Silver - Perhaps if there's major financial upheaval, war, stock market crash. I see this as a better bet than shares.

    Australian Real Estate - Peaked already. High possibility of short sharp correction or long and slow correction like Japan's. Commercial real estate still making good returns of 7-10%.

    Crypto Currencies - The crypto genie is out of the bottle now. It's not going away. Will probably peak in 5 years. The landscape may change a lot in that time, and a lot of people will make and lose a lot of money.
     
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  3. boneyard

    boneyard Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Meat alternatives. ?....

    sausages not made from meat, but taste the same.

    hamburgers that taste like meat, but are not made from meat.

    The new margarine compared to butter.

    comments?
     
  4. Silverling

    Silverling Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This is such a good question and it's on a lot of peoples minds.

    You won't lose the lot in shares but there is a good chance you could lose up to 60%. Gold, silver and crypto is speculative and property is anyone's guess.

    It could be our currency. There's a lot of talk about the AUD crashing, I've seen it at .47c to the USD. There is a work around for a crashing AUD, buy the ETF ticker "USD". That way if the AUD crashed against the USD then you make money. Gold and Silver could have the same effect.

    Then there is the safe bet of something called CASH. When or if it ever does go to sh*t, like a sharemarket and crypto crash, be cashed up. Nothing like buying these assets dirt cheap with cash at hand. But yeah, it's all a gamble, good luck.
     
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  5. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Except if there's a banking/currency crisis and they stop or limit daily withdrawals. Also we may have up to $250,000 deposit guarantee, but if the government takes years to pay it out, or puts limits on it, inflation will eat it up before you get it back.
     
  6. Silverling

    Silverling Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Absolutely right but geeees we would have to totally stuffed up if it ever got to that. Everybody will be losers then, total chaos, but yeah point well noted!
     
  7. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Pyramid Building Society. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyramid_Building_Society#Collapse

    51 cents per dollar paid ~15 years later. Inflation would have made it worthless by then.

    Banking problems have happened in a lot of other countries that seemed to be going well. It's foolish to think "it can't happen here". Better off taking the view that it could happen here.
     
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  8. Silver Soul

    Silver Soul Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Green energy sector. White gold Lithium, Graphite/Graphene,& Cobalt. New battery technologies= >>>>>> BOOM times
     
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  9. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I just saw the weekend auction clearance rate for NSW is down to 55%. Probably have a sharp price decline if it goes much lower.
     
  10. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Definitely the growth sector in food over the next decade or so. Not sure I'd call it a potential boom though, more a business opportunity that some early adopters are already turning into income, still room for more market players, but I expect to see costs driven down, margins narrowed and savings passed on to consumers as ingredients become cheaper and competition ramps up.

    So we'll have to look for shares/crowd funding in narrow spheres of activity for any possible huge returns.

    :)
     
  11. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Food is a tough gig, you have a small window of of opportunity before the big players move in.

    One minute there's this:

    Screen Shot 2017-11-25 at 6.43.59 am.png

    Next minute you're on the bottom shelf to be replaced by:

    Screen Shot 2017-11-25 at 6.44.07 am.png

    Compare the fortunes of these two, Goodman Fielder v Wesfarmers:

    Screen Shot 2017-11-25 at 6.49.42 am.png Screen Shot 2017-11-25 at 6.50.34 am.png

    It's true that Wesfarmers is diversified, but Goodman Fielder like so many other food producers relies upon other businesses to reach a market.
     
  12. JNS

    JNS Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Strike the metal while it's hot, so if crypto is hot now, why not to deal with it. It is much easier to invest in something that you can control with an exit strategy anytime. Investment must be categorize in short, medium and long term, which one is hot then, concentrate and focus on it. Need to exit, get out gracefully at your gain as much as possible.
     
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  13. Court Jester

    Court Jester Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    <---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------SIDEWAYS------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->

    Still correct for the last 3 + years
     
  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    1 1/2 years not 3.
     
  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Did you exit gracefully JNS?
     
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  16. Court Jester

    Court Jester Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ive been saying it and am more or less correct over the last 3 years
     
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  17. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Not been 3 years though

    Edit to add: but it does depend upon what time frame and chart you look at I guess
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2018
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  18. stackmans

    stackmans Member

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    Anyone got any thoughts on this?
    Australian medicinal marijuana companies may be the next boom. Legal marijuana in Canada and the US has become a billion dollar industry in just a few short years.
    Even with our ultra conservative governments I can't see Australia not following the trend in Canada, USA and parts of Europe. It could be a good time to get in.
     
  19. Court Jester

    Court Jester Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    the current system in here is very differnt to the USA

    we wont see a boom like they did there unless there are some big law changes.
     
  20. JNS

    JNS Active Member Silver Stacker

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    yes I did already, been too busy around with other stuff. I am back online.
     
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