When Silver over $100...

Discussion in 'Silver' started by Golden ChipMunk, Aug 22, 2020.

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  1. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Same answer: fools. In 1980 and 2011 they ran out of them at $50. That was after a decade of very high general price rises. We have had now a decade prices stagnation. Silvers price doubling had as cause a scam named "corona", scam because it wasn't the virus that kept people from helping eachother in the economy, it were the Totalitarians that blocked it by their means of violence.
    You think you still didn't ran out of fools now?
     
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  2. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    You have that the opposite, they don't suppress PM prices, they increase them when you wanna buy, and decrease them when you wanna sell.
    See central bank gold purchases. They sell stock at decades recordlows, and buy stock at decades recordhighs. They inflict less dollars, then less ounces.
    That's not really "suppressing" prices eh? They just do the opposite of what speculators try, why: the existence reason of a central bank is precisely that: fighting speculators.
     
  3. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It's the silver pumpers that talk about inflation all day long, selling ads for youtube eyeballs, and newsletters. Nowadays I don't even bother to listen because they keep repeating the same thing.
     
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  4. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    the premiums differences is due to deliveries issues, as planes are not flying
    so it create price differences, but with waiting time
    hence it is worth the risk to store metals at different locations, then later ship them
     
  5. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm not sure if we are still 1980 or 2011, more likely we're only at 2009/2010.

    But I share same thoughts on the recent spike due to bad response to the pandemic, this is why I haven't bought any silver since March, although I'm not selling either. Instead, I've been doing some selective buys in the energy front where valuation is still low, although risky, it's part of my diversification. Don't want to put too much into precious metals.

    I read somewhere that the Corona virus is a convenient excuse for central bankers to cover up their mistakes by printing lots of money. The poor response by democratic cities in the US in managing the virus also has contributed to the sharp spike in silver.

    Once the US election is over, silver may pull back, provided there's no 2nd wave or new war happening somewhere. Gold in fact, is ripe for a pullback so silver maybe dragged along. Your exit is well timed, but will you be buying back again when prices are lower?
     
  6. Nickoru

    Nickoru Member

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    Could you please link me to "central bank" gold purchases you mentioned? Do these banks trade @CME? Sadly, I couldn't find such data that corresponds to speculators' joint impulses to sell or buy. Also, any example when they [which central banks exactly?] decreased prices when [someone, who?] wanted to sell?
     
  7. Nickoru

    Nickoru Member

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    There's no question of 'pullback'. USD became unlimited virtual currency, trillions are wired from keyboards. It's a question of deliberate control. Gold jumped from 30 in 1930 to 2000 now. It can only go upwards but... If FRS grants a few billions as usual, banks can short it by a few hundred down. That's what happened on 11 aug. People should understand that keeping gold and silver down is an issue of US national security. Should gold and silver be allowed to become money then USD will cease to and it will be the end of debt ridden fake system which prevails now. It's like losing a war, empire will not allow it to happen. With unlimited USD resources they have, they can drive gold down to 1000 @CME with the snap of a finger.
     
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2020
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  8. Tokyo

    Tokyo Active Member

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    sound like you never traded before.
     
  9. Silver Soul

    Silver Soul Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    :rolleyes: here comes the clowns
     
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  10. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    The WorldGoldCouncil organisation publishes data on a term basis.
    SilverInstitute does this yearly for silver.
    I downloaded these since a decade, and updated into a textfile.
    Here a copypaste of gold:

    Central bank & other institutions
    - positive figure means total net = selling
    - negative figure means total net = buying
    year / tonnes / average gold price that year / estimated cost per tonne based on average gold price

    1997 326 $330.98
    1998 363 $294.24
    1999 477 $278.88
    2000 479 $279.11
    2001 520 $271.04
    2002 547 $309.73
    2003 620 $363.38
    2004 479 $409.72
    2005 663 $444.74
    2006 365 $603.46
    2007 484 $695.39
    2008 235 $871.96
    2009 34 $972.35
    2010 -77 > -79.2(2016Q4) $1224.53
    2011 -455 > -480.8(2016Q4) $1571.52
    2012 -544.1 > -569.3(2016Q4) $1668.98
    2013 -386.6(2014Q1) > -409.3(2014Q2) > -625.5 (2015Q1) > -623.8(2016Q4) $1411.23
    2014 -477.2(2014Q4) > -588.0(2015Q1) > -590.5 (2015Q2) > -583.9 (2015Q4) $1211.71
    2015 -588.4 (2015Q4) > -566.3 (2016Q1) > -576.5(2016Q4) $1160.06
    2016 -383.6 > -389.8 $1250.74
    2017 -371.4 > -374.8 (2019Q1) $1257.12
    2018 -651.5

    2010-2018 is my monitoring period, the rest I gathered together from old WGC reports linked here and there on the web.
    You see that 2010-2017 have several figures, the last one is the last update = the "currently" correct one for that year.
    That "2016Q4" refers to the WorldGoldCouncil report, in this case year 2016, quarter 4 report (= end of year).
    You can see that some years are seriously updated in subsequent years, even 5 years later.
    2013 is also a good example, in 2014Q1 they reported 386.6 tonnes bought, and the last 2016Q4 update increased it to 623.8 tonnes bought.
    Just to illustrate, those that read WGC reports, and base conclusions on it, these can end up quite wrong.
     
  11. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Well, those "trillions" Quantitative Easing are probably the biggest monetary scam in history, they DID make them, but they made sure that these just stayed in the inflation-sterile environment of member bank accounts at the central bank Federal Reserve. Alot (especially bullion selling sites and other vested interests, and the Fed probably too since its enemy is "the speculator" and driving these in wrong decisions serve that goal, suggested serious general price increases due to it, but they just weren't lend out / spent.
    The real reason for the trillions was a switch to another monetary control / inflation control method. This has happened several times in history of the Fed.
    Outside a crisis, they control the money supply growth along interest rates, and have to accept the influence on the money supply (it's mathematically impossible to set both simultaneous).
    Inside a crisis, they control the money supply and have to accept the influence on the interest rates.
    Why the difference: interest rates are linked to a variety of automatical adjustments (indexes, wages, ...) so if a central bank pushes a higher interest, more money seeps away to bank deposits that then grow even further.
    But the money supply itself isn't linked as such. So the central bank can specifically sponsor selected entities. That is done along a special interest rate, dedicated for it: the interest on excess reserves. That interest is a small % of the QE trillions, and the real inflation driver, much smaller than the one suggested with the balance total.
    And indeed, that serious inflation didn't come.
    Only some specific prices surged due to misled speculators anticipating on serious inflation.
    I was among these in 2011. I learnt, since.
     
  12. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    There is now a hard reality out there: the governments inflicted some serious damage to the economical web.
    Alot production that should have taken place, didn't.
    The central planning is since years trying to drive up inflation back to their target 2% annually.
    So far this failed, they still sit in the annoyant near zero interest rates, with negative problematic since depositors then could withdrawn money as cash in order to escape paying the negative intrest.
    So when seeing the new virus, they decided to try again, in the process moving towards a near totalitarian world.
    So, central planning will do all they can to purposely create a next big crisis. In some older times, they would just bring war and carpetbomb production in order to make prices rises due to more money facing less products.
    But that doesn't make them looking good so they now use a virus epidemy to force production stalls until their target inflation is achieved.

    I didn't decide yet what to do.
    I still have some silver, if price would again rise, I'll sell the 1kg+ coins despite liking them personally. But I learnt that such attitude towards money is a losses inflictor.
    I could buy back in lower, but the risk then is that the price doesn't rise again, for many years, so not compensating for eventual general prices increasings.
    This is what happened during the decades 1980-2000. Prices of houses rose alot, gold and silver just hung, and even dropped. Why: because central banks sell to drive down price when speculators sell, and vice versa.
    But bank money will also lag general prices increasings, that's what central planning does day and year: pushing deposit intrest below price increasings rate.
    I have to make a big spending (house) within 5 or so years time frame. It may be wiser to hold the bank money till then, and in case bank risk, withdrawing a part to store in a bank safe or so. But as said, it's all to decide.
     
  13. rainy day

    rainy day Member

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    it is the peoples money.
     
  14. Nickoru

    Nickoru Member

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    Sorry, but you are in the wrongs here, quoting all this data as it's not connected with speculators. Speculators DON'T deal with physical, they never take delivery or deliver. Also, nowhere it's mentioned these transactions went through CME, meaning they played little or nil role in establishing market prices.
     
  15. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I've come to realise that gold spot price has nothing to do with physical price or demand. At the moment, very few people are buying gold jewellery because it's too expensive. It's a big contrast with late last year around this time, gold shops were full of customers. In comparison, pawnshop business is doing very well.

    Gold at $1500 (a year ago), many people are buying. But gold at $1900 is not attractive. Could mean $1500 is a very strong support.

    https://www.businesstoday.in/market...7-billion-during-april-july/story/413131.html

    https://in.reuters.com/article/asia...andemic-hammers-physical-demand-idINKCN24W1U4
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2020
  16. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ don't think all people who stack will be using futures to hedge, but never know
    due to huge amount, a big pile
    Dealers usually have their own hedge
    gold is very shinny when price is high, like $2,000...$3,000 the higher it goes... the more shinny it would be $5,000
    the fear of missing out is strong within
    the fear of holding on to worthless paper is even stronger
    the bull market driven by fear is beyond those driven by greed
     
  17. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    im-drunk-and-about-to-spend-100-on-silver-change-45086857.png
     
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  18. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hang on.
    Just remembered I spent $160 on an oz the other night?.... and I was drunk. :):p
     
  19. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The corona virus has distorted the market significantly, but let's not forget, the dislocation is only in the medium term - not in terms of years, but only months. The moment, there's sign that the pandemic is going away, there will be another shock coming because asset values will re-adjust and we might find ourselves exactly in the same position as we had started in January. If viewed in this sense, Pirocco might not be wrong.

    Which means a crash in silver, FANGS, a correction in gold and a boom in energy. The focus will also return to european banks.
     
  20. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    silver:eek:il is about 1:1.7
     

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