What's the outlook for the AUD?

Discussion in 'Currencies' started by Ozi, Jul 4, 2011.

  1. Ozi

    Ozi Member

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    Hi SS's,

    The AUD has been high for quite a while and now that the US has ended QE2 I wander how that will affect the AUD?

    Regards,
    Ozi
     
    Ozi, Jul 4, 2011
    #1
  2. goldpelican

    goldpelican Administrator Staff Member

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    goldpelican, Jul 4, 2011
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  3. jnkmbx

    jnkmbx Well-Known Member

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    To DA moon! :D

    Actually, it's the USD that will drop as their economic problems compound.
    We'll keep above parity as long as we're _really_ shifting away from the US and not just saying so.
     
    jnkmbx, Jul 4, 2011
    #3
  4. boston

    boston Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Despite all the problems in Euroland and the USA I can't help but feel that the A$ is overvalued against both currencies, either through sentiment or substance.

    The real crunch will come however when China reduces iron ore and coking coal etc imports from the rest of the world, including Australia. That is when we will start competing against South America and others, which will result in competitive currency devaluations globally as countries vie for their own export markets.

    If I had to predict an exchange rate for the A$, it would be encompasing a circa >25% devaluation from present levels. That ladies and gentlemen, is where fortunes will be won and lost using AG and AU.
     
    boston, Jul 4, 2011
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  5. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    Despite me being very bullish on Silver I can't help but think that Silver is highly correlated with the AUD.

    If I am correct, Silver may track the AUD declines and wiping out majority of the gains whereas Gold may not see this problem since Gold is less of a commodity and is inversely correlated with Oil (read: USD) which is kind of independent of an AUD drop.

    Hope I'm wrong ;)
     
    fishball, Jul 4, 2011
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