What's the future of silver look like to you?

Discussion in 'Silver' started by Coins A-Z, Nov 23, 2017.

  1. Oddjob

    Oddjob Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Ag dipping under AUD20.00 oz and AUD nudging 0.73....time for a wee purchase in the dip I think.
     
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  2. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    its is not worth the wait if I just want to buy a kilo, saving -40c x 32 = $12.85
    in a potential saving
    it cost $2.50 to select which bar preferred

    PM $677.68
    Pamp $679.30
    JBR $680.94

    I have 3 weeks to decide
     
  3. SlyGuy

    SlyGuy Active Member

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    "My thoughts"? Lol... would you guarantee that? Of course not.

    Gold and silver are monetary metals which function as stores of wealth. They rise up periodically to account for inflation of the currency they are measured against. They don't have a yield (nor are they supposed to, being money). Simply look at the graphs in the long term. Silver has a bit of potential for more (or less) demand based on its quasi-commodity value, but gold is pretty firmly entrenched as money value.

    In the example you gave, assuming general inflation was also average of 3% annually, then there is about a 50/50 chance that the silver will be worth more than $1350. It depends if it spiked recently. Either way, it should be pretty close. The only problem (or opportunity, depending who you ask) is that the gold or silver price doesn't match the paper currency consistently... it stays stagnant for years or decades and then jumps up (with slight temporary overshoot) to account for inflation of currency supply.

    Instead of dollars, maybe look at it in terms of buying power. If it takes 100 ounces of gold to buy an average house and 15 ounces to buy an average car right now... the same will basically be true in the future. Right now, an ounce of silver at spot price buys roughly 5 gallons of gasoline or 5 gallons of milk or 5 loaves of bread... and that will be the same historically and in the future also. You've all heard the old adage that an ounce of gold has historically bought one nice outfit with shoes (toga + belt + sandals in Rome, tunic + satchel + hat + boots in medieval, suit + shirt + belt + shoes today). Gold is a store of value, nothing more. Silver is the same way. The only exception would be if a significant new industrial application or some other large demand for either metal came to rise.

    You also need to consider the pro/con of the kilo of silver versus the bank account. That would be convenience, premium paid to buy, theft, finding a buyer, stability and security of overall economy and banking system, etc. It's a personal choice, but neither the kilo or the 3% bank account is a growth investment you should expect to achieve increased purchasing power from. They are both also pretty low risk, so you can't expect much, or any, significant growth return.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2018
  4. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Active Member

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    In my opinion, a kg of silver will be worth more than $1350 by 2038 for the following reasons.

    1. By 2038, the economic powerhouse will be India because that where all the 20s-30s with purchasing power will be - https://www.quora.com/Do-Indians-buy-silver

    While Chinese people are crazy over properties, South Asians are crazy over gold and maybe silver. The investment world is going to look very different in 20 years.

    2. Generally speaking, good grade gold and silver ores are getting scarcer as decades pass by.

    3. All currencies, including the dollar devalue.

    On a 20 year timeframe, the bet is a no brainer. In the short term, prices can fall, maybe even to $13 as some of us have speculated.
     
  5. SlyGuy

    SlyGuy Active Member

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    I hope you are right. India is interesting because it is so populous... but it is also soooo incredibly poor on average.

    India's size and population is impressive, but their GDP per capita and life expectancy are lower than basically anywhere besides African nations and a few South American countries. Most of the talented people they do have in India will continue to leave to USA or other nations to seek education and prosperity. I am always optimistic, but it will take a whole lot of industrial and tech development to have India's economy become a major world player in production or consumption of anything. :(
     
  6. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Active Member

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    As an incredibly poor country, India is already the biggest silver importer this year. Imagine if India becomes "less poor".
     
  7. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  8. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Active Member

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  9. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I have decided to save the $12.85
    spot has fallen to 14.25 down
    PM $663.48
    Pamp $665.06
    JBR $666.67
     
  10. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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    JPM busted rigging the silver market. WAM Video. Good work guys. _JOHNLGALT.
     
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  11. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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    Silver to Gold Ratio is currently @ 85.9 to 1. What a bargain!
     
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  12. Court Jester

    Court Jester Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    and still <--------------------------------------------------------------------- SIDEWAYS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->
     
  13. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    CJ, good to see you are still around!
     
  14. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Palladium is not side way, yet people are just mesmerized by the upward trajectory
    and refused to follow the up trend
    as the saying goes, the trend is your friend
    first you ignored it then you denied it
    the sentiments is unbelievable
    then you are afraid of it being too high and you are scared by it to missed it
    that is where it caught on you just at the top, you loved it
    when it corrected 80% down, you hated it
    its just human never change
     
  15. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Active Member

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    I suppose it's sideways because it's near production costs, so the shorts are weary of going too far down. But the longs are also weary of the shorts so it can't rise either.
     

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