You do realise that they'll find a cure for milk spots and one day your milky coins will have numismatic value.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8f5mVG9P7o[/youtube] Here we go folks. Predicted this nonsense one week ago. Right on cue, The bullion messiah AKA Mike Maloney has arrived on his second coming to tell the world about the silver shortage. Of course from my sources he is one of the big players, and he'll get his allocation of ASEs from the mint in the first wave. As I said hold tight. Do not pay for overpriced premiums above spot. If you need to ditch that over-premiumed bullion in case of a emergency you will lose too much money if the spot price is relatively the same.. Hold your cash till supply increases or demand nomalises. The premium has to be a fair margin above spot. Pay special attention to artificial scarcity. If consumer panic buying sets in, do not follow the heard. PS- Only got a couple bites fishing today...Still too cold. Cheers
To me, if this happens, I will liquidate a good amount of my holdings... with a couple of exceptions... I don't want to make the mistake of not cashing in and holding when I should've sold. You can't lose money selling at a profit, you only lose if you don't sell and it normalizes. I wouldn't be selling here or forums, to the bay they go!!
Is it just me, or does this seem like an unnecessary aspect of mints delivering product to consumers ? Doesn't it make sense that somewhere in the chain someone has to hold some bullion, I'm thinking like the people who mine the silver in the first place, don't they typically hold a certain amount of bullion ? It seems like there could be some kind of contractual agreement between the mints and the mines that has some of that bullion held as blanks, right ? Am I just talking crazy ? Edit, to add to that to make it more clear ... If you're a mint you don't want to hold a huge amount of blanks because then you're essentially trading the market, but doesn't it make sense that a mint would work out some kind of a contract with whoever in their supply chain does hold bullion so that the bullion is held in a form that can be sold when the market will absorb it ? It just seems like an area where there is market potential, because these tight markets seem to happen with some regularity, don't you want to be the mint that can deliver when nobody else can because you've worked it out with a supplier ahead of time ? This seems like a failure of the "just in time" chain where nobody wants to warehouse anything.
Bad Medicine, you have just described the Perth Mint's unallocated - the clients own our working stock so we don't have any price exposure and minimal inventory holding costs. We do run large stocks and try and get ahead of demand when we have slow periods, but when there is a surge it all goes.
So you are saying the physical you hold on behalf of clients as their unallocated "all goes" and you are not holding their metal any longer. Hmmm... so what happens next? Is the unallocated holders left exposed until the next delivery of metal? (I'm assuming it gets spurchased as it is sold)
So if there will ever be a real shortage of raw silver ( it will never happen as we were been told before ) good luck to all Perth Mint's unallocated holders to get their hands on their physical before PM decides to prior mint/sell coins evn there is no source to refill unallocated.
If we can't buy replacement raw metal then we don't sell in the first place and the stock just sits there. We don't sell and then go oh shit we can't find any raw metal as that would leave us with an exposure to metal prices. Our policy on unallocated is clearly spelt out here https://www.perthmint.com/storage/help/faq-storage-options.html#what-is-unallocated-storage.
Well as real production is falling world wide as PM miners go broke and big base metal miners scale back, I hope the PM has a plan for when metals dry up. Otherwise we will be minting our own lunars and kooks. Bron may be right that there is no immediate shortage today but tomorrow? A shortage is coming sometime soon, tomorrow next month, next year and whatever the price it can't be corrected in the short or medium term.....
Supply and demand - falling prices that start hurting mining feasibility result in constrained supply that results in higher prices over the long term... that makes mining more feasible. C'mon, we've seen this heaps in the gold market - how many times have mines been mothballed and recommissioned. A lot of miners will also trade at a loss for a long time because it's cheaper to trade at a loss then decommission/recommission a mine. Silver is a bit more problematic because it's often commodity byproduct like from copper mining - but the same rules apply. Industries that *need* silver will continue to be able to buy it, and if demand is tight, that will drive up spot because they're not in the market for 1oz silver coins, they're in the market for 1000oz bars. Fabrication capacity constraints (rizfukt) that drive up retail product premiums only affect the investor market - it's stackers and IRA trustees that are driving this demand, not Valmex or Bosch. While an x-ray film manufacturer can get the silver it needs without bidding up the spot price or driving up futures, there's no shortage.
GP shortages always start in the investors products and by the time it hits the industrial supply it's all over. I don't see miners just starting up again even if prices spike up. Look at South African gold miners. All are going bust despite an all time high in the gold price in SA Rand. Similarly Australian. Gold miners are collapsing and gold is about 10% below an all time high in Au$. So it is clear that to be profitable and sustainable for miners gold in Au $ probably needs to double in SA Rand even higher.
Australian gold miners are actually doing very well. Most have gone up multiple times in terms of share price from their lows and some are churning out 20% of their market cap each year in operating cash flow.
Talking about the surge, it hit me pretty hard, 2 of my suppliers dried on several items I were selling. On the +, it got me up off my ass and I found some cool new suppliers. Now I can sell the 2015 Silver Maple Leaf coins in Canada @ $26 each which is under what Kitco and a few other places can offer.. When something happens that affects you negatively, you need to turn it into a positive somehow. This time it worked.
Where do you get that info - ?????????? seriously !!!! Yes a few companies Like N star may be up fractionally (not all time highs) but most are down way down Here is the 3 year Chart Au ASX gold miners index - looks great hahaha http://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/all-ordinaries-gold-sub-industry
