What is your plan for the coming Recession?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs' started by JulieW, Aug 15, 2019.

  1. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It may not occur.

    BUT considering Bail-ins, Negative interest rates, deflation, inflation, stagflation and the blunt force instruments of government policy, can I invite views?

    What are you doing to prepare, and protect you and yours in the coming economic conflagration?
     
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  2. whay

    whay Active Member

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  3. raven

    raven Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Get better
    Push out all competitors !
    :)
     
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  4. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

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    it's already here. drought is so bad in my neck of the woods that economic activity is grinding to a halt. this summer growing season looks to be a non event unless we get some highly unlikely flood event in the next 3 months. several town water supplies will be empty in the next few months and there is even no water for stock let alone feed for them. about the only real activity going on at the moment is earthmoving; cleaning out empty dams is where it's at. the horticulture industry here will basically have to go almost 2 years without income assuming it floods before oct/nov 2020. the purse strings were tightened months ago and every local business will suffer.
     
  5. ParanoidAndroid

    ParanoidAndroid Well-Known Member

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    Hi Ag,

    do you mind giving me a rough idea of the area you're referring to?
     
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  6. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

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    granite belt. the whole new england is desperate. the simpson desert is now only a few hundred kilometers inland from the pacific ocean.
     
  7. mongrelmaple

    mongrelmaple Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Absolutely correct. In case anyone isn’t aware of the situation in that part of the world, here’s a look. These photos were sent to the Higgins fb page by a member flying into Armidale. Scary stuff.

    072D26D5-992B-4D76-9E76-73BBE2333A89.jpeg BE70CC2F-0346-4B7C-A2C1-087BD8BBD39C.jpeg
     
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  8. ParanoidAndroid

    ParanoidAndroid Well-Known Member

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    Thanks. Sounds grim indeed.

    I had no idea it was that bad so close to the major towns and city.

    Here's to some rain.
     
  9. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

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    And the new england isn't considered a low rainfall region. Like I said, the desert is now only a stones throw to the west.

    Tomatoes could be a fortune in the shops this summer. There will be bugger all coming out of the granite belt and if Victorian growers get heat waves like last year then there will be very little summer grown tomatoes on the market.
     
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  10. Jim4silver

    Jim4silver Well-Known Member

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    I don't think the US ever really left its recession from the mid 2000s. How can one say the economy is going great when interest rates are kept near 0%, you have QE going on, etc.? Even if the numbers look good, they were obtained by interfering in the free market by the gov/Fed. It's like giving an athlete Dianabol and saying his great results are natural. Things can go for a bit with all that going on, but eventually reality shows up. As they say, you can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the effects of ignoring reality.

    Once they started raising interest rates the tiniest amounts (that are still unbelievably low) and started QT (clearing the balance sheet at the Fed), things start slowing down and Trump starts crying about wanting lower rates. If everything needs 0% interest rates (or negative rates) for things to flow, then things can't be good (long term wise).

    I think someday the US (and other countries as well) will have a massive depression or whatever you want to call it. It will be like a wildfire in the forest. It will clear out all the crap (and healthy too unfortunately), and things start over again. Maybe that will be when the US dollar finally goes out?

    I think another reason they want low interest rates is because the US debt is so high now, that we as a country won't be able to make the interest payments if the interest rates get too high, let alone ever paying the debt itself (as the debt number itself grows $1-$2 Trillion per year). This just simply cannot end well.

    I have as much silver as I want (relative to my other assets), so I only buy now when I can get cool stuff really cheap. I have been putting money aside for other future investments and am happy keeping it as dry powder until I am ready to spend it.

    At some point in the future I hope to purchase some rental RE so I can use that to fund my retirement. All the people I know who own rentals do well with them, even with the headaches that go along with it. I think in the future there will be great demand for rentals because many won't be able to buy their own house.
     
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  11. ozcopper

    ozcopper Administrator Staff Member

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    I think the country has been in a recession for some time.
     
  12. Drake181

    Drake181 Member

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    Invest in precious metals; gold/silver bullion and lead.
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2019 at 3:33 AM
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  13. Aurora et luna

    Aurora et luna Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  14. sammysilver

    sammysilver Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The usual drill:

    Food
    Cash
    PM's
    Lady friend
    Spare Sudoku books and pen

    I just carry on as if it's here.
     
  15. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Well looking into this I realised that I'd instinctively been preparing for recessions for a long time. The old saying that a recession is when your neighbor is thrown out of work, and a depression is when you're thrown out of work seems to ring true.

    So for anyone interested, here's my list.

    Put 10% of your incomes away for the future. (into PMs and cash. It took about 6 pays to adjust to this one but it's the single best trick I've found.)

    Skill up for a second job or income stream, and save one stream if both are on line.

    Survey your finances, incoming and outgoing. (I do this quarterly)

    Sell or donate or chuck consumer junk you no longer need.

    Record all spends and assess your providers at least annually. (I do a pro/con exercise on things like switching utility providers etc)

    Keep a list of future purchases you need/want and only shop from this list. (no impulse buys).

    Put 6 months basic expenses aside in a term deposit. Put a month aside as cash at home. Put a week's aside as coins and 5 and 10 dollar notes. Always carry enough to make it home.

    Have a spare week of groceries in the cupboard. Buy bulk whenever feasible and become your own supermarket.

    Buy real food so you don't pay industries to cook for you.​

    Basically, I work at living within my means. I don't buy things I don't need. I save for rainy days, and I think I have realistic plans but I check regularly to ensure they are realistic and reasonable.

    This guy was a great help.
    http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/

    p.s. Also, try not to borrow money (apart from for a house since that is almost always debt), and if you have to borrow, try and pay 2 lots of interest into each repayment.
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2019 at 1:48 PM
  16. Ag bullet

    Ag bullet Well-Known Member

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    my old man always used to say that you should run while others are walking so you can walk while others are running.
     
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  17. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Active Member

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    No I think it goes.....
    Before you talk bad about someone, walk a mile in their shoes.
    That way when you talk bad about them you are a mile away and you have their shoes.
     
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  18. mrsilverservice

    mrsilverservice Well-Known Member

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    I am continuing to trust lean and rely upon The Lord and Not my own understanding :)

    Plus plenty of $$$$$$$$ and some yellow insurance to be practical and a good pillow :D

    -

    -

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    The Book of Proverbs Chapter 3 verse 5 & 6

    Trust in The Lord with all your heart,and lean not on your own understanding,in all your ways acknowledge Him and He shall direct your paths :)
     
  19. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    How much does a recession actually affect Joe Average?
    Sure if you lose your job and can't get another, that's a bad spot to be in.
    But on average how much worse off are people going to be?

    Your ability to earn an income should always be top priority, preferably from multiple sources.
     
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  20. Agnostic

    Agnostic Active Member Silver Stacker

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    I don't know the future and cannot presume, life is precious and precarious, but....

    I have hired extra staff this year in newly-created roles, and expanded my service-based business. The economic environment is very tough, possibly the toughest I have ever seen, but I just keep my head down and going.
     
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