What’s the long-term outcome and how do we get there???

Discussion in 'Current Affairs' started by Oddjob, Mar 20, 2020.

  1. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    All the talk is about what’s happening now re social distancing, limits on groups of people, working from home, schools closing, businesses laying off workers / closing down, self-isolation, Govt stimulus spending (running up the national credit card) etc and a general crash landing for the global economy as a result of impact on business and Govt policy in dealing with Coronavirus

    Fast foreword 12 months and let’s assume Coronavirus is still around but not the “pandemic” it now is. Govt’s have printed $ like crazy the past 6-12 months to keep society from falling apart (and maybe that worked), unemployment is double digit, some industries are totally destroyed (ie travel and hospitality), banks have been decimated by bad loans, insurers have gone to the wall as they can’t afford to pay claim (just to name a few that dominate share markets) and peoples savings are smashed (ie super or cash at bank used up due to unemployment).

    So how does a Govt and society that has been effectively closed down for say 6 -12 months and seen huge declines in economic activity and standard of living pull itself out of the abyss? The members of this forum are generally more informed and educated than the average person on the street who is only worried about where they get their next toilet paper roll from……

    What has to happen (at the Gov't level) or may happen to get beyond what is unfolding before us. …….How do Govt’s and the private sector get back to some level of economic normality or are we headed for a “Brave New World” like some have forecast or will society recover like it did post the Great Depression??
     
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  2. Slimey

    Slimey Well-Known Member

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    A deflationary depression....which is what happened after the last uncontrolled credit expansion.
     
  3. Slimey

    Slimey Well-Known Member

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    It will be a paradox. So much money made available but so little circulating.
     
  4. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It's simple. When we reach depression level, they'll release a new currency. Possibly a global currency based on a crypto-currency like China has been working on. Then they'll give everyone a once-off "stimulus payment" (e.g. equivalent of $100K or thereabouts).

    Bank bail-in laws, and cash-bans were in expectation of this event coming.
     
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  5. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This whole scenario aligns perfectly with the "New World Order" - "One World Government" agenda. Everything is falling into place and has been outlined clearly for all of those who seek the truth. A new monetary system, global control and one world government is going to come out of this. Our freedoms and privacy will become further diluted as the majority stand together in fear and seek the warm soft embrace of our political Shephard's.

    Unfortunately, our biggest enemy is the uninformed masses and the segregation within our communities. We have the real power.

    "When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace" - Jimi Hendrix
     
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  6. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The reason many of us have prepped for the worst because we have seen a 30 year manipulated Bull market. (Hashed and smashed a thousand times before)
    You can't plan against legislation that "may" occur but you can look at history as your guide.
    To survive you all know the basics.
    Some, may feel they need toilet paper, but you don't, some may think they need bread, cakes, Maccas, KFC, some may think they need 2 cars, a boat a holiday every year but you don't, some say they need a big house so they can impress their mates but they don't.
    But, I digress. You can, as an individual, down size the crap you own, you can eat less expensive but more nutritional food, you can learn what really matters in life.
    Do you know what matters in life?
    *A dry place to lay your head without fear that you or your family will be harmed.
    *Fresh food that will keep you healthy. + (Plenty of canned sardines and Mackerel in olive oil)
    *Fresh clean drinking water.
    *Laughter.
    *Good neighbors who respect each other.
    *Happy children who play.

    What to expect from the Government:
    *Have they had an emergency plan or are they winging / off the cuff policy.
    *Are you aware of the possible shift towards Socialism and Communism?
    *If things get tough how would you like to be able to protect yourself and your family if your only protection is a kitchen knife and a screw driver?
    *When will a vaccine be available?
    *Why haven't the government told the public about their housing arrangements for the sick when the medical system becomes congested?
    *What is the point of splashing cash if it's just for political fame?
    *What needs to be done is all in the pages of history except that we, today, can communicate with each other quickly.

    Well, I got a bit off track there so...........
    H

    PS: If you haven't, start a vegetable garden, but only grow food that will grow quickly in your location.
    Quick growing food right now for say Sydney is:
    *Cos Lettuce
    *Bok Choy
    *Spring Onions
    *Chicory (Some folk call it Raddichio)
    *Cabbage
    *Brussels Sprouts (You'll need to protect all brassicas from white butterfly / moth)
    *Silverbeet
    *Beetroot.
    *If you have room, spuds.
     
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  7. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    That's a good question.
    We can drag this out for years or just get it over with.
    Everyone get the virus and get back to dang work.
    Stop avoiding it. Just live your lives.
    Or suffer??
     
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  8. heartastack

    heartastack Active Member Silver Stacker

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    This guy's channel is probably the best find I've had in 10 years scratching around the darkest corners of youtube. Its refreshing to have a macro view from an historian's perspective rather than purely economic/financial/political.

     
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  9. sterling-nz

    sterling-nz Well-Known Member

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    Unless the whole planet starts taking more severe measures NOW then COVID19 will still be around in 12 months time and we will not be looking at world clock or BNO for updates on death rates because they will have lost track as the numbers will be in the many millions.
    This has literally JUST THE START of a global pandemic .
    We are not past the start and somewhere in the middle IT IS JUST THE BEGINNING.
    China got the numbers under control because the shut down an entire country and smashed their economy and now they have loosened that the cases have begun to appear again.
    The thing is China cases have risen slowly again even though almost every person you see has a mask on and you look at western nations or poor nations and we think masks are a joke and getting carried away.
    This is going to be horrendous UNLESS shit changes very very quickly.
     
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  10. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    We are all concerned about what the next few months will look like. There will be hard times, food shortages sometimes and our normal life will be no where to be seen. But this event will disappear early as fast as it appeared in all likelihood. A treatment of vaccine will become available in the next 12 - 15 months. Many people will get sick and recover and they will be few to work and do what is necessary so within six months this will bring some level of stability. People will adapt and find different ways of doing things.

    Economically it will be a big hit but things will ramp up again pretty quickly in something like 12 months. The long term impacts won’t be know for a few years after things have so to speak normalised.

    The talk about the greatest depression etc is way to early but it is always talked about at this early stage of these events. Same in 2000, 2008 and now.

    Do not mistake my words. The next few months will be very challenging. No doubt will will see some social chaos in some places. If you do get well prepared now you will definitely suffer a lot more. But in two years we will be saying wow that was like a huge slap in the face but now the pain has subsided and it will just be coffee table chatter.

    Some of our friends and family will die. This is a fact not affecting us on the forum as far as I know but will soon enough. That will be heartbreaking. Some of us will no doubt die. This is heartbreaking and there is no way to avoid this pain.

    Be kind to everyone. Everyone is just doing the best they can with what they know. Sometimes that is far from perfect in our eyes. We must look after ourselves in these times but still try to be kind anyway.
     
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  11. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Good points.
    No one is privy to what the outcomes are but you can do really well by supporting one another in your local area / family.
    Be kind, be thoughtful and share if you can.
    Remember, many couples never spend a lot of time together, they will find it tough being in the presence of each other for extended periods. Give each other space. Some things you could do to provide comfort and space for one another are:
    *You may want to buy a separate bed.
    *Perhaps have your own TV so that there's no conflict.
    *Perhaps buy a walky-talky instead of increasing the phone bill.
    *Build a new computer or upgrade with a few spare parts.
    *Perhaps buy some building material for a few jobs that need doing or maybe buy some paint to do the house.
    *Think about all those little jobs that need doing, jot them down now and source the bits and pieces you need now.
    *Have a good supply of hobbies; the good old jigsaw puzzle are pretty good or other type of things.
    *Perhaps have a few foam boxes with potting mix for some kitchen herbs; herbs are a great source of vitamin C especially flat leaf parsley.
    *If you have camping gear, bring it out of storage, give it the once over so that you know how to set it up and make sure you have enough tent pegs. (The best and strongest tents are made by Hilleberg)
    *If you have gas bottles, get them filled and make sure the fittings are in good order.
    *If you have white fuel or metho burners, be sure to know how they work and have some spare methylated spirits on hand.
    *If you have those little squat gas cartridges and a burner, it might be time to check they work as well.
    *Grab a handful of matches or a few cheap cig lighters.
    *Pull out some of your winter blankets and winter clothes, make sure they are all ok.
    *If you like a certain type of boot or footwear, buy a spare pair especially if they are made in China.
    *If you like a beer or wine, be sure to not over consume, try not to upset your partner by drinking too often, come to an agreement before things get out of hand because closed in together and booze will not make for a happy couple.
    *Don't blame one another if someone gets sick, work together as a team and family group to ensure life outcomes are met.
    *Don't be scared to ration if someone is being selfish.
    *Consider buying a few padlocks, and some hasp and staples so you can secure cabinets. Think about more security, deadlocks.

    Although the above list seems a bit weird, you never know if you'll have to help someone, the above could save thier or your life. Being pro-active now could keep you sane if suburbs get closed down.
     
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  12. sterling-nz

    sterling-nz Well-Known Member

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    I would like to think that what you have said is likely but quite frankly i think it i wishful thinking.
    You say in 6 months it might be back to some sense of normality but i think it will be the opposite.
    At this stage we are not even 3 months in and its JUST STARTING to effect many countries directly and some countries have not even acknowledged an issue.
    It was not long ago President Trump was tell us that "we only have 15 cases and we have it under control" now they have 24000 and a that is just a couple of weeks later ,that is just 0.007% of the population and estimates on the LOW SIDE suggest a 40% infection rate is very likely.

    This does not end with a vaccine but a vaccine may stop it from happening again in the future.
    This stops when we close shit down and kill the virus but we have probably past that point so now it will stop when it has scorched the earth and taken a generation of elderly.
    Im not a doomsayer i am a realist and when this family was preparing for this months ago people told us we were over reacting and it turns out we were not.
    Even now i see western countries still packing people together in markets and NOT MANY WEAR MASKS because they either do not want to offend people or think it is unnecessary.
    Even the pharmacy i bartered at the other said they are not wearing masks because it might scare customers and even if they did they would not have enough masks to last through this.
    Seriously anyone can have it and we should all be acting like we do and taking the same precautions as if we are infected because then we will slow and even stop transmission.
    My doctor was on the front page of our local rag this week saying at the first case of community transmission he is shipping his family and inlaws away to their holiday house for protection from him so he can keep working.
    He said in the article he never expected this in his life time, JUST A MONTH AGO when i was talking to him about this he told me i was over reacting and no doubt ignored my advice to get ready and when i see him next week i will be very tempted to say I TOLD YOU SO DAN.
    Its not like i am some loon patient because we used to work together but even then he thought i was be a drama queen.
     
  13. sterling-nz

    sterling-nz Well-Known Member

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    Just as an add on.
    New Zealand currently has 221 intensive care beds with ventilators.

    That is for the entire country of 5,000,000 people

    EDIT: This here is another major ,seriously major issue.
    This is the comments from 2 different people that we should give equal weight to their opinions as they are knowledgeable in the field of disease yet we have 2 different views and which do we say is right NOW ,instead of in hindsight.
    Here is what their views are:"
    Epidemiologist Michael Baker has called for school closures and public transport bans, while microbiologist Siouxsie Wiles said at this stage schools should only be closed to deal with known cases. "
    We have to find the view thats suits us i guess ,but it is hard going when EXPERTS have opposing views.

    EDIT: we also have issues like this guy.
    Tūwharetoa Trust Board has confirmed one of its staff members, Te Mahau Kingi, tested positive for the virus after returning to Auckland from London via Dubai on 12 March.

    He then flew to Taupō on 14 March, self-isolated and was tested on Tuesday.

    He is in this article because he could not contact authorities.
    BUT LOOK AT WHAT THE IDIOT SAID , he got on a plane full of people after arriving in NZ to get to his self isolation house.
    IT IS NOT ISOLATION when you take planes and people are too dumb to understand just how easily viruses can spread.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2020
  14. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Perhaps the best gauge is going to be the actual flu seasons; Northern and Southern.
    The Northern flu season will finish in a month or two and our Southern flu season will start in a month or two.
    If the folk in the Northern hemisphere get hit hard when they are going out of their flu season, that's really bad news for the rest of us. (maybe)
     
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  15. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Currently in isolation for 48 hours until acquaintance gets his results back. He was exposed and currently has a fever. If positive i will have to get tested and quarantined for 14 days.
     
  16. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Take care folks!
     
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  17. minimilled

    minimilled Active Member

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    Your doctor is probably a coward and in a society with a backbone he would only be front page as an example of a lily-livered flake.
     
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  18. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Biological vs Nuclear War
    I can't remember where I read this guys, so please take it with a grain of salt. :)
    In a Biological war, 1 soldier would die for every 12civilians.
    In a Nuclear war, 1 soldier would die for every 8 civilians.

    Now you can go back to your novel arguing! :)
     
  19. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Harsh
     
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  20. madaw1

    madaw1 Well-Known Member

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    We have real power,but we don't have /most of us/ the awareness how to use it-and this real problem...
     

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