Webjet (WEB)

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by finicky, Nov 12, 2013.

  1. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Down as much as much as 10% today. Company just given FY14 EBITDA guidance. Buying despite extreme monthly volatility.

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_web_nov_11_2013.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  2. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=WEB&E=ASX&N=397914

    Financial Years 2004 - 2013

    Return on Equity (%) -97.20 28.50 9.00 17.50 22.20 22.70 26.40 27.80 41.80 10.80

    Earnings (cents) -2.70 2.60 3.50 4.60 8.90 10.20 13.80 14.30 18.80 8.70

    Book Value ($) 0.03 0.09 0.33 0.31 0.40 0.45 0.52 0.53 0.46 0.77

    Shares outstanding (m) 42.70 58.00 80.40 74.30 74.90 75.10 76.90 75.80 71.10 79.40

    Zero debt.

    Cash + receivables - payables = net $20m cash

    Seems fair chance to resume growth FY15 or so?
     
  3. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Directors buying

    Name of Director ROGER SHARP
    Date of change 13/11/13
    Number acquired: 90,000
    Value/Consideration: $243,365.08
    Nature of change: On market purchase

    Name of Director DAVID CLARKE
    Date of change 13/11/13
    Number acquired: 4,000
    Value/Consideration: $10,880
    Nature of change : On-Market Trade

    Name of Director STEVEN SCHEUER
    Date of change 13/11/13
    Number acquired: 150,000
    Value/Consideration: $404,705.59
    Nature of change: On-Market Trade

    Name of Director: ALLAN NAHUM
    Date of change: 14/11/13
    Number acquired: (b) 12,133 (c) 5,000
    Value/Consideration: (b) $33,729.74 (c) $13,900
    Nature of change: On market purchase
     
  4. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Price closed at 2.62 today, Fri Nov 15, and went as low as 2.58. I added @ 2.65. Reached my target of 10,000 shares but open to adding if things get crazy. Already pointed out in prior post is the skin directors have been exposing at higher prices than most of today's range, but now comes the Appendix 3B announcement about the managing director being lavished with 3,000,000 free unlisted options to incentivise him beyond his already enormous salary (FY13 base salary $574,999, total package $1,154,638). Once you get over that, what's of interest to a shareholder is the exercise prices of these three tranches of options. He doesn't get any of them to materialize into shares unless the share price reaches a minimum of $5, because that is the exercise price of the lowest priced tranche. He's got until June 2018 before expiry however.

    Class of securities issued : Unlisted options
    Purpose of the issue :
    As part of the remuneration package of the Managing Director
    Number of securities issued : 3,000,000

    Unlisted options exercisable as follows:
    (a) 1,000,000 options vesting on 30 June
    2015, exercisable from that date for up to
    three years at a price of $5 per share

    (b) 1,000,000 options vesting on 30 June
    2016, exercisable from that date for up to
    three years at a price of $5.50 per share

    (c) 1,000,000 options vesting on 30 June
    2017, exercisable from that date for up to
    three years at a price of $6 per share.
     
  5. Caput Lupinum

    Caput Lupinum Active Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm hesitant to buy any internet portal business shares. I missed an opportunity with REA Group but it is now well over-priced in my opinion. The risk of further local and international compeition along with competing with the much loved Flight Centre maskes to too risky for my liking. Good luck with it though.
     
  6. gimmiethegold

    gimmiethegold New Member

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    Qan shares? I looked at them when Joyce first had come on board.
     
  7. jparrie

    jparrie New Member

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    Good pick finicky, I have had my my eye on them for a while. I think 2014 will see better numbers and they are good value at the current price. Nice to see a decent company plugged on here.
     
  8. Bargain Hunter

    Bargain Hunter Member

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    Good to see a few individuals on this forum discussing ASX listed companies that actually generate a profit, unlike all the speccy mining rubbish.
     
  9. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I have a trial going with 'Intelligent Investor' and came across a viewer question on Webjet (WEB). I've paraphrased a bit for brevity.

    Viewer Qn 20/11/2013:

    "Webjet was an AVOID reviewed back in March when price was at ~$4.90.
    Now in the $2 area, it's coming up on stock val as being a potential purchase, is yielding ~5% and I have seen one value based recommendation on it from another broker - is it worth another look?"

    Answer:

    "We can't imagine a price at which we'd want to own an AVOID stock and that remains the case with Webjet. The trouble is that we see its business model as flawed in that it essentially onsells, with little added value, product sourced from relatively few powerful companies.
    Carsales (CRV), by contrast, gets its product from thousands of dealers and private individuals and it adds value by bringing together buyers and sellers that might not otherwise come together. And Flight Centre (FLT), for example, add a service element to the flights and other holiday products, which customers value.
    It's generally best to steer clear of flawed business models."

    While Intel Invstr has a dim view of the business model and can think of no price at which it would interest, Motley Fool's 'Hidden Gems' subscriber service reiterated a BUY on the company on Nov 18th.
     
  10. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Heheh, that's mildly reassuring. Just browsing Intelligent Investor and they reviewed Webjet with an AVOID in March 2013 at $4.91(good call), and had an avoid on Codan (good call), but looks like they've screwed up royally on QBE along with a lot of other analysts (including Scott Phillips at Motley Fool).

    09 Dec 13 ISSUE 383 STOCKS IN DETAIL
    QBE upgraded to Buy
    QBE's share price has fallen over 20% after announcing another profit downgrade replete with large write-offs. We're upgrading to Buy.
    PRICE AT REVIEW: $12.00

    Also interestingly Intel Investor has been skeptical of Webjet from much lower prices than today, so that is also a little reassuring. They had coverage with a "No View" on 02 Mar 2007 ISSUE 217 when the price would have been about $1.50
    Accompanied the sentiment were these comments:

    "Webjetthe unnecessary middleman?
    Despite good results recently, we're not convinced that this is a great internet business."

    The ROE from FY07 to FY12 was very robust each year. The share issuance was held steady and the book value went on a rising trend. The share market responded by increasing the market cap more than 3x before the current downtrend.

    It's possible they'll be right in the end but not looking too apt an appraisal so far.
     
  11. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Low of $2.40 today so far. Directors were buying this on market when it was $2.70
    2.50 looked a fair bet of support. Volume's not high, just no buyers coming forward. Wonder if it's an opportunity or is there something undisclosed as turned out to be the case with Codan (CDA).

    Edit:
    This is the reason Webjet is taking a hit - collateral damage from online accommodation lister Wotif.
    Wotif (WTF) has announced lower HI profit and said that conditions too volatile to offer full year guidance. Wotif share price currently down 28%

    -----------------------------------------------------

    Wotif.com Holdings Limited
    Wednesday 18 December 2013

    Market Update

    Wotif.com Holdings Limited (Wotif Group) today provides an update to the market in
    relation to the first half results for fiscal year 2014. As part of this market update, the
    key half-year on half-year (YoY) financial comments and trends are as follows:

    Net Profit After Tax for the half is expected to be in the range of $21.9m to
    $22.6m, compared to $27.5m in the prior half-year.
     
  12. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Got out of this one a few trading days ago @ 3.06 for a small profit
    The conviction of the 'Intelligent Investor' tip service against this business had been niggling at me, and then came announcement that the co-founder of the company (no longer on the board) had sold 38% of his remaining shares. This with a dividend coming up.
    Anyway need some cash. Stock is 3.16 today
     
  13. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    L.D (Lunardragon) pm'd me, putting some ideas about WEB and querying my opinion of 'the technicals'. That's sweet considering my recent batting average.
    Thought I might as well reply here. I actually like the way the chart is behaving - although not today obviously. My bet would be price should kick on if it closes then confirms above this consolidation, i.e above ~3.20. By "confirms" I just mean another day or two after a break above 3.20, and with strong looking candles
    I suspect it will fwiw, but just a mad guess.
    I like the way the last two months of price recovery got a lead in from positive divergence of the momentum indicators on the daily chart. The price made a lower low in Dec compared to Nov, but the RSI and MACD made higher lows. That gives more confidence in the rally off the Dec low.
    The price gapped up with volume after the strong Dec Half result was announced in Feb, yet 8 trading days later this gap still doesn't look in danger. On the contrary the price has cupped and might be forming the 'handle' now. Lip is about at 3.20
    The monthly chart is looking a lot more tentative, but I'd still go for a positive view while the daily stays good.
    Anyway, just my notions - I sold because the founder sold

    [​IMG]
     
  14. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    WEB chart:

    [​IMG]
     
    wrcmad likes this.
  15. slavaja

    slavaja Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hmm looks kinda cheap any thoughts? I know they did capital raising at $1.70
     
  16. OneDay

    OneDay Active Member

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    Why buy this at this time? Sounds nuts. Its a hot potato.
     
  17. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    VAH looked pretty cheap last week too.
     
  18. slavaja

    slavaja Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Wouldn't be buying it atm but it is on my watch list
     
  19. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Cheap flights are gone for year or two... Cant see any airline seating 3 or 4 people abreast in economy?

    If planes fly with an empty seat in between paying passengers, for a year or two.... economy planes tickets automatically doubles.

    The layout for business and first is more separation friendly but if a third of seats are crossed out... prices will likely double as well.

    Than after each flight planes will likely need to be deep cleaned... more cost and time on the ground

    Airports are likely to have staff manning thermal cameras everywhere and that cost will be passed on to airlines too...
     

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