We have "3 or 4 more months left" -- MSM, not ZeroHedge, WTF?

"With luck, the rest of us outside China will have three or four more months to order our own affairs before the storm gathers"

WTF? Is there a change in narrative in the MSM? I'm surprised to see an article with such a short-term apocalyptic conclusion in the MSM (normally their doom and gloom predictions are on the fuzzy timeframe of years and decades).

Article summary: there's rot in China's gi-f*cking-normous bond markets, and a powerful political move was just made via an anonymous, front-page article in China's Politburo mouthpiece newspaper, that could signal a serious political upset is brewing:

....

China's Communist Party goes way of Qing Dynasty as debt hits limit

Key points:

* Somebody very powerful (and anonymous) has authored and ordered publication of a front-page article in the People's Daily that declares war on debt and the "fantasy" of perpetual stimulus and commands China to break its addiction to credit and take its punishment before matters spiral out of control. It described leverage as the "original sin" and warned of a "systemic financial crisis", demanding a halt to the "old methods" of reflexive stimulus.

* China's debt is approaching $30 trillion. The fresh credit alone created since 2007 is greater than the outstanding liabilities of the US, Japanese, German, and Indian commercial banking systems combined.

* Defaults are spreading up the ladder from local SOE's to the bigger state behemoths, once thought - wrongly - to have a sovereign guarantee.

Enjoy: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ty-goes-way-of-qing-dynasty-as-debt-hits-lim/

...




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FYI the S&P500 50wma just crossed the 100wma. The last time this occurred was a couple of months before the GFC and the time before that was a couple of months before the dot.com bust. Would suit the timing of the article

 

If investors get spooked and shift out of equities and into safe haven assets or even cash then it could become a self-fulfilling crisis prediction. Worth watching over coming months.

 

Got a chart with a date for that by any chance? I've read it crossed a year after the dot com burst. Dot Com climax was circa March 2000 and the WMA cross was circa Jan 2001.

 

Did Wayne Swan take over the running of China's treasury?

 

if only they were so lucky to have the worlds best treasurer in charge of their finances.

 

While waiting for someone with charting analysis skills to help out, here's my quick attempt:

S&P 500, MACD (bottom section) and EMA (thick red line):

(a) Since the 1960's




(b) Since the ~93




(c) Last 10 years

 

China, absolute worst-case scenario (this would be very bad):

* A major economic crash and citizen anger provides a stage for the faction of PLA hawks to dominate the CPC.

* PLA generals are far more insular and indoctrinated in nationalism than is the current CPC leadership faction. This leads to hubris.

* There will be a purge of dovish CPC "intellectuals" who will be found to have all manner of corrupt investments outside of China (the current Chinese leadership are strongly represented in the Panama Papers for example... so very convenient).

* The dominant propaganda narrative of Chinese superiority and "foreign enemies of the people" (who will be blamed for China's economic problems along with the newly imprisoned ex-CPC leadership) will result in calls for a show of military strength and retaliation.

* The need to appease the people to justify and consolidate their power grab leads the newly dominant CPC faction to approve military action, possibly the South China Sea, or against easy target or perceived weak neighbor like Vietnam.

* As soon as the missiles start flying, shit spirals out of control leading to a global economic collapse and potentially a full-scale war.

 

Silverpete,

If China annexed part of Vietnam, who would help, no one came to help Ukraine.

 

Saw this article the other day which has the charts...
https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/1342

 

China is unlikely to have a major economic crash in the sense that a western country would.

 

Time will tell. The fear is that it will be far bloodier than a Western crash, and no one knows what will emerge from the ashes.

 

I thought Russia came to help Ukraine?

 

One more last push until the music stops please

 

Also showing the crossing after the tech dot com bubble burst.

 

uni polar world has changed, may be next June 30, Rodrigo Duterte in in the Philippine will kick out US bases, Japan was not too happy with their US base there

the Saudi would change side too

many more would be, the would be very fast.

the isolation of Russia and China, was turning into the isolation of USA, head and tail on the coin :lol:

so there is lesser than 2 months left.