Polls closed. Anecdotally 'No' appears to be ahead Results here http://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2015/jul/05/live-results-greek-referendum
It's certainly looking good for the NO vote at this early stage. Can't wait for the markets to open, particularly the European session
Expect no reaction at all. In fact, European Union arrogance may simply ignore a 'No' vote and keep pressurising Greece to take a deal. The market may even open positive on Monday. Of course it is all an illusion. The reality will eventually become apparent and it is then that the reaction will take place. The whole Euro concept was flawed from the start but nobody will admit it, probably because they don't understand why. As a consequence, they will do everything they can to prove they were right. Even ignore the very peril on their doorstep.
There's a much bigger picture I think. One of which we are not aware at all. Something probably only discussed at Bilderberg or in the Cone of Silence at IMF HQ or the basement at the BIS. As Alexander Pope said: Who breaks a butterfly upon a wheel?
I don't think so, expect 3 it 4 percent of red, possibly more on all the euro indexes, Spain especially. Bonds yields go down in a few countries where they are already low. Euro/dollar drops 1.5c and Christine Lagarde gives up in utter frustration and is seen swimming around the big fountain out front of the EP building in Brussels.
Getting killed. Didn't expect that, I had thought it would be neutral but it's getting eaten because the yen and dollar are going way up as safe havens. You would have thought Australia was as far away from euro risk as you could get and an obvious safe haven choice but I think the Chinese sell off I'd weighing on it. Broke down through $0.75, $0.747, that's a big move. Expect Aud priced metals to go up. It will be very interesting to see whether gold and silver to go up in USD, whether they can get ahead of the dollar index. Frankly,on a day like today, it will be a significant move if they go sideways in USD, that will be a big DXY priced jump. I wish they had a gold and silver index priced against a basket of the top 5 or so big currencies so that you could get a fair look at the actual price instead of having to consider dollar strength or weakness. I'm sure some smart cookie could figure out how to weight each currency. It's just a little crazyv to see, as we did earlier this year, people saying that gold isn't interesting and is going basically sideways even though the DXY went way up.
Oh and the Monday public holiday in the US couldn't be timed worse. Markets closed, traders at home, much much less liquidity to buy into any losses and if they come in Tuesday and things have already broken down they will be loathe to get in. Could see things go down a lot if US positions hit stop losses without anyone there to decide to let them go on a little longer.
AUD into new territory here and butt hurt on the german dax continues The germans look bad here now that the IMF and the US are saying debt relief is needed, could see some hints to what happens with decisions on the ELA if they change their position
The creditors did not want to negotiate with Varoufskis. If Greece really wants a new deal, Varoufskis had to go. The markets even if only briefly should act positively to this news.
