Gold priced in USD is currently at $1730. What’s your guess at the bottom? What are your thoughts on the drivers for gold (real interest rates, inflation, USD). The World Bank predicts that gold decreases to $1740 on average for 2021 and then be expected to decrease to $1400 by 2030. I don’t really believe this to be a credible prediction in my own opinion. If gold priced in USD decreases to $1400 that would be a nice buy.
The World Bank is probably making that call based upon the assumption that the major central banks will be tightening monetary policy. We'll see whether that actually pans out or not. https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/outlook-precious-metals-remains-bright-uncertainty-looms
The lower the better. If you're not in the 100oz AU club, you wouldn't want it to do anything except dip.
I have a share in the Harry Dent fund. he hasn't got anything right in the first 12 months so I can't see him being right here either.
US is in “fake it until you make it’ attitude atm…. trillions debts, DELTA unstoppable, they so-called unemployment @ ‘its lowest’ BS…and US ppl bought it! They’re on HIGH mode atm, winning olympics….Biden…. USD on move…etc..etc. M&A everywhere local and overseas… US feels like they’re on meth atm…
Market analysts are swaying between bullish and bearish outlooks. There seems to be some consensus around volatility though. Of all the reasons they cite that I've read, real rates of interest seem to be the most justifiable driver of gold prices due to the negative correlation between the two. Of course rising rates of inflation is also mentioned, though I'm not in the inflationary camp. Which could suggest then that if inflation remains rangebound and doesn't escalate, then the divergence between real rates and the POG will narrow, and we'll go bak to a 2013 - 2018 type scenario where gold remained pretty steady. And servicing sovereign debt is also put forward as a price driver however it's not an issue as governments can never run out of money, though the expansion of the money supply does erode purchasing power so from that sense, gold is likely to remain a sought after currency hedge.
As I see it, gold is set for a bigger correction but as we roll through to December the price "should" recover. The US stockmarket is still very bullish and being talked up more and more. It will correct, but when? For Aussies, our dollar may tank more as the media and state governments pump up sickness figures and stop folk from working. Having said that, summer may bring relief but the AUD vs USD atm doesn't change the price much if you are in a position to buy gold now. The other thing is, what gold to buy, and as usual, the availability is a consideration. Sure you can buy gold but if you want particular coins, you may find more of "out of stock" or limits imposed by mints such as Perth. Nothing seems to change apart from a few occassions per year when metal is over-sold. Imo ("often wrong") is that the US economy is going to take a hit; I think the Americans thought they were all going back to work but as they go into fall and winter they'll have problems with supply / logistics in various areas, just not metal production. Perhaps, we will see a softer USD which may make metal prices rise. Having said that, plenty of commentators have been saying that bitcoin is going to bounce as are stocks. I see the Afghanistan problem a building momentum as the Taliban take control and of course the border with Afgahistan and Pakistan could cause big problems for the pakistan government and India. This time it could be a very heated exchange if they get a larger foot-hold in Pakistan. More problems in the South China Sea. More disruption to supply and oil prices lower. I just can't see how things are rosy! A heated stock market with companies that can't fully employ folk; money printing and the rest of the BS that we heard about for the last 13 years +. Dips for me just mean buy or if you have plenty of cash, buy another property (get out of the cities) Long term, things are unravelling, inflation? Short term, seems like the year 2000 when gold was considered obsolescent and tech stocks were booming; we know how that played out. Gold and silver is the ticket, especially silver that appreciates as a collectable as well as it's bullion value.
