I don't think 80 is on the cards. Maybe 98. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a short term bounce. It's next to impossible to model Trump's political ambitions. Edited
Sure, maybe a bounce, but long-term trend from now on is now bearish on the USD imo. Until we reach discount which is below 92. Euro is my favourite right now, definitely the strongest currency. I think AUD will have it’s time soon, but I’m not certain it has cleared the inefficiencies it’s been seeking yet.
This popped up in my X feed from Lyn Alden, it's a piece from Hudson Bay Capital's Stephan Miran on the Trump tariffs. I first learned about it in November last year on a podcast so I'm pretty happy that I'm able to revisit the concept because I had been having trouble finding it. A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System And here is the link to the interview I listened to last year:
This is what happened to the Dixie in 2018 when Trump imposed his first tariffs, it took about 2 years to knock the USD down.
Time frames aside, it appears that the battle against the 10 year is the first victory to be won, then the DXY capitulates. Now, what are the time frames this time around? I'm thinking that they're far more compressed.
DXY still in the "range", some way to go yet in Trump and Bessent's plans. A Fed rate cut would provide assistance.
I was expecting oil to trade below 65.00 by June 2025 based on the assumption that Trump would broker peace. He's brokering conflict though, but the effect has been the same though the outcome is far from positive. Good for inflation though i guess.
Trumps too busy reciting "drill baby drill" and he keeps saying industry is coming back but I disagree. Why would they ever come back when the next guy will tell them to leave again? Why would oil companies invest multimillions into drilling and startups for no profit? The corps aren't stupid and they aren't about to waste money or energy on a government that hates them.
Quickly scrolled through the transcript of Spencer's, just struck me as being a bit of a religious zealot. Maybe I got it wrong but measuring economic achievements solely based on manufacturing capacity is a touch mercantilist.
Yea you got it wrong, he doesn't conclude economic achievements is solely based on manufacturing capacity.
Nah I'm right. Dude's a fkn lunatic. There's only 2 places on Earth a white guy with religious memorabilia would get an audience, Russia or the USA His position is based solely upon the US attempting to regain industrial dominance. Maybe kids in US schools should grow up dreaming about working on factory floors sewing gym clothes or soldering chips in mobile phones as a measure of US economic dominance? Even Schiff has a better grasp of the details.
The USA has a trade imbalance that benefits the US consumer ie regular everyday people seeking to satisfy their needs or wants. The average US citizen is wealthier than the average citizen of every other large and populous nation because it runs a trade deficit. A nation that runs a trade deficit imports more wealth than it exports. It's a net gain not a loss.
The USA has social problems that extend into the financial, labour and family space that aren't going to be solved by chucking 104% tariffs on goods those same people suffering from those problems consume to meet their needs and wants.
