US Dow Futures Down Over 600 Points.

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by ozcopper, Feb 24, 2020.

  1. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Probably going to balance the books for other losses, so doesn't really go anywhere as there might be no net positive. The credit comes from nothing, then disappears into nothing.
     
  2. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    At the moment the cash is likely parked in transaction account or money management, be it multinational or individual retail investors.

    For retail investors doubt they are buying low yield notes, bonds or term deposits.

    80% of my wealth is in cash be it super or investment and 5% in paper metals.

    My plan is if Dow goes down slowly over a week or two 24,000 or ASX 5,900 will invest 30% of the cash back in, if it drops/crashes to that level in days will re-evaluate and delay entry.

    if and when at any given moment USA gets hit with a cluster will liquidate all back to cash.

    The human psychology, is the factor. One thing I am guessing is that even if everyone goes back to work in China, Chinese will save more to replenish their nest egg rather go out splurge. Many Chinese didn’t get paid when they didn’t work. And also even if China has “recovered” but if other nations are still getting hit by the virus I strongly doubt Chinese will be spending.

    The demand side decline is I believe medium term.
     
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2020
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  3. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    worry to not, -20,000 points to go shit hole in
     
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  4. Lucenzo

    Lucenzo Member Silver Stacker

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    Thanks for the insight guys. Another thought I’ve been having is how much of this sell off is related too the fear itself of the virus verse the global economic impact and how far it would have to go before it would become a “black swan” event, if at all.
     
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  5. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    its more like a botak swan, featherless one
     
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  6. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I maybe wrong, but I don't think US stocks will go down much, maybe 10%-15%. Just look at China, 80% of the factories are closed, 70% of people are hiding at home. Economic growth is minus 50%. But the Shanghai stock market is even higher than a year ago.

    https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk01BeYN8PfOPbusZyVuhmwSimhdjNw:1582689784603&ei=-O1VXpi0JJzbz7sP1eCImAs&q=shanghai+stock+exchange+indez&oq=shanghai+stock+exchange+indez&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0i67i70i250j0i10l9.5191.6821..7020...1.2..0.67.411.7......0....1..gws-wiz.......0i71j0i131i67j0i67j0j0i13j0i131i67i70i250.3cABjnnRi8g&ved=0ahUKEwiYkJrzqu7nAhWc7XMBHVUwArMQ4dUDCAs&uact=5

     
  7. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I think Shanghai stock market might be getting a little assistance from the Master controller.
     
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  8. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    As will the Dow and Sp500, PPT have been busy since market open.
     
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  9. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ‘Just like any market. However giving access to cheap money to companies and businesses does not actually create orders. The demand from Chinese people who haven’t been paid will be to top up every yuan in to savings.

    Look at South Korea restaurants, hotels, sports, events and non essential spending is dead.
    No one is going to go to Kpop concert lol.

    Samsung and Apple likely spent billions on next phones.... Samsung bet big on galaxy 5g already what if there is no 5G this year ie no towers. What if US gets hit in October and how many people who work to eat and spend that pay with no savings will buy an iPhone release in November

    For example, if Australia gets hit with a big cluster, Qantas will fold without a bailout and say Village Roadshow gets wobbly, I doubt many would bat an eyelid if assistance was given by the government..... Doesn’t mean I’m getting on a plane for a trip to my offices in other states or overseas or going to the cinemas.
     
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2020
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  10. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    US market at the moment is going well due to domestic demand... if people can’t get Nike they will buy UnderArmour or Adidas.

    What if LA or NYC get a cluster..... demand contagion will kick in just like China and South Korea.

    if a cluster hit no adidas, Nike or under armour is a priority.

    As a business owner how long does a typical small business last with no customers, big business will get loans etc but again the demand disappears
     
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2020
  11. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    its the 20s again
     
  12. Lucenzo

    Lucenzo Member Silver Stacker

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    Yer that’s certainly interesting, those sort of numbers make me think there is further to go yet and the full effect may still yet too be felt outside of China.

    Will be interesting too see how it affects major construction projects like the tunnels in Melbourne and related works as I know a lot of the steel is coming pre fab out of China.
     
  13. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yup, it's all controlled. Look at Lebanon, why hasn't the banks folded? They won't because bank accounts are all frozen. People underestimate the power of governments and what they can do.
     
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  14. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I think it is when not if but hey dreams are free.
     
  15. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ‘it is only IF because it could be Dallas or Sans Francisco in context of USA of course it is 100% they will have a massive cluster
     
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  16. Lucenzo

    Lucenzo Member Silver Stacker

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    Can only begin too imagine what that would bring for the markets based on reactions soo far
     
  17. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If South Korea goes further into quarantine..... consider this South Korea controls 67% of “global semiconductors” market supply in the world.....

    78% of Drams are manufactured by Korean companies or key components are
    47% of NAND are manufactured by Korean companies or key components are
    45% of LCD are manufactured by Korean companies or key components are

    of course South Korea has factories in China too but many of the highly specialised chemicals and component are only manufactured in South Korea due to IP protection and shipped to Chinese factories. If these South Korean factories shut, the assemblers and packagers in China stops.... ie like Foxconn for iPhone
     
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2020
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  18. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yes, but if you don't test, you don't know. Just like in Singapore, they don't always test you unless you're a close contact of someone positive, you are from Wuhan and you're sick, or you have pneumonia...

    Going by what is happening in South East Asia, this disease is less contagious and also less fatal at 30C heat.

    So, it is a delay game. Delay till end of March.

    But the economic fallout is unavailable.
     
  19. pennys

    pennys Member

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    South Korea should be ok. Their healthcare system is not like the basket cases of China, Iran or Italy.
     
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  20. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    nothing is ok, untill or isis eh virus are terminated
     

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