Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by ozcopper, Feb 24, 2020.
Newcrest share price over the past 5 years:
GDX ETF over the same period:
She'll have no choice if she buys Argo.
Edit to add: better that than holding AUD though.
Today might be the day to buy the ETF USD as I can only see the AUD going down, .6601 at the moment.
Newcrest is the only share in her portfolio that I can see some possible appreciation in the future.
Compared to dogs like Myers and David Jones, its a winner.
Throw up a tread on your strategies to preserve and increase your wealth, I am always interested in learning new tricks.
Let's hope that's all it falls.
There's probably a lot in here https://www.silverstackers.com/forums/index.php?forums/wealth-creation-management.43/ so I won't replicate it with another post. And I'm notoriously shithouse at preserving my own wealth let alone recommending to others what they should do. I've made plenty of mistakes, or should I say the opportunity cost of making some decisions has bitten me on the arse a number of times.
I've learnt not to hold wealth in 1 or 2 assets and be diversified in my exposure to a variety of markets, and most importantly it's nearly impossible to time markets in order to jump in and out of and between asset classes, particularly when we have the job of daily living to attend to. Sell high and buy low is a great mantra that most people likely never manage to pull off. I've learnt that our financial system promotes asset bubbles, so if I'm not in that game I'm going to get shafted. I know what triggers these asset bubbles and I've got a pretty good handle on where monetary and fiscal policy is heading in the next few months and the implications of that. I've learnt to reject gold bulls as they have no grip on fundamentals or modern monetary theory, lap up contrarian investment advice, become optimistic rather than pessimistic and teach myself some rudimentary classical economic theory which helps me to recognise fallacies and plan better.
So with that in mind at the moment I don't hold AUD, I hold USD in the form of TUSD, I have exposure to crypto-currencies as they are the "new gold", I have exposure in my own name to shares on the ASX both gold companies and a couple of other industrials, I have precious metals, I have a small managed share portfolio with RAIZ which scoops up a few $ per week and invests it into more mainstream sharemarket activites, I have a mortgage and I have a SMSF which is also exposed to most of those asset classes with the exception of shares (which is where my losses because of opportunity cost has arisen over the past decade), but which shall be addressed at some future point when the opportunity arises.
Hopefully when I next stumble, as surely I will, the hole I fall in to won't be as deep as previous holes.
There's a rush at the moment, I'll wait (and hope) it cools. I've got USD tucked away anyway for that purpose.
It is not as hard as people think, one just needs to take profit and think at X% increase I’ve done well, now for the next.
there is no desperate need to get in at the perfect bottom and out at the all time high, if the market or asset goes up 50, 100, 200%, half of that profit is good enough.
Two years ago, in the housing bubble some people thought I was crazy (even in this forum) when I started selling my investment properties, and moved to shares. Yes I started selling too early but I also made great profit.
at some point when one feels they have done well, too many people are scared to move.
look at sars, h1n1, mers what does those virus teach us, it’s not end of the world but there will be a plunge in stock market, some short, some medium some long, than they all moved up.
This time around the same, there will be a dip and than a recovery. The dip might be small and few days only and a cure comes out. And the stocks start to ramp, you can always go back in, maybe lose ten percent upside, but if one catches the another 10%, its not that bad.
On the flip side this virus can tank the market for medium term and go down to 5,000 asx, the virus might still be going but it’s a great time to get back in, even if it goes down to 4000, because it will come back to 6,000 or 7,000
well that’s my philosophy in investments.
just look at most people in this very forum debating “should I buy GOLD” looking at a mountain of data that it will, and they also know after virus lead recession gold will go down, but will they sell
That's different to what I mean by the "sell high buy low" mantra. For example those calling for a market correction of 80% imply that the smart money will wait until that correction has unfolded and then buy at the bottom. It's impossible to make such a prediction of when the bottom comes in or when we've reached a top and it'll blow because no one has a crystal ball.
Taking profits and not begrudging others the opportunity of profiting on investments you've sold is sensible. And whilst it's not hard to take profits, it is hard and needs to be practised so that the investor can do so without emotion when the time calls for it. This also applies to sucking up losses.
Smartest thing Ive heard you say, if your ahead your ahead.
You're hearing it here first.
We all know that the next crash has been inevitable but not imminent.
I reckon that the fallout from the virus which has resulted in an about 5% loss of the stock prices, and possibly more to come, will give the market the opportunity to blame this partial crash on an unexpected event. As we move on from this event, there will be enough slack in the market to progress for another couple of years before GFC style conditions cause a major crash.
As to Gold and Silver, I think they will rise proportionally to the stock prices falling. However when the market steadies and starts rising will metals plateau or start to fall? I think there will be a drop and hopefully will steady to about half the recent increase.
We are quickly approaching the time to stop buying!
Another pummeling on Wall Street overnight... The market now down almost 8.4% since the all time highs just 2 weeks ago.
Another bad night tonight, and we’ll be sailing past the -10% correction mark!
I wonder how court jester's stocks are doing
Or dropping like a rock?
My reasoning tells me that if there is mass quarantining because of the carnivorous, will TV stocks go up because everyone stays at home? If so, will advertisers pay for ads if they have little to sell and fewer people out there buying?
Please reply in 50 words or less. Marks will be awarded for flattery.
Netflix etc have to benefit. But general concern will push many stocks lower even if there is an upside. I would say hold off for a week or two until things reach some clarity.
Streaming services and internet providers will go up?
Where is all the money going? People are obviously selling yet it doesn’t look like it's really moved anywhere. Crypto is falling also and gold and silver haven’t really done much over the last few days either, is everyone just holding cash atm waiting for the dust too settle?
my limited knowledge and experience in the markets could very well be leading me too miss something here so I’m keen to hear your thoughts.
I think it's going to T bills
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