Discussion in 'Currencies' started by tolly_67, May 17, 2014.
It is the reverse " are we there yet?" syndrome........"nearly there, nearly there"
o.k.....I need help here aleks.....
back me on the euro 115...
^^Pretty much this and US interest rate futures. Until everyone is convinced to jump on the S&P500 train because we are into all time high territory and interest rate futures will start moving towards another interest rate hike happening then dumb money will pile into the short jpy/euro, long stocks trade. Lets see what happens by mid year.
In the shorter term looks like euro wants to reach above some old highs at 1.15 and 1.17
RED ALERT WARNING: DOLLAR COLLAPSE
The worrying thing is, it was such a steep rise there is not much support on the way down if it breaks lower now.
Not trying to be funny, yes it looks thin on the way down on the weekly chart if this isn't a quick stop run, a level on the daily chart 89.50ish:
The time for the change is when it all looks lost. We are at that point right now. Make or break...........
Euro touched the 1.16 during the evening. Good enough for a top. Gold popped over the 1300 for a while, good enough for a top.
I am calling this one. After so many nearly there calls, I am going out on a limb and claim this to be the day the worm turned. U.S. dollar to move higher from here on.
Tea leaves are telling me there is still some upside left in Euro and Chf, what they haven't told me is how much upside to expect, waiting to see what they tell me on interest rate futures. Dare I say we make another attempt at this 1.17 level.
Pending more voodoo, will be keeping an eye around 1.120 to 1.1180 to buy euro and 0.9750 to 0.9770 to sell usd/chf.
We are being fed bullshit about the Brexit.....the visit from Obama stinks of desperation. All this talk of the 'stay' votes in front is codswallop.
I think this week will be the eye opener of how the Poms intend to vote. They beat back the Germans in June 1940 and this is the Battle of Britain all over again. The European Union is really Germany.
Just like Halleys Comet, it looks like it is coming around 76 years later. It will be the same result.
Oh sorry....after all that guff I meant to say the Euro is toast. You picked the peak at 1.16 ( Well done )......but I believe that an enormously fat lady is singing loud and strong on this one.
You are probably going to be right. I didn't think about it long enough.
The Euro buyers are going to get caught in a massive bull trap.
The big rush to the Euro but once the long term weakness becomes apparent.....down she goes.
I had a strong level of conviction on higher euro, technically as well as expecting a big move in the fed funds rate. The fed funds rate has been moving in the right direction but hasn't been a catalyst/driver of dollar weakness like I was expecting. The technicals on euro has deteriorated to the point where its best to be neutral at the moment.
Looking at the daily chart if anything it looks like this is early signs of bullish price action, also US long term bond yields are at record lows and could drag the dollar higher
Just broken the 100 mark......about 7 months later than I expected.
All upwards now.....especially once the talk of U.S. interest rate rises becomes common place.
Everyone seems happy.
Buy, buy, buy.!
Separate names with a comma.