Trying to argue with people who don't believe in the "collapse"

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Oct 27, 2019.

  1. Silver260

    Silver260 Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Yea, they always consider them fully drawn. Because, technically, you could walk out of the loan meeting and go spend the whole balance. If you see what I mean.
     
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  2. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Indeed. Sound like the bank manager didn't explain clearly how they view credit cards with available credit balances.
     
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  3. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This is correct.
     
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  4. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Credit cards are considered fully drawn when accessing the applicant for other loans or credit.

    This shouldn’t be an issue with people unless applying for a home loan or other major loans. A $20,000 limit card isn’t going to be detrimental in getting a home loan though it might affect the total amount of the loan.
     
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  5. l***g

    l***g Active Member Silver Stacker

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    better than being a country member!
     
  6. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I expect something similar. A tremendous downturn and a post-communism-style deep well in which potentially half of the world will sit for as long as 10-20 years. Or longer. Poverty, riots, balkanization (fragmentation of societies), parallel societies, theft, gangs and a countless attempts to hypercentralize the rogue masses that have slipped out of control... after that: POLICE STATES emerge.

    Indeed, I think the world (especially what we call "the west") will sadly look like the Ukraine or Bulgaria did for 2-3 decades post-communism (although, they were wrecks before...).

    It's great that you work in the construction industry, especially if you understand the technical stuff. It will be useful for a long time.

    Unlike the pseudo-professions nowadays (like economists, social media managers etc.)... although being and economist can help in finding great investments for safe haven.
     
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  7. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    It will be a lot worse later. The numb masses are still wasting money on iphones, fancy sneakers, smart watches and eating out in expensive restaurants...

    Imagine when they get stunned by the first waves of the crisis. Then they stop spending madly, especially if they start losing jobs and prices start rising.

    Even if inflation of currency doesn't happen, they would probably sit on piles of cash.

    DEFLATION / STAGFLATION
     
  8. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    So, they don't charge any "maintenance" fees? That's interesting.

    My bank keeps stealing various amount once in a while and I don't even know what for!

    Having any account nowadays costs more than keeping your money there. We're feeding the banks! In fact, we're like charity to the "poor" banks.
     
  9. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Don't buy anything on credit, don't buy a thing you don't need.

    Pay off your debt as soon as possible, if you have any.
     
  10. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    That’s such great advise. None the less I think many people thinking collapse is going to happen soon and will be for a long time might be disappointed.
    The US could have double the current debt they have now and the world would still go on. Sure the USD would be worth less but they would have kick the can along for quite while.
    I think Phil Anderson has it right and we won’t see a major recession for another 5 or 6 years. Unemployment is simply too low. Downturns take time. There is still a lot of money on the sidelines waiting for the next 2008. That will prop things up for a bit longer.
    Currently trade wars have barely scratched the surface.
    One has to look at history to see the pattern of major collapse. It’s morphology. The infill that occurs. Fall of Rome being the classic. Fall of the British empire - still in progress. Fall of France, Portugal, even China and now China is resurgent.
    A global collapse could occur if there was a new epidemic of incredible speed or a major asteroid hit or some other huge black swan. Silver will be useful for medical purposes but outside that in a catastrophic situation it will be the capability to personally survive that is truly valuable. Likelihood low but possible.
    Financial collapse as in global collapse would take more than 100 years with multiple ups and lower lows but it would have to be combined with other factors like food shortages (like a major disease in rice and corn) or epidemics.
    Just my two cents worth.
     
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  11. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    If you want to know what's coming, don't just look at Weimar Germany hyperinflation, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Argentina... it might be a good idea to study a bit about what happened in all those former commie states that went bust after the fall of communism and the fall of the Soviet Union.

    The EU-US twin collapse is a possibility, dragging down their spheres of influence into the mud.

    What did the fall of communism bring?

    Riots, ethnic conflicts, wars (Yugoslavia and the former Soviet parts), poverty, mass outflow of people seeking better lives in the west, massive inflation, high joblessness, high taxes, low salaries, low pensions, bankruptcies of banks "on the bandwagon", political turmoil and diversionary propaganda "on the bandwagon", economic chaos (macro- and micro-) because the planned Soviet-style economies have fallen apart.

    Obviously, the west differs culturally, socially, historically, economically... regardless how I look at it: it looks worse than the collapse of communism.
    No, communism wasn't a wonderful thing, it's that the west will fall from a lot higher.

    What's good to focus on are the opportunities. Many people got rich in Eastern Europe by profiting from the swap from communist-socialist madness to capitalism (or to what they thought is capitalism).

    What will these opportunities be this time? PM's maybe? Buying-up real estate? Natural resources (like drinking water, for example)? Recycling?
     
  12. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    So TresureHunter when is this global collapse going to happen?



    So trolled I could not help myself but respond.

    To your points.
    If i want to know whats coming.... Please. To presume that because I have a different point of view I am ill informed. Hmmm no comment.

    Weimar Germany - 1921-1923 hyper inflation. Firstly let's look at the background to this situation. Germany had just been defeated in the first world war and was forced to pay huge reparations to France and Belgium. Huge external (ie owed to other countries) debt.
    Venezuela - again owes huge debt in USD. Hasn't maintained their one source of income - oil (look how Iran has survived under similar sanctions and circumstances). Corruption is extensive. Not relate-able to global scenarios.
    Zimbabwe - well South Africa seems to be following this path but again I don't see a global situation here.
    Argentina - again debt in foreign currencies.

    Now to your point that I should study a bit. again Hmmm. Perestroika - a very interesting topic. Have you been to Russia. Beautiful country. Passionate people. Politics - well that's another conversation. My wife was there as a young adult during that time. It was a little chaotic in Moskva but life went on. You see people had been through many hardships in the preceding years. Recent sanctions have been taken as a badge of honor and only strengthen the general feeling about the west. Yes people don't enjoy the changes but I would say that Russia today is more resilient than most of the west, should things take a turn for the worse. I mean the siege of Leningrad is part of the Russian psyche. Overall though, these where short term effects and many of those countries are doing very well today.

    Yes your right a EU-US collapse could occur. Financial systems are highly intertwined and leveraged. But again look at the 2008 situation - a downturn but things kind of returned to normal. Yes much bigger debts but these are mostly internal funding debts. They owe that debt to them selves. Of course there is reduced value in the currencies but this isn't hyperinflation territory.

    The west is culturally similar to the eastern European people but so very different psychologically in my view. Look at the debt levels across eastern Europe. I bet they are mostly quite modest in terms of foreign currency debt. Russia's debt is certainly very low in comparison.

    Real estate values in the west are out of control and will at some point come back to lower levels. The capability to pay those loans will have to reduce before that return to lower values will happen. That has to mean lower wages (currently happening very slowly) or unemployment has to go up to more than say 8% and probably more than 10% for a real downturn.

    So again I don't see the elements of a global collapse in the short term (less than 5 years away) nor do I see the factors that would bring about a long term downturn that meant a global depression more than 2-3 years. Let me be clear a 2-3 depression would be painful for many of the poorer/non-privileged people of the world but as in the great depression post 1929 to before the second world war - if you weren't one of the 25-30% unemployed you enjoyed much lower prices and nice opportunities.

    Again talking about longer term - look at Germany after the first world war and after the Weimar Germany. Hitler rebuilt the economy to such a powerful place - they had a Guns or Butter choice and certainly made the wrong choice - at least Hitler did. But their economy rebuilt even after two world wars and became strong.
    Venezuela - largest oil reserves in the world they say. Despite climate change and the desire to move away from fossil fuels - they are sitting on a black gold mine.
    Zimbabwe - used to be the food basket of Africa. South Africa and also many resources. Politics and social cohesion will determine the length of their downfall. Again not currently a global issue.
    Argentina. As with number of south american countries they will go up and down with their politics. South America is underrated as a possible power house in the world. Political cohesion across the region (left or right doesn't matter) will bring surprising results. Watch this space imho. I think it will be hilarious when we see US citizens trying to go south in the future - looking for better opportunities. But this is quite some way off yet - Decades.

    So again imho there is no long term global collapse around the corner excepting in the situations I outlined of a major black swan event that is way outside humanities control.

    These points are of course just my interpretation of the facts as I see them.

    Looking forward to the countering views to these points or other views from which I could learn a new perspective.
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2019
  13. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Also for those who are against credit cards.

    Consider that in most online stores, communications, utilities, supermarkets, franchises and small shops that do not have a surcharge on credit cards, 1% to 2% of you payment is subsiding point hackers.

    No doubt bad for people with no impulse control but for everyone else, not using a CC is paramount to getting sucker punched legally every time you pay cash.
     
  14. Silver260

    Silver260 Active Member Silver Stacker

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    More than happy to get a punch or two :D. Remember, no such thing as a free lunch.

    Edit : Not that this, linked story, has anything to do with why I don't use one.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/03/19/wesfarmers-flybuys-coles/
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2019
  15. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    what you are missing is, that ALL programs are geared toward people with weak impulse control or at best at people with vanity.

    In any program there will be ten percent who are winners and 90% losers but the ultimate losers would be those that could have got many hundred thousands of dollars of travel for free but decided not too and subsidise someone else.
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2019
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  16. Silver260

    Silver260 Active Member Silver Stacker

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    No, I didn't miss your point. I'm well aware that the cost of these programs has already been factored into the price of the goods / services.

    If anything, I should be upset that people like yourself, are inflating the cost of my groceries..........;)
     
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  17. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If ya can't beat 'em..... join 'em. ;)
     
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  18. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Mainstream news is promoting the "crisis" by feeding us constantly with it. And now the masses are starting to think >>> then act (will affect spending/saving) >>> the crisis will happen due to hysteria maybe (news, not necessarily because of some rational factors).
    Normally in the news they say "the crisis will be like the 2008 crisis", they never say it's going to be worse.

    I've started watching the simpler things rather than get tangled up in analyzing markets, prices and the Fed too much:
    - food price increases
    - food scarcity: once in a while certain products disappear from the shelves and get replaced slowly
    - currency exchange rates
    - the price of gold and silver
    - the official interest rates
    - joblessness rates
    - fees and interests charged by the banks
    - real estate prices & news about the trends
    - automotive industry: production, sales, employment (some factories laying people off)

    If you watch these only, you will see the worsening situation. It is worse than a year ago and it will get even worse.

    Even if we don't know exactly when the crisis will slam us, it sure feels closer than in 2011 or 2012.

    I believe a single thing can "ignite" it (humble opinion): a real estate crisis in one country or bank runs/bank crisis (due to high fees and small/negative interest rates) and will propagate to other areas of the economy, then to other countries.
     
  19. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    Which here in Australia amounted to very little really for most people. I doubt the thought of that happening again is going to scare anyone here.
     
  20. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Interesting setup that Australia has. No major recession for years. People are complacent. Means people take bigger risks. However our banking (as bad as it is) is way more regulated than many other countries.
    It will be very interesting to see how the next decade progresses.
     
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