Tracking 10y bond yield and Fed assets

I'll update this every Friday.

 

10Y bond yields have been steadily ticking up since the beginning of Feb. I don't think this is what Bessent and Trump had in mind. I have read on X that Bessent is interested in gaining more control over Fed policy - I haven't corroborated that to determine if it was true. There's 2 stumbling blocks to the Trump admin's plans, the first is Fed independence but the second and more influential I think is the lack of clarity coming out of the White House. Trump has a penchant for floating marketing balloons and I don't think this is what markets need or want to hear. I could be wrong though and the new admin may have a clear and coherent plan. We'll find out before the year ends.



The Fed balance sheet is still winding down.

 

10Y mimicking gold's move except in reverse:

 

This is all over the news.

 

This probably nothing, but we'll watch it anyway.

 

Remaining stubborn:

 

Dixie and oil at multi-year lows so something is working for Trump.

 

Has QT finished?

 

Nope, still winding down:

 

Still lower than roughly when Trump entered the Oval orifice ...

 

Assets:

 

10 yr:

 

Another week, another set of of data around yields creating alarm. S+P closing in on 6000 again though, that's 4 straight weeks of rises and some 1000 points higher than the lows in April when the world was ending.

 

There's lots of noise out there speculating that The Fed has openly begun QE, finished QT or is engaging in QE in the shadows. Read those posts but don't listen to them. Just look at the data.

 

And I really don't know what the point of watching this is anymore: