AUD40 easy. USD40 is coming up also. With a rise this strong a correction could come at any time... But as I've been saying throughout this thread the retracements could be small because so many have been caught short. Short covering (paper shorts being forced to buy to get out of their losing positions) is combining with fresh purchases. We are used to seeing knock downs of rising prices but these knock downs are different. Generally they involve the market trying to pushing prices down to hit stops. Execution of the stop orders then create the spike down. As this is a short squeeze a) it's quite dangerous (could be very expensive) to try to push prices down. You become the seller to the market buying pressure. b) When trying to run stops you must leverage your sell orders off natural resistance levels. There are very few of these left on the chart maybe the next on is at USD35.20 or so. So I'm not counting on a sell-off. If there is one I'll be buying as will everyone else. Don't wait so long for good silver prices and then get out too quickly.
$41.00 AUD breached. If Silver closes for the weekend at these prices without a takedown I will be surprised.
I sold half my PAAS at $35.5 on 20th July, one of the biggest listed primary silver miner. Silver was $19 when I sold. Today, silver is $28, but PAAS $38 and the dollar has weakened slightly. Silver stocks might actually be a leading indicator for physical silver.
When I sold PAAS, I was thinking whether to sell my SLV which I bought on the 18th March. JPM is the custodian for SLV. They have made many bullish comments on gold prices and yet is very quiet on silver. I wonder why?
Can you please elaborate further on this? I would like more insight on your thinking as this is a topic I've been pondering on for quite some time. Thanks
there is something else just cross me, bit difficult to try and explain. but back to the old idea, there are physical market when people are not glue to the screen stocks market when insider lead first and now we have HFT and then there is faster pace futures leverage trading with HFT, leverage and time limit - expiry and insiders with parties and control all over the orders flows etc so they all move at the same time, just with different pace, people who participates are never similar...but they never got in 3 all at once, or jump from one to another after one is closed then hope on the other. there are permanent residents in each markets, so there are specialist who make their living on each markets, so their customer base are also not the same people. its as simple, there are opportunities everywhere, but it is not possible to get twin or triplets or all of them at the same time, you are supper lucky to get a few of them in your live. the logic is, when your money is tied in one place, its not possible to deploy them in another place, there is a need to sleep there is currencies markets, so it is not possible to beat them all with so little accuracy and resources its possible to borrow against your bonds, then stacks them on stocks and re-borrow to finance the futures trading and involved in currencies but the cards will fall in matters of days if not hours
Of course heading back to AUD35 could happen, but when a move like this happens after such a long period of sideways and with good fundamentals behind it the retracements are usually fairy small. My bet is we head higher.
Continuing my running weekly price change. Remember this is USD not Australian dollar. This is a short squeeze but the reasoning for the demand that is causing the squeeze is as I set out in my first post. Eventually there will be fewer shorts to squeeze and we will get a retracement but strong fundamentals for silver's rise remains. Getting out on the first retracements would be a mistake in my opinion. Last week was a $5 gain week. Silver is easily capable of rising to USD40 now. June 23 approx 11am $17.86 June 30 approx 9am $17.86 July 7 approx 9am $18.30 July 14 approx 9am $19.11 July 21 approx 9am $19.91 July 28approx 9am $25.36 Aug 4 approx 9am $24.23 Aug 11 approx 8am $29.13
@STKR Maybe times are different Two current and one former JPMorgan precious metals traders are arrested by the FBI for 'manipulating the market and sending thousands spoofing orders' Michael Nowak and Gregg Smith were placed on leave from JPMorgan Chase Both were arrested and charged with participating in the racketeering conspiracy that allegedly spanned over eight years, authorities said on Monday Christopher Jordan, 47, who left company in 2009, was also charged in the case Officials said Jordan was also involved in the racketeering scheme All three have been accused of spoofing, which involves placing bids to buy or offers to sell contracts with the intent to cancel them before execution By DAILYMAIL.COM REPORTER and REUTERS PUBLISHED: 23:13 AEST, 16 September 2019 | UPDATED: 10:48 AEST, 17 September 2019 Two current and one former JPMorgan Chase employees have been arrested and charged by the FBI for their alleged participation in a racketeering conspiracy in connection with the manipulation of the markets for precious metals. Michael Nowak, 45, and Gregg Smith, 55, are on leave, making them the third and fourth JPMorgan employees to be connected to the criminal investigation, which has resulted in guilty pleas from two former JPMorgan metals traders. Christopher Jordan, 47, who left the company in 2009, was an executive director and trader on JPMorgan's precious metals desk in New York. All three were arrested as part of a spoofing investigation. Spoofing involves placing bids to buy or offers to sell contracts with the intent to cancel them before execution. By creating an illusion of demand, spoofers can influence prices to benefit their market positions. +2 Two current and one former JPMorgan Chase (file image) employees have been arrested and charged by the FBI for their alleged participation in a racketeering conspiracy in connection with the manipulation of the markets for precious metals 'The defendants and others allegedly engaged in a massive, multi-year scheme to manipulate the market for precious metals futures contracts and defraud market participants,' said Assistant Attorney General Brian A. Benczkowski. Authorities said the alleged criminal activity spanned over eight years and involved thousands of unlawful trading sequences. Nowak is a managing director and global head of base and precious metals trading in New York for the bank, according to his LinkedIn profile. According to the source, Nowak was placed on leave around late August. Smith was an executive director and trader on JPMorgan's precious metals desk in New York. Authorities said in the thousands of sequences, the employees 'placed deceptive orders for gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc and Commodity Exchange Inc, which are commodities exchanges operated by CME Group Inc'. Share 'This false and misleading information was intended to, and at times did, trick other market participants into reacting to the apparent change and imbalance in supply and demand by buying and selling precious metals futures contracts at quantities, prices and times that they otherwise likely would not have traded', the indictment alleges. JPMorgan, one of the largest gold trading banks in the world, said in an August regulatory filing it is 'responding to and cooperating with' investigations by various authorities, including the Department of Justice, relating to trading practices in the metals markets. There has been a surge in spoofing-related prosecutions in recent years. Bank of America Corp's Merrill Lynch commodities unit, for example, paid $25million in July to resolve actions by the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission and Department of Justice for precious metals spoofing trades between 2008 and 2014. The Department of Justice already secured guilty pleas from two former JPMorgan metals traders, Christiaan Trunz and John Edmonds. Authorities said in the thousands of sequences, the employees 'placed deceptive orders for gold (file image), silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc and Commodity Exchange Inc The announcement of their pleas, in August 2019 and October 2018, respectively, indicated that they had collaborated on spoofing with their supervisors, who were not named. Trunz placed 'thousands' of orders he did not plan to execute for gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts between 2007 and 2016, and had learned to spoof from more senior traders, the Department of Justice said in August, adding that he was cooperating with 'the ongoing investigation'. Nowak and another former JPMorgan trader, Robert Gottlieb, are named as defendants in at least one other civil suit related to metals spoofing at JPMorgan. A December 2018 class action complaint, for example, said that Edmonds, Nowak, Gottlieb and others made hundreds of spoof orders or more as 'part of a conspiracy' with the bank and other internal traders. An attorney for Gottlieb did not respond to a request for comment. Koch Industries Inc, Gottlieb's last known employer, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. JPMorgan has also been sued separately by a group of investors, who said they lost money as a result of the bank spoofing its trades. In one of the lawsuits brought against the bank by Daniel Shak, a metals trader, Shak estimated he suffered immediate losses of around $25million after he was forced to liquidate his position as a result of JPMorgan's market manipulation, a court document showed. The civil suits against JPMorgan have been stayed pending the Department of Justice probe. Attorneys for Nowak did not respond to a request for comment. A call to Smith's number at the bank was answered by an employee at the metals desk who directed questions to the bank's public relations department. A spokesman for the Department of Justice declined to comment. All three defendants were charged with one count of conspiracy to conduct the affairs of an enterprise involved in interstate or foreign commerce through a pattern of racketeering activity; one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud affecting a financial institution, bank fraud, commodities fraud, price manipulation and spoofing; one count of bank fraud and one count of wire fraud affecting a financial institution. In addition, Smith and Nowak were each charged with one count of attempted price manipulation, one count of commodities fraud and one count of spoofing.
Yup thats well and truly out in the open. Talking about price manipulation 10 years ago put you in the conspiracy nutter basket lol.
There is definitely manipulation. 1 it is by individual traders who slip through the compliance and legal oversight of the banks. 2.its always short term trades otherwise it would be easily caught. 3. As in all the cases listed above it is in both directions up and down. There is no long term or short term institutional, manipulation in one direction (or even 2 directions) of the entire market by any institution. These institutions Make money from volatility in both direction and they are working internally to stop rogue traders. @REDBACK , I’m not saying you are doing this , but to conflate spoofing with institutionalised long term manipulation of markets in one direction does bring out the conspiracy theorist.
Sold off the rest of my miners and SLV. It has been a great ride since March. Will pm correct? I don't know, but if it does, load up on miner and SLV again.
