The value of diversification

Discussion in 'Digital Currencies' started by mmm....shiney!, May 19, 2018.

  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Moving this spreadsheet from another thread.

    It's been a tough few months for crypto investors, there are some shining lights but you'd be hard pressed to pick a single crypto and feel confident it will move against the market sentiment.

    MIOTA is not rewarding its investors with anything of late, up 30% over the past 60 days but it's given back most of those gains in the last 2 weeks. I'm of the opinion that like XRP, it's a FOMO coin. It will probably only come into its own when the bull bounces back.

    THETA is holding its own in these uncertain times, up over 50% in the same period.

    Interestingly shiney!'s Basket and BTC are performing about the same. Does this mean BTC is a solid safe haven investment in the crypto world and that it's a waste of timing designing a basket and you'd be better off just buying BTC? LOL

    I'm of the opinion though that a basket offers the best of both worlds, some protection from market panic with the potential for more upside.

    But then it all depends upon your goals doesn't it?

    Screen Shot 2018-05-20 at 8.03.26 am.png
     
  2. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    The market seems to have changed in the last several months in terms individual cryptos holding or doing well when the market is dropping. It used to (at least seemed that way to me) that when the market dropped big time, every crypto dropped fairly evenly, they all tracked down. But now there seems to be more standouts that do well and buck the trend in every drop. But it seems to be a different bunch of cryptos every time.
    Sign of a more mature and nuanced market than when they all just tracked down together?

    Bull runs don't seem to have changed though, everything goes up.
     
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  3. DrSilver

    DrSilver Member

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    An interesting question you pose Shiney. In general things overall seem move in a general direction up or down based on various news/developments largely led by BTC, but as you pointed out others keep trucking along nicely when most aren't. Will BTC as the original and most established crypto hold its value, or will newer competing currencies knock it off its perch?
    Certainly there are developments in the crypto space with some real potential to change the economic system as we know it
    I like EOS, OMG, DCR, XLM, Ox, WTC, ICX, ZIL myself. Will see how they fare. DCR has done incredibly well during the most recent meltdown.
    If the you tubers are right and the institutional money starts flowing in we may see a number of projects like these take off.
    I think BTC's convertibility into other assets like fiat or PM's will mean it will likely have its place for some time. But given its market share if it were to double in price would need the overall market cap to increase dramatically. There's probably a few more opportunities with the more speculative coins, but they are clearly more high risk and picking the right ones is tricky.
     
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  4. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Or maybe a market with an absence of clear direction?

    We all understand that blockchain technology is the big thing, but the big money is not yet in it. Regulation is unfortunately coming. But with regulation comes institutional investors bringing with them multiples of what mums and dads can spend.

    If that’s the case, now is still a fantastic opportunity to get exposed to cryptos.

    So not so much a more mature market but a market in hiatus possibly?

    But then I am an optimist. :D
     
  5. DrSilver

    DrSilver Member

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    Massive opportunities for sure, so many large organisations are taking notice. The CFO of Commonwealth bank left to take up a position with EOS, I think they are starting to take notice of the incredible developments taking place.
    The middle class is struggling to get by, seeing so much bracket creep in terms of rates, taxation and ever increasing bank fees and seeking alternatives. When they wake up in larger numbers they will seek contrarian investments and alternatives.
    The applications for consensus/distributed ledger technologies really have the ability to change so many things we do that are time consuming and wasteful and will be fascinating to see which ones really do well in the long rung, backing the right projects could pay off hugely.
     
  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The diversified portfolio has taken a massive hit, with 3 of the holdings showing upwards of 40% declines in price. If not for the smaller losses in the exchange coin BNB and the solid returns from THETA, it would probably be matching IOTA's 36% fall in value since the challenge began, mind you it put on a 16% increase in 24H. Probably goes to show one of the values of diversifying ie reducing risk.

    Once again BTC's price has shown less drastic fluctuation when compared to the other currencies.

    Screen Shot 2018-05-30 at 8.27.12 am.png

    I think the date is wrong, should have been 29 May. I didn’t know what day of the week it was. LOL
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2018
  7. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    A nice little run by THETA in the last 24hrs, reminiscent of December 2017, up in the past 24hours by 38% to USD 0.28, that’s about a 60% ROI since Bullion Baron first proposed the pissing contest. Up 140% in the past 60 days, good returns considering the bear market.

    An investor would have two choices, sell a portion/entire holdings or HODL. Depends upon the goal.

    I’m a HODLer of THETA, but if it gets much higher I’m tempted to sell 25% and then buy back in on the inevitable drop. What to do, what to do?

    Screen Shot 2018-05-31 at 11.36.46 am.png
     
  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    THETA is a long term hold for me. However, just as I am prepared to get rid of poor performing assets eg I sold a fair portion of my silver at a loss, I know I should collect profits on the way. I really should sell a portion and buy back in at a later date as I did with MCO a few weeks ago. I just don't like to rid myself of any as my timeframe is also not measured in weeks with this particular coin.

    There are plenty of others I've bought and sold over the space of a few days, some for a profit, some for a loss as my timeframe really depends upon my goals and my targets but THETA was not bought with that in mind as I believe in the project. Something like XRP for example I don't, it was bought as a hedge to protect my interests from the threats of decentralisation and sound money - my target there is to reach a certain price point then sell the lot.
     
  9. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This is my portfolio, tell me which ones are the "bunch of shitcoins" and why: XRP, ETH, POLY, NEO, ADA, MCO, NAV, BNB, OMG, AION and THETA. I also have Increment which is at the ICO stage so they haven’t been distributed yet. Oh, and CLO which is a shitcoin but I got it for nothing and can only sell it on YOBIT (that’s if I could get it out of my ether wallet to send there in the first place), and it’s worth next to nothing.

    XRP’s target is a price point, same with Ethereum. NEO, ADA, NAV and OMG are long term holds I’ll keep to stake and earn passive income. I only just got into AION, I’m waiting to see what happens over the next 12 months with their Valence project to form some long term strategy. BNB reduces my fees on trading so it’s kind of like staking. MCO is an attempt to secure cheap credit AND purchase stuff with cryptos shhhhhhhh I don’t know how successful that will be. Nothing illegal of course so don’t jump to any Statist conclusions. POLY is an interesting one, won’t know how that’s going to end up until all this securities/regulation stuff is organised and THETA at this stage is my 30 bagger lol.

    Others on my horizon are ZIL, NEX and Atonomi, when the funds are available that is. Can probably buy them using my profits from THETA!!!!!! Hows that IOTA going?LMFAO.
     
  10. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You seem to have trouble understanding my request.

    I’m not asking you to validate my choices. I’m quite happy with the ones I’ve chosen. I’m asking you to validate your opinion of them as shitcoins so that we can get some value out of this discussion. As of this stage your opinion is not justified, therefore it adds no value.
     
  11. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I thought so. You really don’t know what you’re talking about. God you’re so mainstream.
     
  12. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I make no claims to having any great insight into cryptos, I'm an absolute amateur. I merely repeat information I have read from others, maybe for the benefit of others. The only way we learn on this forum is by posting and getting feedback. To insinuate that anyone who doesn't know much about a topic shouldn't post much is the height of impudence.

    As far as investing goes, Bullion Baron's Pissing Contest is intended to be an ongoing demonstration in seeing whether exposure to multiple currencies/strategies reduces risk and enhances reward compared to just holding Bitcoin or a single Alt-coin in a portfolio. Everything else you post about my intentions, beliefs, investments outside of crypto, state-of-mind, height, ego, ID , golf game, diet, hairstyle, marriage, dog or whatever your next target will be is just froth. If you don't like challenges, don't start them in the first place. And if you're going to make rash claims, at least have the decency and honour to back them up.

    I really don't care that THETA is outperforming IOTA in the short term, and probably neither do you. THETA is helping my personal portfolio ride out a trough, which is the exact purpose of a diversified portfolio, no matter what asset you're talking about, whether it be stocks, RE or whatever. It's a side issue to my real interest in this thread, examining alternative strategies. In the future, I'll probably "theoretically" invest some of the profits from shiney's basket in the other coins I've mentioned and see what sort of results we get. It's a game BB, and you wanted to play it.

    I envisage Bullion Baron's Pissing Contest to be an ongoing examination of 4 alternative investment strategies:

    1. your strategy of holding just one altcoin, in this case IOTA.
    2. just holding Bitcoin.
    3. holding a diversified portfolio without managing it ie just keeping the original coins eg shiney's basket.
    4. actively taking profits and reinvesting them back by adding more assets in the future eg a continually evolving shiney's basket.

    So far we're on the road with points 1, 2 and 3.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2018
  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You're embarrassing yourself BB.

    Firstly, you haven't justified why any of them are shitcoins. You just evaded that, citing insufficient time. However in the time you posted 4 bits of dribble, you could have posted just once justifying your beliefs, and the world have been a better place for it. I'll point out too in case you aren't using the terminology correctly, the accepted definition of a shitcoin is one that's value is going to "0", just in case you are going to post something meaningful about it.

    Secondly, as I'm an acknowledged crypto-coin amateur (who isn't on this forum/general wider community?) and especially as someone without an IT background, I read and listen to a variety of opinion. So yes! to answer your question. Personalities on YT (which you seem to have an enormous issue with), Twitter, Telegram, Discord, online blogs, websites, even personalities on Silver Stackers or whatever other sources I come across. I then do the usual thing and go to the whitepapers/roadmaps etc and try to make my own judgments about the coins to the best of my ability using the knowledge I have available. I then go back and consult those same sources with a bit more knowledge about the whitepapers etc under my belt. I then make a decision. I posted a very informative article about how to select an asset for a portfolio about a month back sourced from a YT account - you obviously missed it. I can post it again if you want. All you have to do is ask. I stand by my decisions in selecting the assets I have and I'm sure many would agree with them, though, there would be some disagreement with some eg XRP.

    Now if you want to talk about the topic at hand, which is diversification go ahead. If you want to explain why you think BNB or ADA or NAV etc are shitcoins, then I'm sure everyone here is all ears as those assets would form part of the portfolios of hundreds of thousands of crypto holders across the world. If you want to talk about how the pissing contest you started is going, then I'd say less people are interested, but again I'm all ears. By the way, it's not going well for you so far just quietly (THETA up over $1400, IOTA down over $900, that's a difference of $2500 in just 4 weeks!!!!). :p If you want to talk about taking profits, cutting losses, opportunity cost, portfolio management or anything else intelligent then the invitation is also there. Hey, I'll even entertain your mainstream Statist notions in any of the threads in the Markets and Economies sub-forum too if you like on other topics that aren't crypto related, so long as they aren't the usual fallacious nonsense I've seen expressed before.

    But in the meantime, I'll do an update on Bullion Baron's Pissing Contest next Monday or Tuesday with or without your intelligent input. Some here may get some value from it, I hope so and even more so in the coming months as I introduce other ideas. Some may even find it entertaining. And you'll continue to be able to see how IOTA is going against the coin you asked me to name, which marked the beginning of your persistent trolling efforts. :)
     
  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Probably only one point you raise requires an answer on my part by way of clarification in regards to the topic of this thread:

    You notice in the quote of mine I said may contain BTC, ETH, EOS, NANO, XMR, BNB, ZIL, POWR and MINTS.

    Now when you proposed the pissing contest, your suggestion was to name one coin and we could check back up on it at at some later point in time. After I made my selection (THETA) I thought it would also be a good idea to include a basket of currencies, so I chose some of the ones I own as it would make it more meaningful to me. Out of my suggestions above (which were made off-the-top of my head) for a diversified portfolio that covers a number of differing styles of cryptos that are available on exchanges, I only own BNB and ETH and Increment is not yet available. So I substituted some others in. I left ETH out as it doesn’t form part of my personal holdings as it’s in my SMSF. I also thought it would be a good idea to add BTC so we could compare how it performed individually, especially as a hedge in the market. But I’ve said all this stuff before so you’re really just wasting bandwidth.

    Now I’d really like to concentrate on this thread in an honest manner instead of rehashing stuff from the IOTA thread and psychoanalysing my apparent shortcomings. So I’d like to read your justification for claiming the coins in shiney’s basket are shitcoins.

    And in the meantime I’ll keep updating Bullion Baron’s Pissing Contest over time.

    Edit to add: @Bullion Baron, that’s 5 by the way. :p
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2018
  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Lol, is anyone else reading this dribble? FK we’re juvenile. Hahahaha.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2018
  16. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Aaah, you think THETA is a shitcoin. Your justification for calling THETA a shitcoin is that it simply is a network for transferring value in exchange for serving videos. The goal is not to transfer tokens but to enhance usability and speed by decentralising computer power. The incentive for market players in the THETA network to speed up the transfer of information in video formats is the THETA token.

    As a side note there will be a place in the future for assets that simply transfer value eg BTC, LTC etc, THETA though is not one of them.

    And furthermore, you're being disingenuous by stating there is no long term future for the network when you yourself have said you have no time frame for your investment:

    So you don't have an investment timeframe of weeks, you don't have an investment timeframe of months and you don't have an investment timeframe of years but you judge other people's choices by those very time frames you refuse to acknowledge exist in your own portfolio management practices? A concept that is a key component in planning a portfolio.

    Anyway, I'm tiring of the slanging.

    That's not a bad idea except that those two index funds have just taken the top 20 or 30 coins by market cap with no thought to any FA eg Verge and why would you have Tether in your long term portfolio? You might as well just keep money in the bank. And, you'll notice that there are a number of my shitcoins in both of those portfolios as well. o_O

    Therefore I'll pass on your idea. As this project has to have meaning for me I'll stick to a portfolio that is easily managed based upon FA, rather than one based solely on MC and adjusted algorithmically and one that would require a lot of work in maintaining if one was to go alone on this track. Alternatively, if one didn't want to attempt to do the adjustments themselves required in tracking the top 30 assets, there is always the option of a regulated cryptocurrency fund. Which requires an ongoing management fee of 0.99% and an initial investment of USD100 000 or USD 10 000 to qualified investors https://thecryptosfund.com/. Which really defeats the whole idea of cryptocurrencies in the first place in my humble opinion.

    If anyone wishes to track the performance of those indices they can always look them up, I won't burden myself with the extra work in reproducing information that is already available. I want to show that it is possible to do it yourself with no ongoing fees or minimum investment. But thanks for the suggestion anyway. Alternatively you could provide the update for us each time I post my project update, I'm everyone here would get value from that.
     
  17. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Incentivising participation doesn't provide any guarantee of success, but it does a better job of it in the absence of an incentive. You only have to compare the results of your Statist ideologies with my free-market ones to see which is voluntarily adopted and which enhances value the best.

    At least you're putting some effort now into justifying your earlier statement, even if you're condescending nature means you've partly leaned on the shoulders of a strawman. I don't know enough about Dapps but one of the aims of the developers is to enable Dapps to be built on the platform.

    What about MCO, ADA, NEO, OMG, BNB? These are the other coins in shiney's Portfolio which you assert are also shitcoins. And by the way, thanks to your inspiration shiney's Portfolio shall now henceforth be known as Shitcoin Portfolio.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    My project is an exploration into determining whether the common man, with little capital and no IT expertise can. A big stumbling block in traditional markets are the large barriers to entry and reliance upon third parties.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2018
  19. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Is that 6 or 7 now?

    Oh well, you’ve made it clear many times you have no genuine interest in a rational discussion.

    Keep trolling B.B. - I’ll keep updating your pissing contest regardless. This is my last reply to you in this thread so you’ll have to look elsewhere for online companionship.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2018
  20. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Phew! Shitcoin portfolio finally doing better than just holding BTC. :oops:

    Screen Shot 2018-06-04 at 12.20.12 pm.png
     

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