More bad news for the AUD. Unprecedented momentum in the advance of the USD. Growing confidence in the US economy. Declining confidence in the Australian economy. ...
Veeerry interesting. In a week or so the USD will approach a very strong, long term, downtrending resistance line. It will be the 4th go at this line in 9 years. Reluctantly I must admit I've seen somewhere that the 4th touch at resistance is often the breakthrough one. Against this - as the aussie chartist says - it has been rallying for an unusual number of consecutive weeks, so intuition suggests it will be pretty winded as it reaches the rail. A pullback of the USD would be the break gold and silver holders are hoping for before $1180 gold cracks. Notice too that the weekly momentum indicator is at 'overbought' level, adding significantly to the chances of a pullback imo. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43-aJsEegFc[/youtube]
yep I sometimes feel like we are living in the twilight zone the assets at record highs are the stocks of the world's biggest debtor nation and the houses of countries with enormous expanses of vacant land the real economy has moved from the west to the east but the 'traders' haven't realised yet they actually believe the US can keep increasing their debt forever with no impact or at least they think they will get out in time when the impact does finally come reality will eventually assert itself - nobody knows when, but it will
The US can easily bounce back within a few years (but doesn't necessarily mean they will). Many of the EU countries however? The Chinese authorities still seem intent on shooting themselves in the head for short term politics.
How is it that US indicating they might lift their rates has a negative impact on the AUD, when our cash rate is already 10x what they are currently at?
Not sure if this is correct. My view of the Chinese, is that they view national policy and events in generational terms.
'Bearish Engulfing' weekly candle shaping up on the USD making a continuation of the pullback likely. If we get a decent pullback without the USD reaching the rail of the multi-year triangle pattern you'd have to count that as a positive. See the above video analysing the situation a week ago. Amazing how this has happened just as gold itself got near the 1180 critical level. I've got the feeling of being snatched from the path of a train at the moment. one year weekly USD Index
:lol: No, they're just as enmeshed in short term politics as any other group of politicians. The facade is simply that - built on propaganda. Deep structural reform is needed in China but until the politics and individuals line up, it ain't happening.
I don't get it. I've been wondering why the USD Index ($USD or DXY) pulling back from a multi-year strong downtrend resistance line isn't getting more airplay anywhere. So I started looking for long term charts of the USD and each one comes up showing the USD as having fully broken above its downtrend resistance, None show the situation in the video above where it has yet to reach the line. It's quite bizarre. I'm still looking around the web, but any ideas here? A USD pullback is quite critical to the near term prospects for gold/silver, and apparently I've been taking false reassurance from it. A couple of places i've looked: http://www.barchart.com/charts/stocks/$DXY http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/charts
finicky, it all depends upon your time frame. The USD has broken out of the multi year trading range to the upside. I believe the next significant resistance is 89-90. There was a smaller resistance area around the recent top and it looks like we pulled back and successfully tested 85. Not sure where we are going in the short term, but I have kept my pm hedges.
Well the time frame he's using in the USD chart video posted above is 20 year weekly. However the downtrending resistance line he's marked in red is about 9 years old it looks. It's that to which I'm drawing attention, not any range. It is the upper edge of a large multi year triangle. It has 3 touches and was not far off its 4th touch at Oct 4 according to the video, but this is not what I get from any other chart I can find. Everything else is showing the line has been fully passed, implying a breakout from a large triangle, implying very bullish prospect for usd, implying return of trouble for gold!
Should be interesting to see how the higher US dollar impacts 3rd quarter corporate earnings in the US. That could see your pullback but it's only just really started to take off so it may take until January when 4th quarter earnings are reported to show a real impact.
