Discussion in 'Silver' started by ounces, Nov 30, 2013.
Where did this term come from(Black Swan Event) come from and what does it mean.
Came from a book about 10 years ago.
It means "totally unexpected and unforeseen event".
Back in the 17th century, all the Europeans took it as fact that swans could only be white. That's because in their known experience, they had only ever seen white swans.
Then, when the Dutch discovered Western Australia, they also discovered black swans in the rivers there.
So the existing paradigm was shifted by a completely unexpected event.
In finance, a black swan event is something that disrupts the markets that no one had predicted and there had been no past precedent that could have warned them.
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
Yep, this term became ever more popularised since the publication of Taleb's book, now in its 2nd ed.
The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility
-- Nassim Nicholas Taleb
In fact, I'm hearing increased chatter of such an event (ie. increasing probability) by some of the notable Gold/Silver experts, and which I believe to be true.
The *What*... i've no idea, but the *When* may be closer then we think...
Is that Bogie as your avatar? Very nice. Who is it by?
I would define a financial one as something that some didn't predict / warned for, because their profit needed that surprise haha.
THEIR BLAH BLAH:
At the same time of this 2013 price prediction, they started selling like lemmings haha.
Afterwards, various articles appeared, wherein was stated that a few large fund holders dumped/crippled their gold positions.
They needed willing buyers, and that LBMA price prediction certainly helped them.
'Black swan event', in finance.
So, a black swan financial event might look like a chance discovery of 50 million tons of easily accessible gold ore in the middle of Colorado or something like that?
That would be fun.
All those with piles gold, including central banks.
price down to $0.01 an ounce.
Who would care most?
CB's wouldn't be worried too much I think because CB's, unlike stackers like those members in this forum, can legally steal a country population's wealth in a number of other ways. Stackers will simply be suffering the massive loss.
Or a surprise nuclear attack on Iran by Israel, dirty bomb attack in New York, derivative market implodes etc
Care to elaborate please.
Notable gold/silver experts?
From what I've seen during my silver time, those 'experts' were advising to buy after they bought, then advising to sell after they sold.
See the example case I gave some posts ago here. How ETF gold stocks started to drop big, due to some big fund managers with large gold positions (I believe those are named 'experts') at the same time the LBMA experts forecasted a 2013 $17xx average gold price.
Rather notable in their expertise to do the opposite of what they suggest others.
No, it's not Bogart - it's Albert Camus.
I found the image in a Google search and really liked it from a Deviantart artist called "MrMusX".
another black swan events near you
ignoring the covid19 by people
It appears many black swans this year but if you look carefully, all are linked, one causes the other, so not so black after all.
1. corona virus
2. reduced carbon emission
3. hot summer and crazy summer storms
4. megafloods and land slides
5. fault lines disturbed?
non of them are blackswan event, black swan is not something you expect to happen
virus pandemic movies all over the place, that is something expected to hit us
It's worth repeating: it's not the virus that stalled people living/working together, it were the lazy cowards that after deserting the economy / after ceasing to help, formed an organisation named "government / state", that used propaganda and violence to force a stall.
And it's not something unpredictable, that's the trend governments bring by their nature: more and more problems creation. And why? Well, goverment / state needs problems - they use these as excuse for their absence as helping hands on the working floor.
The opposite of unpredictability, is planning. Central planning. That's the ugly world they wanna inflict us, and we should oppose it any way we can.
Separate names with a comma.