The term BLACK SWAN EVENT????

Discussion in 'Silver' started by ounces, Nov 30, 2013.

  1. ounces

    ounces New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2013
    Messages:
    56
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
    Where did this term come from(Black Swan Event) come from and what does it mean.
     
  2. Earthjade

    Earthjade Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2011
    Messages:
    904
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    16
    Location:
    AU
    Came from a book about 10 years ago.
    It means "totally unexpected and unforeseen event".
    Back in the 17th century, all the Europeans took it as fact that swans could only be white. That's because in their known experience, they had only ever seen white swans.
    Then, when the Dutch discovered Western Australia, they also discovered black swans in the rivers there.
    So the existing paradigm was shifted by a completely unexpected event.

    In finance, a black swan event is something that disrupts the markets that no one had predicted and there had been no past precedent that could have warned them.
     
    Little_Mountain likes this.
  3. whinfell

    whinfell Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2012
    Messages:
    3,405
    Likes Received:
    121
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Australia
    STKR likes this.
  4. argos

    argos New Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2013
    Messages:
    47
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Australia
    Yep, this term became ever more popularised since the publication of Taleb's book, now in its 2nd ed.

    The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility
    -- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

    In fact, I'm hearing increased chatter of such an event (ie. increasing probability) by some of the notable Gold/Silver experts, and which I believe to be true.

    The *What*... i've no idea, but the *When* may be closer then we think...
     
  5. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    2,629
    Likes Received:
    61
    Trophy Points:
    48
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Swan

     
  6. Byron

    Byron Guest

    Is that Bogie as your avatar? Very nice. Who is it by?
     
  7. Emanance

    Emanance New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2012
    Messages:
    811
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Australia
  8. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 24, 2011
    Messages:
    4,963
    Likes Received:
    150
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    EUSSR
    I would define a financial one as something that some didn't predict / warned for, because their profit needed that surprise haha.

    Example:
    THEIR BLAH BLAH:
    http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/newsManager.cfm?page_id=7&news_id=61
    THEIR ACTION:
    http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/IAU.htm
    2012/11/29 11.390.401,627
    2013/01/24 10.951.823,486
    2013/02/14 10.819.794,343
    2013/03/08 9.863.758,707
    2013/03/27 9.279.432,999
    2013/04/04 9,273,449.210
    2013/04/15 6,653,361.502
    2013/04/17 6,445,378.670
    ...
    2013/11/25 5,464,713.663

    At the same time of this 2013 price prediction, they started selling like lemmings haha. :D
    Afterwards, various articles appeared, wherein was stated that a few large fund holders dumped/crippled their gold positions.
    They needed willing buyers, and that LBMA price prediction certainly helped them.
    'Black swan event', in finance. :p
     
  9. mmissinglink

    mmissinglink Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2012
    Messages:
    6,061
    Likes Received:
    10
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Everywhere...simultaneously
    So, a black swan financial event might look like a chance discovery of 50 million tons of easily accessible gold ore in the middle of Colorado or something like that? :)




    .
     
  10. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 24, 2011
    Messages:
    4,963
    Likes Received:
    150
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    EUSSR
    That would be fun.
    Just imagine.
    All those with piles gold, including central banks.
    BAM
    price down to $0.01 an ounce.
    Who would care most?
    Gold stackers?
    or
    Central banks?
     
  11. mmissinglink

    mmissinglink Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2012
    Messages:
    6,061
    Likes Received:
    10
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Location:
    Everywhere...simultaneously
    CB's wouldn't be worried too much I think because CB's, unlike stackers like those members in this forum, can legally steal a country population's wealth in a number of other ways. Stackers will simply be suffering the massive loss.



    .
     
  12. Alfie

    Alfie Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2011
    Messages:
    368
    Likes Received:
    12
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    It's girt by sea
    Or a surprise nuclear attack on Iran by Israel, dirty bomb attack in New York, derivative market implodes etc
     
  13. Chilli

    Chilli Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2011
    Messages:
    973
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Location:
    Australia

    Care to elaborate please.
     
  14. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 24, 2011
    Messages:
    4,963
    Likes Received:
    150
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    EUSSR
    Notable gold/silver experts?
    From what I've seen during my silver time, those 'experts' were advising to buy after they bought, then advising to sell after they sold.
    See the example case I gave some posts ago here. How ETF gold stocks started to drop big, due to some big fund managers with large gold positions (I believe those are named 'experts') at the same time the LBMA experts forecasted a 2013 $17xx average gold price.
    'Notable'.
    Heh.
    Rather notable in their expertise to do the opposite of what they suggest others.
     
  15. Earthjade

    Earthjade Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2011
    Messages:
    904
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    16
    Location:
    AU
    No, it's not Bogart - it's Albert Camus.
    I found the image in a Google search and really liked it from a Deviantart artist called "MrMusX".
     
  16. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    9,621
    Likes Received:
    2,392
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Pulau Alor ;)
  17. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    2,688
    Likes Received:
    1,503
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Singapore
    It appears many black swans this year but if you look carefully, all are linked, one causes the other, so not so black after all.

    1. corona virus
    2. reduced carbon emission
    3. hot summer and crazy summer storms
    4. megafloods and land slides
    5. fault lines disturbed?
    6. megaquakes?
     
  18. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    9,621
    Likes Received:
    2,392
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Pulau Alor ;)
    non of them are blackswan event, black swan is not something you expect to happen
    virus pandemic movies all over the place, that is something expected to hit us
     
  19. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 24, 2011
    Messages:
    4,963
    Likes Received:
    150
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    EUSSR
    It's worth repeating: it's not the virus that stalled people living/working together, it were the lazy cowards that after deserting the economy / after ceasing to help, formed an organisation named "government / state", that used propaganda and violence to force a stall.
    And it's not something unpredictable, that's the trend governments bring by their nature: more and more problems creation. And why? Well, goverment / state needs problems - they use these as excuse for their absence as helping hands on the working floor.
    The opposite of unpredictability, is planning. Central planning. That's the ugly world they wanna inflict us, and we should oppose it any way we can.
     

Share This Page