I for one are starting to get worried and are so worried infact i'm considering liquidating all my shares this week.... Am i the only one feeling this or am i part of the global sentiment towards markets right now. When i saw the dow touch 13k back and forth over 30 times and not being able to break that psychological barrier i'm getting worried. Am i the only one?
Not the only one. I posted this somewhere else, but I'm feeling like the world is accepting that everything is good again and full steam ahead. Personally I'm getting instincts to go back into shares from cash but I'm putting it down to herd instinct, and that my intellectual mind is likely correct. Don't lose money. Usually in a US presidential year they pull out all the tricks they can to get the incumbent re-elected. Looks like it will be Obama again, So I'd imagine the world's economies will hold together until 2013. But that doesn't mean I trust them not to fall apart beforehand. What it boils down to is that I'm not in a position to risk losing money and so I'll just stay cash and deal with the inflation robbery I think. p.s. I still see March 23 and Greece as a major hurdle to get across.
You've got to be joking - of course you're not the only one. Participants in the stock market are riddled with doubt and anxiety these days. I assume you're not on margin; because worry comes with the territory if you've borrowed. I've taken a compromise - I'm not all in either equities, bullion, or cash. If the stock market craters there'll be bargains galore again as there were in March '09. Fortunes were made buying stocks in '09 by those with cash in reserve who had bided their time and who had enough experience to know that recovery was likely (not me by the way) If bullion tanks there''ll be the option to stack by selling some stocks or using cash. If deflation comes in the buying power of cash will rise If inflation runs up then there'll be compensation for devaluation of cash from inflated stocks and metals prices. It partly depends on how speculative your shareholdings are too. I felt easier after selling some of our spec shares and adding a few companies that have a strong history of earnings and dividend payment and with a reasonable outlook for this to continue. Spec shares create a lot of worry.
I know there's allot of risk around but there has been a few good month's of run up in stocks but i'm starting to think its about to come to abrupt end. Marc Faber even mentioned in one of his latest interviews that the charts where looking exactly the same as 1897 before the huge stock crash(which i might add he correctly predicted at the time). CNBC and Bloomberg are talking of the huge bull market ahead now the DOW's hit 13k so that worry's me even more as mainstream never gets it right when they make such bold statements.
Marc Faber has usually recommended holding some stocks so I'd be surprised if he' suggesting to get all out. He has full flexibility as to the exchange he operates on though - probably Hong Kong or Thai stocks or something like that at the moment. He reckons some US residential R/E has got to a buyable level now . If you like the commentary of Jim Puplava on financialsense.com, he has been saying for a couple of months that the leading economic indicators in the US have been turning up and he thinks high quality divvy paying stocks should be bought over there. Our own HY reporting season hasn't been too bad with obvious exceptions like QBE
There is an illusion that cash is neutral - cash is not neutral it is a possition with risk. I am anxious to a point but recognise it is my perspective and mindset that is flawed. My investment horizon is 10-20 years - what happens in the short term may drop my paper worth, but I believe the higher risk to be out of gold, silver and the affiliated stocks. I dont wanna be left with a bunch of cash I dont know what to do with because I missed the move. Having said all that i do simpathise with everyone - and it is not easy, and the risks on all sides are significant. I own a 50% physical bullion possition BECAUSE its hard to liquidate. Im hedging against my own emotions. The stocks i own are far too easy to sell.
I like the way David Morgan puts it - stop thinking what silver is worth in dollar terms, and start thinking in terms of what an ounce of silver can buy. It takes 33 units of AusDollars to buy 1 unit of silver. It takes 1 unit of silver to buy 1 share in Newcrest and so on.... hypothetical: you liquidate your position and the aud corrects 20% Hypothetical: you invest your aud in BHP Billiton - and the market corrects 20% BHP will pay you to wait till the value rises to a fair level AUD in a bank will pay you reduced value AUD while you wait for fair value to cause it to drop further.
Lots of movement today, materials lost 1.5% I seriously believe if the materials miners got off their arse in regards to dividends and better financial managment in general - they could foster some more trust in shareholders.
Stocks, RE, Cash, Bonds, MS70s, etc etc are all nice and show profits during certain periods, but if the light goes out ( and i am not saying that it will ) but if the light goes out, gold and silver will be a pretty bright lamp.
Im like everyone else - I get gitters and worries My personal portfolio bobed its head above water for a few days and then got pushed down. Im not as diversified as i would like to be - but i do feel quite secure at least for the time being. I should have taken profits last week - but I got stary eyed and forgot to remember resistance levels for my stocks. I have been looking for this correction and my lack of attention (again) has caused me to miss my oppertunity. Well - lose and learn Sanchez!
Been keeping an eye on Silver Lake, that's heading down too. Is it the falling price of gold plus negative market sentiment that's driving the price down?
Not sure if i was the only one(obviously not) but i liquidated all my equities on Tuesday... really it's all resting on this Greece again... this time around i'm being much more cautious though. If bondholders accept losses on Thursday then we should see another significant rally(but it just may be that even if they do accept it the market finally decides it's had enough of the Greeks). I think we could see a test of 4000 on XAO if it breaks 4k then we could be at the next significant slump.
If the Phillips River merger goes through (and its being delayed way too long) - my buy in price will be $2.5 (total cost of my SLR shares + total cost of my PRH shares) Divided by (total number of SLR shares after the merger is complete) = $2.50 average price per share Still not as good as when I missed 1.60 right in front of my eyes last year but a little is better than none
