New Rawdog video is up. He says silver will rise to the mid 30's then be in the 20's by the end of March.
The topic title then is wrong. Selling 1/6 of something is not 'getting out'. About "He says silver will rise to the mid 30's then be in the 20's by the end of March.", well, why not? We had 3 months $27-28 last summer and despite all those claims about silver shortages, there wasnt any, just like there wasn't at $50 and $40. I'm betting on $20's too, since we only saw a dump to $29,5, and the Comex side has more positions left than they had at previous $30 occasions. So I tend to agree with that RawDog here, only that sell/buybackin isn't smthg I do. Also, sticking a moment (March) on a price, well, I assume he's just guessing, because I see nothing that provides a time span. Or is there some 'event' expected in march? End 2012 could have been 5 kilo silver for me. March will be 8-9 kilo.
and if he can predict with any form of accuracy the direction and time of silver movement then he would be a millionaire and not doing youtube, but he can't and his 'guess' is as good as anybodies 'guess' and should not be taken seriously.
How do you know he/anyone is guessing? I see 'guessing' as stating something with nothing to start from. A statement without arguments. Being a millionaire/youtuber or not, is no indicator of the degree at which somebody is able to correctly foresee things to come (although sticking a moment/month on it is likely just a guess). But I do agree with expecting $27 to return. Hell, why not? Silvers bottom price tripled since 2008. Before, it doubled since 2002. The 2002-2008 was in line with alot other products around, the 2008+ wasn't. Hence we saw the $50, $39, $43, $35, $37.5, $35.5 profitgrabs, that wiped out quarters to thirds to even near to halves of the silver price. As long as we don't see enough other price trends catching up on the 2008+ time frame, we can expect to see sub $30 revisited. Especially if people keep on paying the higher prices that were brought by the frontrunning moneyfornothing clubs around. All those that bought monsterboxes at $35 $40 $45 up to $49, they just gave away their dollars to people that predominantly didnt use them to buy silver. Because if they had done so, the price would have been driven back up to exactly where it came from, with as net change only the ownership. I don't know what exactly RawDog's arguments were to swap 1/6 of the stack back to fiat, but he's now able to take advantage of that eventual much lower price, while in the couple years I'm in the silver 'business', I saw alot whining and complaining from people that used the moon as 'argument' to add big to the stack with a smiley at a price that turned out to already have been moon. It's only 1/6 anyway. If he's wrong, and I'm wrong, ohwell, if the amount fiat starts to make me feel uncomfortable due to inflation loss, I'll buy other things instead. I already did over the past months and during past longer term moon prices. Sniffing out 2ndhand sites for bargains in various stuff me or anybody can use now or later, is as fun as for silver. PS I can't watch youtube vids so everything I say is based on what I read here.
So is he getting out or not? I sat through that first long winded, whingey, whiney video where he said he was getting out. How hard is it? Take it to your local dealer and sell it! Simple!! Instead, now he's doing what? I couldn't be bothered watching it as he has the presentation skills of a hyperactive 3 year old, so I presume from what I've read here, he's only selling a sixth of his stack? This dude sounds like a lot of hot air looking for an audience. Like someone else said - who the f*** is Rawdog?
The mere fact that it is as likely to go to $27 as it is as likely to go to $35, makes it as good as a "guess". I have traded in property, shares, bonds, metals, art and business. It is all the same, prices go up and prices go down, it is all about the exit plan. I never said that he was wrong, all I said was that his "guess" is as good as anybody's "guess" thus not worth the 10 pages this tread lasted as anyone here can give you the arguement for and against metal purchase and thier opinion whether metals would be higher or lower but it is not taken as serious as this thread.
Can this thread PLEASE be shut down? To much pleasure & pain...... Has anyone sent this link to Rawdog?
That's not the pertinent question here. The one that matters is : "Who the turtle cares?" The winner here is Rawdog himself, his vids are getting more hits because of his outspoken attitude. Rawdog doesn't fear price movements in silver. He cares about people not paying any attention to him anymore. He comes across clearly as an attention whore. Says outlandish crap on youtube - people put him in the spotlight and talking about him = profit. You can see why he's laughing.
Do stackers worth the title have an 'exit plan'? For ex, for me, silver IS an exit plan. Exit euro, in the role of storage of value. I do my best avoiding to pay silver prices that reflect alot people "with an exit plan". Which I don't consider 'stackers'. All I said was that there is a difference between guessing and speculating. You say that "The Rawdog" and anyone guesses. People that use market/economical data to predict, I don't name 'guessers' but 'speculators'. And I take this thread as serious as any other thread. Because I do my own silver-homework and anothers opinion/lie/whatever is one of the parts of that job. Because, in the end, all of us together that buy/sell silver, MAKE the price.
The main point is that raw dog is just another speculator and what sets him apart from anybody who has an opinion? If everybody who has an opinion garners 10 pages then this would be one boring and repetitive forum as everybody has opinions for and against silver. If you honestly believed "all of us together make the silver price", then you have to learn that all of the small "stackers" in the world mean nothing to the silver price if government, banks or other big wigs decide to move it in whatever way they want using paper silver. All of us combined don't even compare to the daily movement in the silver paper price so unless you are privy to that information then your guess is as good as mine is as good as raw dog, we are all speculating and that is basically akin to guessing.
I don't know if he's a guesser or a speculator, I'm not interested in guessers (you cant learn anything) but I am interested in speculators. To recognize which it is, it requires to know the arguments/data, and if goes like 'my gut feeling' then I know it's guessing. And yes, all of us together make the price, and that 'us' includes governments/banks/etc, because, you know, these are ALSO persons and ALSO visit the silver market and communities. I bought junk silver from people that made clear they worked for banks or government institutes (as indicated by the envelope/package they sent the coins in. The silver market has some 'sides' and physical stackers ARE such a side. If the US Mint alone sells 100 million ASE's in a couple years, then that 'alone' is already 10% of a world supply silver. Add all the other Mints and the private producers. Ishares holds roughly a quarter billion ounces, which equals to 25% of a world supply. There are other ETF's that combine to the same amount. The Comex futures market stock is 150 million ounces. And every side has a buy and hold fashioned part, delivered silver buyers first, then ETF's, then Comex. Your governments/banks/big wigs SOMETIMES drive the price. And SOMETIMES they don't. But you only know when observing all. And frankly, I don't think I say anything new here. You know that as well as me. Yes, some people are 'guessing' into silver. I'm not amongst them. And enough others also aren't. I don't know the case with that Rawdog, and I'm interested in order to know. It's your right to not be interested and to shift it aside as worthless guessing, but I don't.
This thread was running sweet till you guy's came along with all the analytical BS , Me and shiney had just worked out that my dick was bigger than his, That Rawdog was a dick but his was smaller than both of ours if we put them together and that silver could go up or down. I know, who would of guessed that shineys dick was small right ? Or that the price of silver could go Up or Down. As for the last comment I think you are wrong, Just as a small example do you really think it is the big players that have been buying all the latest ASE's ? Is it just the big players alone who have bought up all the mint releases worldwide over the last five years ? Is it the big players alone who have driven the rise in silver 97% since 2006 ? Sure the big players can move and influence the price but it is the ever increasing smaller investor that drives the market. I think you neglect the fact that the market is us, the small player and that the bigger players need someone to prey upon. Just as in nature though the predator needs to feed and if they over exploit the food source they will starve and die, a stacker stacks and that is akin to starving the predator the same way that compounding interest works. A stacker does not use leverage, they own the physical whereas the big players survive on leverage alone. A stacker is also not exposed to the third party counter risk of the leveraged big player, they may only own a small portion but they actually own it, can take it out and play with it, hold it and not worry about covering shorts, exposure to derivatives, FX, geopolitical events, stock market crashes, being sold out, devaluation of a certain currency, nor any of the headaches associated with the current events in the world. A stacker can look at their stack one night and it will still be the same stack a whole week later despite whatever happens in the world. WE DO all together make the silver price, we purchase and stack, sell and buy. But we hold PHYSICAL, not paper or wish's or promises, we actually hold the real thing, not a piece of paper or a contract to sell or buy in keyboard land in a make believe leveraged market. Even the people who play in the big world admit that the paper representing it is a pretend thing. Sure we can not at the moment compete against the big players but that is due to a highly organised and leveraged market based upon smoke and mirrors. The smoke and mirrors will only go so far and last so long before the image is shattered. Then what ? The charade may continue for a while yet but we all know it is doomed, even those in temporary control know it is doomed. The old saying of follow the money tells us what we need to know and what are they doing ? Not stacking paper that is for sure.
So i thought, the GM thread has died, so it's time to bump this one. For new stackers, this thread just about covers everything there is to know about silver (and a shedload of other things you never want to know). There were a lot of emotional stackers posting in this one. LMAO Bump!!!!!!! And coz i feel like it, here's a youtube video. It's an old one I know, but my mate vc probably needs another reminder. :lol: [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7XMCWHn4Mg[/youtube]
And coincidentally RawDog is getting back into silver [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJqx9PjcPFA[/youtube]
Love him or hate him, he is a decent at making money with the metals. I'd say he has done better than many of us who just planned on holding long term.
