Source: Any corperate change has generally this curve Now think back to your past (or maybe your present) where are you on this individual change curve Source: Dave Morgan is one of those 2-5% innovators [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah9AEd3fEUc[/youtube]
I just realised i put the "we are here" in the wrong spot - we're the early adopters - i think remembering that (in my opinion) we just finished a bull market in metals BUT since there is no alternative - we have just started a NEW bullmarket back to back off the last 12 years We are therefore way ahead of the curve 5-13% who believe PMs are STILL in a bullmarket despite the bull market 'ending' last year. This is my crazy view of it
But couldn't you have just as easily have said that 2008 was the end of the bull market when gold and silver prices crashed? Maybe 2009 was the start of the new bull market... EDIT: I think it's still the same one bull market personally that will end with an exponential curve.
The pic isnt a market price its a distribution curve ;P What im trying to say with that picture is only about 15% of the people (worldwide) who are GOING to get involved are involved right now (this is not researched work just communicating what i think)
oh yeah i suppose - but i dont think its 100% fair I really do think technically last year was the end. Maybe what im seeing in my inexperience is the transition from one phase to another phase If so Dec and now would be a great examples of a bear trap.
I'd probably agree if the market was so incredibly manipulated. The end of the bull is on paper and paper is the product. I think that physical has merely paused whilst its paper followers are shredded.
I've been looking at as many charts of different bull markets I can lately and trying to "reverse engineer" them to get a handle on where the PM markets are at in the big scheme of things. Apple is a great one to have a look at (as well as the Dow DotCom boom period) I reckon the most helpfull aspect of studying other secular bull markets is to recognise the cyclical bull and bear markets that occur within the much longer time that the secular bull runs it's course. This really helps to get a handle on the scope of the bigger picture. I also find the comparison of what I call the "mini-bull" that seems to occur right at the start of secular bulls really interesting - The market goes on a real tear heading exponential briefy almost like a signal announcing what's coming, followed by a move right through to correcting back below the mean, all within a fairly short time frame in the big scheme of things. Then the big bull starts to awaken, although due to the much extended time frame it's almost impossible to imagine the size of the beast until he's almost fully up on his feet and runs wild. I reckon in the case of the PM's the bull is just twiching a tick off it's back and we're all in for a fun ride over the next 3 to 10 years The worst part is that parts of the ride happen in slow motion like a train crash which can seem boring if you are focussing too much on the short term stuff (which I think is important in itself, but not the be-all and end-all in the big scheme) The only part I'm not 100% confident in is that governments have been known to do some tricky stuff to put an end to gold bulls, I can't think of how they could at this stage although I think it's smart to never underestimate the power of greed (or is that the greed of power?)
