The 400,000oz per year club....

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by SilverSanchez, Aug 17, 2012.

  1. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    A few Australian Gold companies are competing for the mid-tier gold producer space. This space is prime possition for growth, they are not at all concerned with replacing ounces but the race is on to be the next Newcrest for Australia.

    As far as I can see (there may be more) these are the players

    Regis Resources
    Evolution Mining
    SilverLake Resources
    Kingsgate Consolidated

    All have aquired new projects, all have exploration potential at existing mines
    Add to the list if you know more -

    ___________________________________________________________
    Here is the criteria

    Producing Gold from relatively stable mines (eg not Beadell)
    Stated aim to achieve 400,000 within the next 3 years (eg, Not Troy)
    More than one mine 100% owned opperating mine (eg not Kingsrose)
    Average cash cost well within secure profitability
    PM Specific (eg not Independence Group)
    Peak is before them not behind them (eg not OceanaGold Corp, St Barbara)
    ___________________________________________________________

    However long this list is - I bet within it you will have a portfolio of producers that stand to make you the best mid-long term returns (IMHO)
    They will also be the most sort after takeover targets by Newcrest, Newmont and the other top-tier miners
    Newcrest owns 33% of Evolution
    Newmont owns 20% of Regis

    Why this space is better than investing in top-tier

    Because in the search to hunt for sufficient resources to replace ounces and maintain production - They cant be oppertunistic and pick up bargans (they are on a countdown)
    Investors are theirs to lose (not gain)
    Market may consider them... dull and peaked

    Think about these things, next 5 years will be very interesting to watch this space, there will be a large sum of proffessional investor money to compete for.
    My strategy since May was to accumulate these guys - we'll see how I go ;)
     
  2. thatguy

    thatguy Active Member

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    as always brilliant stuff... keep it coming :)
     
  3. Black_Sun

    Black_Sun New Member

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    Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (a joint venture owned by Newmont [Australia] and Barrick) the operation produces around 850 000 ounces of gold annually and is the largest open pit mine in Australia.

    The Boddington gold mine is one of Australia's newest gold mines, beginning production in 2009. At the end of 2010 it had reserves of 20 million ounces of gold and 2.4 billion pounds of copper.

    http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/news/the-world-s-ten-largest-gold-mines
     
  4. Naphthalene Man

    Naphthalene Man Active Member Silver Stacker

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    But they were mining gold there when I was a kid I'm sure of it. Maybe this is a new pit.
     
  5. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Either way ASX investors cant invest in it, Newmont delisted from the asx. And dont forget Anglo Gold and Idependence Group's JV
     
  6. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    By the way, im not saying this list couldnt grow if other companies like St Barbara etc make extremely good decisions in the M&A arena.

    In the list I think everyone would agree Kingsgate is currently coming last :) I ronically because they may have moved too early.

    But as David Morgan says - its better to be 6months too early than 6mins too late (he was talking about investing in silver)
     
  7. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Still relevant, I think Kingsgate is going to take a while to grow production...

    But silverlake and evolution are doing pretty well.
     
  8. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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  9. Stu

    Stu New Member

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    i like this kind of thing!

    is your 400,000+ in total over the three year period?
     
  10. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    No that is 400,000 ounces per annum for each company

    that target being reached within 3-5 years
     
  11. Stu

    Stu New Member

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    I have been looking and I'm about half way through (I've looked at some many company presentations at one point I thought I was going to vom!)

    Anyway, so far I have found one company that (almost) fits the bill outlined by SilverSanchez above, Citigold Corp being the company in question.

    They are currently producing and produced 7,759oz of gold in 2012 turning a gross profit of $7.8m.

    They are 100% owners of Charters Towers goldfield

    Have recently raised $100m to expand Central mine "aggressively" which will produce 200,000oz pa. overall the company should produce 330,000oz per year

    Last traded on the ASX at 0.55c

    FIN
     
  12. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    I love wading through tripe from mining companies - I actually enjoy it

    But it does make you feel like your going to die after a while.
     
  13. Stu

    Stu New Member

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    yes it does, i'll check the other companies tomorrow cos i'm totally over it! :)
     
  14. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    omg no, not Citigold, possibly the fugliest in the fugly parade
    How many shares now? Looks like 1,352,907,765 ordinary shares plus a $100m convertible bond issued this April 2013.

    This is a company where even our ASX finally had to intervene, as I remember they were stopped going on about 30m 0z 'potential'. The following is a grab sample of the chairman's annual report comments to just give a flavour of this company. The same management are still in place. Must be pretty well off by now, they've got some of my money. If you go back over their 'newsletters' and reports you'll find it littered with references to the future; they are futurologists.


    Company, oated on the ASX in December 1993. Ten years of fund raising later we begin at 2003 ...

    2003 Annual Report
    Chairman's letter

    ".. have one million ounces of gold in resources with a gold potential of 15 million ounces and are poised to commence gold production"

    2004 Annual Report
    Chairman's letter

    "Dear Shareholder
    This was a particularly successful year, with your Company achieving a number of
    milestones in the advancement of our business plan.
    We commenced the underground development of the first of our four new mines, the
    Warrior gold mine. Annual production of 40,000 ounces per year from the Warrior
    mine is scheduled to commence in early 2005"

    2005 Annual Report
    Chairman's letter

    "Annual production from the
    Warrior mine is scheduled to be 40,000
    ounces per year over a minimum ten-year
    mine life"

    2006 Annual Report
    Chairman's letter

    "This coming year we are targeting full production at Warrior gold mine at the rate of 40,000 ounces per year
    and the commencement of development work on the second phase of the charters towers gold project,
    which will take the production rate to 120,000 ounces per year. later phases will build production to
    250,000 ounces per year"

    2007 Annual Report
    Chairman's letter

    "This coming year we are working to build up
    the gold production rate towards our initial goal of
    100,000 ounces a year"

    2008 Annual Report
    Chairman's letter

    "...and I look forward to a rapid increase in gold production"

    2009 Annual Report
    Chairman's letter

    First time he doesn't mention future gold production
    Actual total gold sold during the year was 10,906 ounces

    2010 Annual Report
    Chairman's letter

    " and your Board feel that we have built a solid foundation to now start to grow production and look forward to a strong 2011."
    Actual gold production for the year was almost 16,000 ounces

    2011 Annual Report
    Chairman's letter

    "...a temporary drop in production. However production is now back on the growth path...
    .. should then see gold production progressively grow to exceed 320,000 ounces per year in 5 years."
    Actual gold production was 8,451 ounces

    2012 Annual Report
    Chairman's letter

    "The Central mine expansion plan,
    once complete, will produce over 200,000 ounces of gold
    annually as a part of the overall Charters Towers planned
    output of 330,000 ounces per year"
    Actual gold production was 7,559 ounces and on to the $100m capital raising
     
  15. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Yes yes, I should amend the criteria

    If a company has 1billion ounces - they can have 1 billion shares

    If a company has only 5mil ounces they have no business having 1 billion shares at the mid cap level.

    High issued shares are good evidence the company has not been well managed financially, and if a company is managed poorly in that area - they have no respect for shareholder money, and therefore it becomes increasingly irrelevant how many ounces of productionthey have - they dont use money well FULL STOP.

    Barrick Gold is a good example of a company that has turned winning mines into holes in the ground, and better companies have taken Barrick's mistakes and turned them into successes (eg Evolution Minings aquisition of Panjingo from Queensland mining (I think) when they were taken over by Conquest (the company that was precursur to evolution)
     
  16. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Endeavour's annual gold production is forecast to reach 450,000
    ounces per year during 2014

    asx:evr (ex adamus via takeover/merger)
     
  17. Guest

    Guest Guest

    MML added to the list
     
  18. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Regis Resources (RRL)
    Evolution Mining (EVN)
    SilverLake Resources (SLR)
    Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN)
    Endevour (EVR)
    Medusa Minging (MML)
    Primero (PPM)
     

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