That feeling that it is too late

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by tolly_67, Aug 25, 2013.

  1. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    And what mechanism is there to bring the price back to those sorts of highs? Or is it just wishful thinking.
    If the share price is say 10 cents at gold=$1000/oz, what makes the shares worth $5 again if the gold price skyrockets to even $2000/oz
    I would love it to happen, I have some SLR myself, but what shape is the company in that would drive this rise back to $5?, or even $1 or $2?
     
  2. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    SLR could go out of business and sold for pennies on the dollar, and you could lose the lot.
    Commodities like gold, silver, oil etc and property have intrinsic value, companies generally do not, they can and do go out of business through mismanagement or other factors.
     
  3. Greenman

    Greenman Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm back in on this one also lately. Compare this list to other miners:

    No debt
    Nice hedge for the next 12 months or so
    Old directors moving on, new blood arriving
    Two positive quarterlies in a row (after a couple of years of bad ones)
    Just announced increased drilling program
    Making a profit ($10mil per quarter now)
    Profit fantastic when compared to MC (@70mil)
    Heavily sold down (and rightly so) due to BOTH GP and old management. Still on the nose.
    Holding/Support @.14 amid POG turmoil lately
    Selling AU in AUD which is holding.
    Lots of resources in ground.

    Yes, it's a risk. So is getting out of bed in the morning.
     
  4. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    shape? No idea....This is pure dreaming.
    The company only has to hold on for a little while longer.
    If we follow the 'V' shaped peak to trough and back to peak such as what occurred in the 70's, we are looking at about 4 years.
    Then will come the big rise out ....maybe to 2500 and then the retest of the 2000.....just like what happened in the 70's.
    Then it will be anyones guess. Maybe another 4 years to the parabolic blow-off. Keep in mind that an 8 year build up is perfect for a 5000 dollar blow-off.
     
  5. trew

    trew Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Not to mention the price could drop to 0.02, you buy in big and then management make a capital raising and dilute the crap out of you.
     
  6. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    Good summary, thanks.
     
  7. hyphenated

    hyphenated Active Member

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    Having lost the proverbial arm, leg, piece of torso on this one (ridden it down in flames from a dollar-cost average of 0.85c) I advocate caution. It's the reddest piece of ink in my portfolio by far.

    (I also need to learn when to sell, I guess).

    I welcome the analysis, and new management would be good, as I think the old crew were perfectly happy to stuff their shareholders and dilute them into oblivion. Before I throw more money in there I want to check that the waste grinder is OFF.
     
  8. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    I averaged in at 24 cents and it's still the reddest piece of ink in my portfolio as well.

    Me too.
    I am compelled to put more in, as I have seen these opportunities before and missed them. i.e. once mighty company worth several dollars plummet to tens of cents though poor management, languish at the bottom for a few years until new management comes in with an attitude of shareholder return and skin in the game to make it come good, and so it does, back to several dollars once it trims the fat, starts paying consistent dividends again, and then gets bootstrapped back onto to listings that gains market buy-in.
    The thing that attracts me is the zero debt and making a profit. Not much more downside for companies in that position.
     
  9. hyphenated

    hyphenated Active Member

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    Well, I'll certainly take another look. :D
     
  10. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    Ok, I'm in for more SLR at $0.14, I couldn't resist, brings my average down to $0.20, but might get even more a bit down the track if still at that price.
    I'm in it for the long haul big return, but I see very little downside in a company that is already rock bottom price, in a market segment that is rock bottom, has cash, no debts, and some consistent income plus assets. It's almost the holy grail of speculative stocks, or at least the best one I can find at the moment. All I have to do is wait it out until the gold/mining segment picks up again. I see no way the segment/markey can pick up and not this stock. Granted that could be years, and I expect it to be several years.
     
  11. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    I nabbed some more SLR at $0.13 today. Rock bottom equaling the all time low!
    Doesn't look to be much bottom left in this price. But I'm in for a long term play in my SMSF and also personal portfolio.
    I still haven't found a better value spec play than this.
     
  12. -j-p-shmorgan

    -j-p-shmorgan New Member

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    I'm in at $0.10. :D
     
  13. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    I'll happily average down at 10 cents!
     
  14. Silverstrat

    Silverstrat Member

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    Waited two years to buy this one,loaded up today, lets hope it's a good ride .
    BTW my first share purchase ever......gulp.
     
  15. BuggedOut

    BuggedOut Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm in at 14.5c

    Looks to be a decent risk of me losing my investment here but the potential upside is significant enough to make that risk worthwhile.
     
  16. tolly_67

    tolly_67 Well-Known Member

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    I should get in soon too...
    First share purchase can be like playing pokies for the first time......winnings seems to be so easy....then you get sucked in.
    Using my own theory...since this is the first time you have bought....chances are you are going to be a winner....time to ride your coat tails.
     
  17. -j-p-shmorgan

    -j-p-shmorgan New Member

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    Still waiting. I'm in at $0.10 or $0.18
     
  18. BuggedOut

    BuggedOut Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Keep an eye on SLR.

    Friday saw a volume spike of over 10 million shares trades and it touched 15.5 without any major move in the gold price.

    Either that's due to a derivative expiry type event or somebody knows something.....
     
  19. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Looking at decade monthly charts -
    Some of the gold stocks I still take an interest in look sickeningly prospective to someone not on board: EVN, OGC, RRL, NCM, and worst of all for FOMO (fear of missing out) NST.
    Newcrest is technically trending (higher high after higher low).
    Northern Star NST is just plain strong, albeit with huge swings - must be the only asx goldie still looking parabolic since 2010 if you intuitively iron out the swings? The related company, Tribune Resources TBR likewise.
    Evolution Mining EVN looks to be sitting on top of a flat or rectangular base of almost 2 years. Last month indecisive doji candlestick, this month strong white candle with what will be historically high volume by the time September completes.
    Oceana Gold OGC looks undramatically quite ok, could be just riding out the bear market in a symmetrical continuation shape, never went down anywhere near its GFC lows.
    Regis Resources RRL seems to be moving outside almost 3 years of downtrend on good positive volume, yet to establish a trend in monthly frame.
    Saracen Resources SAR, has been trending up for a couple years, big positive volume spikes along the way, volume lessening, but could be consolidating, readying to tackle very significant 50c resistance level?
    SLR, possibly basing, but nothing like the strengthening picture of the aforementioned. No monthly trend. Good ST trading stock maybe.
    KCN, my only holding, has moved well outside a terrible 4 year downtrend, just gone sideways since. Small candles, low volume - that's better than not. Nothing to distinguish.
    The all ords gold index, XGD, could easily be basing over the last 22 months, but nothing proven yet, no breakout to note, might be making first higher low, double bottom perhaps?
    Just my notions, not betting a dollar on them.
     
  20. Caput Lupinum

    Caput Lupinum Active Member Silver Stacker

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    I recently bought a decent holding in GDXJ during the most recent plunge to the $18.00 level. Still needs to get to about $24.00 to convince me that the trend is changing, but I'm happy to sit and wait it out. I've been taking serious note of gold producers with a decent amount of reserves and a good balance sheet in recent weeks. It's been a long time since I've even looked at gold miners until a few weeks ago. All the above mentioned are on my newly created goldie watchlist with a few others like BOK, PRU and MML
     

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