Tango Petroleum (TNP)

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by mickjohn, Feb 4, 2011.

  1. mickjohn

    mickjohn New Member

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    Oil and Gas Explorer

    With a couple of prospects Amazon and Thames. TNP holds 17.5% interest in the Amazon prospect.

    Shares Issued: 80,000,000
    Current SP: 0.145
    Market cap: $11,600,000

    Options:
    Issued: 42,500,000
    Ex price: 0.20
    Ex date: 31 May 2011

    Drilling on the initial test well (Marian Baker -Amazon) commenced 16 Jan and is estimated to take 50 days.
    Estimated well Total depth 16,000ft

    Status of drilling: reached 9500ft (as at Feb 4 2011).

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    This is my first real attempt at basic stock analysis(criticism welcome).

    It is a very speculative play but with 3d data seimic data as a guide might be interesting.

    Published as a 35% chance of success. Appear to be low on cash(not sure if i read the qrtly cashflow report correctly)- $81k

    Anyone else looking at this? thoughts?
     
  2. tthace

    tthace New Member

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    I actually bumped into Qpn before seeing TNP.

    http://www.qpnl.com.au/images/stories/exciting_explotation_on_the_gulf_coast.pdf

    Big gamble though.... my housemate (engineer) reckons that its quite hard as many companies the likes of BP have failed around that gulf. Don't quote me on that though.
    However the upside is tremendous. When i saw that QPN i was pondering putting down 1k on TPN options lol. possible 30 bagger.

    Im new to shares so don't take my word for it. DYOR.
     
  3. mickjohn

    mickjohn New Member

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    +1.
    I stumbled on QPN initially(what lead me to TNP).
    Current SP is 1.4c and options are selling for something like 0.002.
    ex price is 2.5c and I think they expire at the end of March.

    The options may really pay off for some! maybe not. Its a very tight timeframe and i think there are only 2 ways its going to go..... nowhere or multibagger.

    Anyway, QPN lead me to TNP who are also invested in the same Amazon project. I was thinking about buying ordinary shares in QPN until i looked further.

    Im still very noob, but given that TNP has only around 80,000,000 shares on issue whereas QPN has 10 times that amount on issue. A tighter register may work for or against me. Im hoping its the earlier.

    I figure they both need the options to be in the money to fund further development/exploration. TNP SP only has to rise 27.5% compared to 44% with QPN. I will note however that QPN options are extremely cheap. But that is more than likely because of the ex date approaching soon.

    I have bought a modest number of TNPO, I know its a far gamble but was chasing the longer exp date in case of delays/developments, the lower number of shares on issue and the fact that it has a larger stake in the Amazon prospect (17.5)
    even just 1k in QPNO is very tempting but i dont think im quite ready to throw $ away that loosely.
    They are basing their drill sites off 3d seismic data which I know very little about but has achieved good results previously.

    Its a bit of a flutter, high risk/reward i think.

    As stated earlier im noob, dont take my advice as im probably incorrect 101% of the time. Given that I am invested in it, it is even less likley to pay off.
     
  4. tthace

    tthace New Member

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    just wondering since ive never bought options before. how does it work? if you purchase them and they are in the money, could you sell them easily as options? The volume isnt tat great and would be a hassle if i had to exercise them.

    On a side note, 35% success rate is conservative and given CAZA's success in the region, i dont think its such a bad gamble lol. Gonna punt my soccer winnings on it haha. Im probably better at soccer punting lol.
     
  5. tthace

    tthace New Member

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    hey mick did u see the volume on qnpo today? 16m lol.... with expiry on 31st march... someone knows something or is taking a huge gamble *toot toot*
     
  6. mickjohn

    mickjohn New Member

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    Massive gamble....
    I hope that its a good sign and not the transactions of a man and his loose money. QPN is an interesting play. QPNO is an pretty ballsy play if one doesnt have inside information but with volume like that (up 100% at one stage today), someone is going to be incredibly happy or their missus is going to give them a right spanking come 31 March.
    Not alot of movement in TNP. Volume is slightly above average with a decrease in SP.

    Given the only thing on the immediate horizon is the Amazon play... SPs acting differently. Although TNPO had a good run the other day.

    Keep an eye on CAZA. If success, they will go first followed by the others. Especially if they strike while our market is closed.

    Kinda like reading Tea leaves in the bottom of a cup. Rally may be a sign of being close to TD and a little hype. Got my fingers crossed. Bought a little more TNPO on its backtrack today.

    Edit to add:

    I really have no idea what I am doing. Ref: man and his loose money.... Might as well be quoting myself. Due diligence is reqd.
     
  7. tthace

    tthace New Member

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    35% success rate..... pay is 20+ to 1 ... i guess u need to be 3 to 1 to make this bet worthwhile. Good gamble hehe i loaded up on oppies. i agree qpno is too risky... one site delay and could be well past march 31st. but seriously 24m volume in one day on oppies is bs.

    hitting pay zone this weekend ~
     
  8. mickjohn

    mickjohn New Member

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    Good luck!

    I dont mind QPN as it has reasonable cash and a few other operations in the pipeline (no pun intended). Regardless of what happens here, ill be watching it into the future as I want exposure to the oil and gas market.

    it is hard not to get excited about the Amazon piece. Although even on success, unfortunately im not really invested enough to see life-changing results.... There be a sneaky tipple of some Blue label but that will probably happen regardless whether celebrating or not :)
     

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