Discussion in 'Gold' started by Peter, Nov 17, 2017.
Because it's a buyers market now. As a seller, it often feels like you need to offer spot or near spot prices just to sell something
The past month or two in particular, things have gotten even worse now because in order to sell something you need to be cheaper then the other guy, so collectively we have driven prices down
I would say that's the main reason, but we are entering the Christmas period now too so perhaps people aren't looking to lock up cash in metals
People are moving to crypto too, so there are less buyers and more sellers, flooding the market and driving the prices down
Either way, things seem to have gotten pretty dire here lately and it's a real shame
they are there for you to buy it
Another reason is the price of Gold is up. Most of us bought it at lower prices so we are riding the wave of increases and have decided to sell. Sometimes we offer to sell a bit under spot just to move the items, that's what I reckon anyway. The only thing is it seems to keep on going up everyday lately, sell at your peril!
the sexy is on the hunt
People really haven't bought gold this year. The U.S. Mint's mintage of 1 ounce gold eagles so far this year is 186,000. Last year they made 817,500 and in 2015 they made 594,000. As said earlier, people are putting their money into cryptocurrencies which to me, is a very big gamble! I am not a fortune teller by any means, but I wouldn't be surprised to see gold at $1,500 by mid to late next year...
Same for silver as for gold. I think it is Cryptos. What's more exciting? Silver rising by 50 cents or a bitcoin rising by $5000.00!
as the year is coming to a close real soon, the total revenue numbers would not be very much lower compared to last year ?
we have to wait and see, may be another record year of profit for the Perth Mint
which would mean the production is channel to other products like kilos bars
I think most people have been looking other places in the last 18 months. Looking at the charts there seems to be a bit of a grind and not much action either up or down. That means people tend to look elsewhere, and most will be grabbing silver at current ratios rather than gold.
Most people overweight gold should be swapping into silver and that could also be having an impact, that said silver is not really selling here either.
I have bought just over an ounce in the last 12 months in 1/10ths, 1/4s and allocated. On the other hand I have picked up somewhere north of 5kg of silver into allocated.
Time preference, what economic players are willing to forgo now in order to satisfy their current needs/desires. In this case the present $$ as a result of selling gold now have more value than the future $$ gained by hoarding the yellow metal. In turn those $$ are used to satisfy other needs/desires of more importance than owning gold.
Law of diminishing marginal utility.
what is the supply worth in total here? being put on offer
what % of value got transacted
too realistic we need few bigger buyers to snap up the excess
when we see some strange cats loitering around, they may be worth feeding and later returned for bitcoins
I don't think it's Bitcoin.
Gold buyers buy for security.
You buy Silver to gamble.
Don't think it's Christmas.
Other Christmas's didn't see a rise in sales.
Aussie dollars falling,golds rising.
House market looks like collapsing.
Russia and China buying lots of gold.
Stock markets doing well,maybe buying secure shares.
Maybe selling to secure housing loans.
Maybe people feel we are passed the worst of risky times.
Gold has Gone up just recently so maybe people who have wanted to sell are now taking the opportunity.
If you've just sold,why?
Because I have seen things reverse so quick it isn't funny. The Aussie was .47c against the USD at one stage, then just a few years ago we were $1.10 against the USD, currently we are at .75c. Thinks change all the time. The stock market is another one, the all ords hit 6,800 in 2007, today it is still no where near that point and currently around the 5900 mark.
So things can turn around at the slightest bit of gossip going either way. If you are sitting on real gains already and are getting tummy rumblings about your investment that it might go down then why not sell at a profit?
A massive percentage of PM investors have sold out to Cryptos. I really hope they dont end up losers in this.
The Gold Spike has gone,now less for sale.
Probably just a bank up of people who wanted to sell
and chose to do so on a Spike.
Also some Silver gamblers who also had some Gold sold it to gamble on Bitcoin.If they had sold Silver it would probably have been at a loss,gold would have probably been a profit.
No loss of face.
People who bought Gold to get rich quick are selling and buying Crypto
People who bought Silver to get rich quick are selling and buying Crypto
People who never heard of Gold or Silver bullion and wanting to get rich quick are buying Cryptos
People who bought and hold Gold, Silver and have cash holdings as a portion of diversified investment plan are still holding. Though this doesn’t preclude them from buying crypto with spare cash.
Making money with money aka investing, one must remember that nothing goes up for forever, when the crash comes BTC, Property or stock market might lose 30% or even more
People who sold out near the top or early in the drop will be laughing all the way to the bank.
Look at Perth Housing prices from 2007 peak it is down 25% ten years later!, interest is up 25% and rent is down 30%. So If you bought an investment property YIKes or first home in 2007 painful, if you bought in 2000 not too bad still in the money but should have sold in 2008.
People with money should and are seriously looking for stressed bargain there over the next few years, becuase another resource boom will come within the next ten.
So they sold their Gold to buy Bitcoin.
Bitcoin down 30 percent.
Selling off of gold on this forum occurred long before the crypto booms of the past six months. As long as 12 months ago there were posts commenting on how sales in the "good old days" would barely last 30 min, whereas now many required repeated drops in price and bumps to find a buyer.
Despite very little evidence to support your hypothesis, if we accept it as plausible then it really depends on what time frame you want to look at. Have a look at the chart attached below (yes it doesn't show the recent crash but no big deal), gold up 13% this year which is pretty phenomenal for it, BTC up 250%, and ETH up a lazy 2637%. Your quoted figure of a 30% decline in the value of BTC occurred over maybe a 2-3 hour period of turbulence on Friday that saw the value of 99.9% of cryptos plunge, rise and plunge again. Now they're rising and some of them (eg XVG) are up over 100% since their all-time highs of less than a week ago, and this is during what many perceive to be a quiet period due to the approach of the festive season.
Source : coingecko
FWIW I haven't sold any gold for cryptos so there you go, your hypothesis has hit a snag with me. I did get rid of most of my septic silver holdings in my SMSF PMDS unallocated account and couldn't be happier. In the space of a fortnight looking at the proceeds on paper from the sale of that silver, I recouped all of my losses over the past 6 years and have doubled my investment.
So your point about a 30% decline is ... pointless and smacks of schadenfreude.
This takes us back to an individual's rate of time preference. Individuals are selling gold (or any of the other PMs) now because they perceive the value gained by holding it for the future is less than the value gained by selling it in the present. In plain english that means gold has lost some of its lustre and people are selling it because they want their money now and they are looking for a better way to use it, that may well be cryptos, but it could also be a number of other asset classes or emergent spending needs.
You shouldn't buy gold/silver to get rich, you buy them to hedge against inflation and have some "real currency" if something goes wrong with USD/AUD. Some people have got rich buying gold/silver and good luck to them but compared to crypto their prices move like a snail.
I think you'll find any silver/gold bug that makes profit in crypto will be buying more silver/gold in the future.
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