Silver Spike...

Discussion in 'Silver' started by SilverSale, Jun 14, 2019.

  1. SilverSale

    SilverSale Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Stockmarket getting VERY interesting..

    DJIA has broken the uptrend support line, has moved back up & touched resistance.

    May be in for some decent drop from here.

    broken.png
     
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  2. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I’m watching oil majors. Bp, Chevron, Tot, Exxon. Can’t decide which? Ability to switch to hydrogen willl be a plus.
     
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  3. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Ok, great. You are already aware of spoofing.
    For anyone who doesnt know what spoofing is it's:
    "Spoofing involves placing bids to buy or offers to sell contracts with the intent to cancel them before execution. By creating an illusion of demand, spoofers can influence prices to benefit their market positions."

    You mention isolated instances?:

    "There has been a surge in spoofing-related prosecutions in recent years. Bank of America Corp’s (BAC.N) Merrill Lynch commodities unit, for example, paid $25 million in July to resolve actions by the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission and Department of Justice for precious metals spoofing trades between 2008 and 2014."...

    JPM spoofing
    "Trunz placed “thousands” of orders he did not plan to execute for gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts between 2007 and 2016, and had learned to spoof from more senior traders, the Department of Justice said in August, adding that he was cooperating with “the ongoing investigation.”

    I would say that a several thousand instances from several Bullion and investment banks over a 7-8 year period is far from isolated.

    As for the long term price suppression. Let's lay down some facts without speculation:

    1.) the trading and daily supply/demand of the paper derivative contract is what determines the physical price.

    2.) Position limits exist on buying silver contracts, but no limits exist on selling.

    https://investingnews.com/daily/res...ies-position-limits-and-comex-silver-futures/

    3.) Banks have limitless ability to create new contracts (relative to their ability to meet margin requirements), and are able to issue new contracts to meet demand whenever there is a spike in buying interest from speculators.

    If you can agree with the above points, then you will agree that the framework for price manipulation is already in place and we can move on with the debate. If you don't agree, please explain why and I'll attempt to offer more clarity.
     
  4. Court Jester

    Court Jester Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Lol

    Do you think the silver institute is giving un biased reports or news I want some of what your smoking
     
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  5. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Nice story, but as I mentioned above - mere postulation.
    I would say that the actions of only "several" do not constitute the main, and would be generally considered much closer to isolated instances than wild inferences of of main-stream conduct.

    Far from "lay down some facts without speculation":

    1) Agree, as mentioned above.

    2) BS. This is a total falsity, and not even close to the truth. Your link indicates no relevant information. I can only assume you lifted this untruth from a permabull publication.
    Position limits are calculated on a net futures-equivalent basis by contract (CME Rule 562). I suggest you learn what this means.

    3)No-one has the limitless ability to create new contracts - as they need a counter-party for the contract to be created. Sure, new contracts can be issued to meet demand, but that is the key - demand. But without demand, "limitless" becomes just another wild postulation.

    Guess we don't agree there is any framework for manipulation in place?
    That fits nicely with my previous position - that long-term price suppression remains a mere dream of the butt-hurt-egos of permabulls.
     
  6. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Right. Please direct me to where YOU get your accurate data from regarding supply and demand...
    And it takes Years of building strong connections to get the stuff I'm smoking. I'm not going to just give it away to any fool.
     
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  7. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    When I first bought silver, the next month or two after, it plunged by nearly 15%. Today, I'm up 10% on my silver stack even if I dispose my QB, Lunars and 10 oz bars at spot. If silver rises to $19.50, it will be 20%, and 30% if it rises to $21. If silver drops back to $14. I'll just buy more. Am I bothered? No. It's only 12% of my portfolio, and I enjoy it even if it doesn't move. At least I can look at it, unlike stocks, ETF and bonds.

    It's impossible to know what will happen in the future, we can only make an educated guess based on supply and demand information and statistics from the Silver institute. The key to this game is diversification across various metals, stocks, real estate and also CASH.

    As Marc Faber says, gold, silver and platinum are the best currencies. In the long run, all will go up. No point thinking so much and getting worried over short term price fluctuations.

    The most important question is - how many ounces of debt free silver, gold or platinum have you got?
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2020
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  8. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Isolated instances would indicate that something only occured a couple of times. Spoofing over a 7-9 year period is not isolated, nor is the frequency at which they are conducted.

    We are not discussing the mainstream manipulation of the market, We're discussing manipulation by the banks. I was responding to your mention of previous manipulation via spoofing.

    Ok. I agree with you that point #2 held no weight in regards to how I wrote it.
    Position limits do exist for buying and selling, but exemptions are given to 'bona fide hedges' which allow the big commercial banks to have no limits on their short positions. This allows control over price discovery.

    With position limit exemptions given to the major commercial banks on a 'bona fide hedge' basis, the commercial banks have every power to counter said 'demand', relative to their ability to meet margin requirements. No position limits = limitless ability to meet demand.
     
  9. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    OK. I agree to disagree on the semantics of "isolated".
    Either way my original assertion, that long-term price manipulation/suppression has not been demonstrated, still holds.

    False again.
    A granted exemption will in no way "allow the big commercial banks to have no limits on their short positions".
    By definition, these exemptions allow a participant to hedge only their physical exposure to the particular commodity.
    CFTC Regulation 1.3(z) requires that "no transactions or position will be classified as bona fide hedging...unless their purpose is to offset price risks incidental to commercial cash or spot operations and such positions are established and liquidated in an orderly manner in accordance with sound commercial practices. …"
    For example, a short hedge includes sales for future delivery (short futures positions) that do not exceed its physical exposure in the commodity in terms of inventory, fixed-price purchases and anticipated production over the next 12 months.
    Given the above requirements, if you can explain how these exemptions are open-slather for no limits on their short positions, I'll hand you my shirt. Additionally, in light of the need to use these limit exemptions to cover physical or equivalent, if you can explain how this allows control over price discovery, then you deserve a PhD in "New-Age Commodity Price Risk Assessment Methods to Circumvent All Currently Known Market Forces".

    See Above.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2020
  10. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Are you trying to make a claim that Bullion banks such as JPM do not have physical exposure?

    What size shirt are you? I'm not sure if I want it.
     
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  11. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    No.
     
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  12. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I agree with you. Upon reflection, I did misuse the terms "unlimited" and "No limit". You've helped me understand this better by the conversation you provoke. I value your perspective and appreciate the time you've invested in replying to me. Also, I don't ever intend to make anything personal. My competitive nature combined with an excitable ego can cause me to get caught up in the moment at times. My bad.

    I do see there are limits to the exemptions given to the commercial banks. I have heard claims about JPM's inventory but can't find reliable data, if that's even possible. It would make a lot of sense that, given the information you shared:

    That JPM would increase their silver inventories to have the ability to increase his short positions on the Comex, if 'they' were indeed manipulating the market long-term:

    I just see that there has already been instance of manipulation + illegal and unethical conduct from certain banks in the Silver market. These banks appear to have an incredible amount of power and influence, both financially and politically. I

    Ive read that JPM has a significant position in the Silver market, other claims that JPM makes up to 30% of the commercial short trades and that 'they' have up to 900Moz of physical silver in their inventory.

    Whether these stories are true or not, the most likely culprits to manipulate the markets and suppress the price of silver are the commercial banks trading in the market.

    JPM was labelled a "criminal enterprise" by the DOJ over the spoofing/manipulation, and that apparently went on for over 7 years.

    It's not too far fetched to think that these banks would or could suppress the price of silver long term. They do influence the market more than most traders and I wouldn't say commercial banks have a strong history of good intention.

    I cannot find one bit of solid evidence that they have suppressed the price of silver on a long term basis, but there is a whole lot of dots that connect the narrative together.

    Whats your thoughts on this?

    Is price suppression possible? I believe so.

    Is it likely?
    I believe so. I also believe it's suppressed, along with gold, to distract the public from what real money is and to shine the light away from the devaluation of the Dollar (and other world currencies). All to keep this global fiat monetary experiment going.

    Again, I apologise for my behaviour and the way I was writing. That's not the person I am, but it is how I can be at times. I do value the discussions and hope we can continue them more productively.
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2020
  13. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  14. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  15. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  16. SilverSale

    SilverSale Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    -600 DJIA, not a bad effort.

    Should be more next week
     
  17. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    All good. I tend to be the same.

    Over the years I have read hundreds of articles on manipulation, JPM, long-term price suppression, COMEX etc.
    Their are a few commonalities that come up over and over again:

    Firstly, one common theme is that they are all based on trying to "connect the dots", rather than fact - and all lack solid evidence or data to support their accusations. Problem is, a lot of the "facts" their theories are based on are total BS, as pointed out in the discussion above. Especially regarding the workings of COMEX, where claims to support their argument are obviously fabricated. This makes their argument less than plausible from the start.

    Secondly, all the accusers are required to conflate JPM with JPM-clients. That is, they conveniently disregard the fact that the majority (if not all) of JPM's physical silver inventory is client owned, and has that ownership individually attached to it. It is necessary to pretend that all the client holdings, and JPM, are one and the same - otherwise they have no basis to paint the picture of JPM being a criminal enterprise, and their suppression theory falls apart. The fact that JPM cannot freely use client holdings to secure limitless naked short positions on the open market is also conveniently ignored. Now, if you were to assume hypothetically that the vault inventories were actually owned by JPM, there are a lot of contradictions between the sinister theories and how markets actually work - why would JPM be hoarding an asset that they are working to suppress the price of? This would be a loss-making exercise, tie up a lot of working capital for bugger-all return, hurt clients, and not in-line with what investment banks actually aim to do. Also, hoarding physical would work to reduce supply, and act against their price suppression objectives. None of it makes sense.

    Lastly, the permabulls producing these fabricated articles all claim to be fighting-the-manipulation-fight on moral grounds. They claim to be taking the moral high-ground against the criminal institutions and governments for the good of the world's population. Apparently, the above-ground world physical silver stocks are 79,000 mt (2.5 billion oz's) as stated by the World Silver Survey. The world population is about 7.7 billion.
    Distributed evenly across this population, each individual holding would equal about 1/3 oz. These numbers make it fairly clear what the underlying motive is behind "the fight", and it would definitely hurt the majority of the world's population, far from helping them. These moral-warriors are the same people building up significant stacks of physical on the claimed basis of merely "preserving wealth", then whining like bitches that price hasn't yet "gone-to-da-moon". I would suggest these are just another group of minority activists - virtue signallers with a clear, self-centred agenda, using typical BS left-wing tactics to make a fabricated David/Goliath argument for their own gain, with total disregard for the common-good. They seem to have convinced some of the unwitting, and established a small group of disciples who chant the same chant, and continue to do so to protect their butt-hurt egos given the missed opportunities of having had capital tied up in silver for a number of years.​

    Anyway, that is my opinion.

    You may be wondering why the fk I am part of this forum?
    Given my background, I love metals. I use my phys stack as a platform to trade the paper market to make real returns. I have done well out of physical gold, and it is a nice way to keep out of the prying eyes of the ATO.

    Cheers
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2020
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  18. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Lie BOR
    Bernie Mad-off
    they are extremely difficult to prove
    the mastermind insider
    Gold USD convertibility is just temporarily suspended
     
  19. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I did find it interesting that when I was looking for evidence that long term price suppression did exist, there were many that made the claim but none could offer hard proof.
    I very much do see your perspective and think it's rational to be sceptical without the presence of hard facts to support the theories.

    I find this interesting. Do you have any info on this or can you direct me to where you found this info?

    But by removing the term "limitless", can they still use client holdings to secure naked short positions? The problem is largely with the terminology and not JPM's ability the enter the market.

    based upon the CFTC regulation stating a bona fide hedge exemption cannot exceed physical inventories, I would think that JPM would have a lot to gain if they were indeed suppressing the price of silver. Not only would they be able to buy at low prices, but they would also have more leverage to keep the prices low. In that scenario, it wouldn't be a loss exercise, It would be very worth while.

    I definitely agree that it would tie up a lot of capital.

    Other claims are that JPM has never lost a trade on silver. They have been 100% successful with every trade they make in the Silver market... allegedly. I don't even know where you'd find information on this, but regardless, I'm sure they have no problem being profitable on trades. I can see how this could all fit into the suppression theory and turn the physical hoarding into a profit making exercise in the short and long-term.

    Well ranted. I know the behaviours and perspectives you described are prevalent within the silver community. It's understandable. I see how one can formulate the views we do. There's a clear relationship between people who understand the game being played by the money manipulators and those interested in PM's. There will be extremes on both sides within every group.

    I guess it all boils down to individual expectations. I'm very content with the reasons I'm in PMs. It's a self managing, Self-Managed-Superannuation-Fund for me (in the bulk of my acquisitions), and a 'forced savings' plan for much of the remainder. Silver and Gold are typically good places to be in, even without a "to-da-moon" event.
     
  20. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Noticed a sudden spike in silver for sale on this forum at spot or just above spot. When this happened previously, Silver will spike within months.
     
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