Silver to fall to average $23 from $30 in 2011 so says Robin Bhar !! That's likely to be a bit of a bummer having stacked recently. Volatility is the curse of the PM collector but not if prepared to stack higher - "To Infinity and Beyond!" ____________________________________________________________________________________ Here's the extract - copied from a Kitco Dec 16th news item - Metals analysts said as long as interest rates remain near zero, there is no opportunity cost to hold precious metals. With the Fed likely to continue its quantitative easing program where it buys U.S. Treasury bonds to push down longer-dated interest rates there should be enough stimulus in the economy to invest in metals. Further, a pickup in manufacturing in Asia and other emerging markets should increase demand for silver. Robin Bhar, senior metals analyst at Credit Agricole CIB in London forecasts silver prices to average nearly $23 an ounce in 2011 on support from investor demand and a pickup in manufacturing. That forecast is down from the current trading price of around $30, which again underscores the volatile nature of silver. __________________________________________________________________________________________________ Now you are warned !!!!!! PS "Credit Agricole" sounds to me like an Italian Farmer's Bank so what does a pasta lover know ? Bit of background research required perhaps before redrawing stacking plans for the forseeable future.
Don't think so reading the next line - That forecast is down from the current trading price of around $30, which again underscores the volatile nature of silver.
Since he appears to be wrong quite a bit, I don't think I will take his price predictions seriously. July of this year with gold at $1200 he didn't see anything to move gold higher in price. http://www.coinnews.net/2010/07/08/gold-silver-metal-prices-commentary-july-8-2010/ In 2009, he forecast a 2010 high for gold of $975 (silver $15), 2011 $1025 (silver $16) and long term $650 (silver $7). http://mediacommun.ca-cib.com/sitegenic/medias/DOC/77497/gold-market-presentation.pdf And the latest one. http://www.commodityonline.com/news...mates-for-Precious-Base-Metals-34263-3-1.html For one month, he has gold at $1400 and silver at $26. If most of these price predictors invested based upon their own predictions, they would be broke.
That's great...a lower price will mean every silver stacker on the planet with fiat dollars will hoard more! Buying opportunity galore. I hope he's right. Just think, not only will many on this forum buy more the Asian buyers are going to go shopping big time for the Ag and Au. The spot price and physical price will no longer correlate. That's for sure. I mean, there's only so much silver out there. Much less than the manipulators would like us to believe. The market is waking up to this fact. By the way assuming that 1500 dollar silver will mean hyperinflation is not necessarily true. If we continue to see Ag as 'just' an industrial metal and luxury item it may not mean 50 dollar bread and 10 000dollar power bills. I mean there are plenty of commodities that are expensive (rare earths for example) that don't correlate to hyperinflation. Did golds rise coinside with hyperinflation?
+1 on this ! Its fine to make predictions but as Taleb says in the Black Swan, prognostication is a guessing game and should be put in the field of GUESSING and not science dollar cost averaging also would make this moot $25 silver ? bring it on $35 silver ? thats fine too personally I am asking santa for $22 silver for christmas
and the google advert to the right says "silver to hit $250 in '10" i'd be happy up or down, however i do see the US dollar still dropping agains tthe $AU
Not going to happen. Just look up on youtube on sgtbull7 latest interview with Harvey organ. The LBMA are having supply issues delivering, then you also the Asians backing the truck everytime there is a dip. I doubt we will see prices under 25 for a long long time if ever. His probably a silver bear, working as a agent to feed bullshit online. I have friends and family that want to start buying up big on the sidelines. Either way keep stacking, I will keep buying until it goes past $35. Slam
Yep I listend to that last night, if they can push it to <$25 they will get absolutely smashed and it may as well be game over
I hold silver and I don't want the price to fall. People who go on about how nice it would be for the price to fall are silly.Maybe you'd like it to fall to $7 and stay there.You could buy all the silver you like then and have plenty of time to do it. I think people must be basically unsure of silver to go on like this.Or greedy. I hope silver just keeps on rising and rising.Be better wouldn't it.No matter when you bought you'd make a profit,and safer too.And not gut wrenching. All this,we are on a sure thing and we are all going to be rich.Times are very unsure and anything could happen. Look at the world Economy. We could easily lose lots of money on silver. If you don't see that possibility ...
Long term id rather have silver than Fiat....when the SHTF i wont give a bugger about price drops :0)
Peter, Sharp declines in the price of an asset is not gut wrenching for those who are confident of the intrinsic value of an asset. Stop listening to the market. As Warren Buffett has said volatility is the find of the investor and the enemy of the speculator. As far as I'm concerned I would be perfectly happy to own the investments I own now even if they went un-traded (i.e. no price information available) for 5 years. Low prices present a buying opportunity and high prices represent a selling opportunity. Do you wish the price of petrol which you buy all the time to g up? Do you want the price of food you buy to go up? Why would you want the price of silver that you are buying to go up? That's completely irrational (for those who are already set and are looking to sell if the price rises that is a different scenario). I once bought a stock which had fallen over 2/3rds and after I bought it fell another 80-90% down to bargain basement levels (it was trading at 10% or less of its intrinsic value). I was looking to buy more but unfortunately didn't have any more money at the time, but did suggest it to some family members after it had dropped a lot from where I bought it. The stock is nearly back up to what I paid and the family members have made a lot of money on the purchase. I didn't even blink after a 90% drop despite the stock being around 40% of my net worth at the time of initial purchase. However this being said if the intrinsic value of silver where to drop then I would be worried and would need to reassess the situation. Worry about changes in intrinsic value, not changes in price. In short never listen to the market (throw out all that charting voodoo) because the market is often irrational. Remember never confuse price and value as price is what you pay and value is what you get. I would be perfectly happy for silver to drop to $7 AUD per ounce (assuming no decline intrinsic value has occurred) and stay there for the next 5 or even 10 years allowing me to accumulate bargain priced silver. Hell if it goes to $2 even better as I can buy even more.
If US interest rates rise, its likely the US dollar will rise, pushing Ag higher in $A. If the USD/$A rate goes to a more historical level of say 75 cents, silver could fall from $US 30 to $US 24 and there would be NO change in $A terms, it would still be $A 30 an ounce.
