Because it seems that markets are offering maybe the last sell off before going parabolic and it also seems that we can be pretty close to the bottom of this sell off, I am jumping in to silver mining companies which are located politically less risky countries. Before we can go deeper to specific mining companies, I'd like to discuss what are the least risky countries in the world. I assume that things are going to get a lot worse, so let's keep this as a base for this thread. What do you think - which countries are going to nationalize least in the future in a pretty bad scenario? Australia, Canada, Northern Europe?
Hello CLZ. Best introduce yourself first if you want to get on with everyone as opposed to asking questions to your benefit.
I think Canada is the best shot. As far as I know they haven't pulled a stunt like the Australian Labor Rudd government yet: "The Australian people want our fair share of our resources wealth". Resources Super Profits Tax tried and then modified to Mineral Resources Rent Tax. The Australian people aren't around to put in their fair share when the companies are developing or making losses. Generally I reckon your chances are much better stacking cheap metal - mine managements take all the money after governments, you're just there to provide capital and take risks.
A web search will give you the top silver producers in any specified country, then correlate their share price graph with silver over the past five years as a guide. If they do lots of other stuff, there may be little or no relationship. If it's in lockstep you can perform a crude calculation on where the share price will go if Silver takes off. Then perform your investment research Bear in mind that the targets you pick may not list conveniently on an exchange for which you have an account. Not sure how to trade on Toronto, for example.
IMHO, if push comes to shove regarding financial downturns all countries, with very few exceptions, will nationalise their mines.
Thanks for reply. >I think Canada is the best shot. I'm thinking to decentralize to different countries, so what would be for example your 4 top countries? >Generally I reckon your chances are much better stacking cheap metal - mine managements take all the money after governments, you're just there to provide capital and take risks. You are probably right - I just think FIAT-moneys of whole planet (USD,EUR,JPY etc.) are going to be very interested in mining companies. Mining companies are in the stock market and the big mass of FIAT-money holders world contains only interests from banks, stock markets and maybe bonds. Maybe I am wrong, but I think that especially pure silver mining companies in politically less risky countries is the place one should be. I think there is most room to go up at the moment. And yes - I understand that this is pure speculation. Physical is kind of counter party risk free - stocks are not.
If we look back to history - U.S. has not never nationalized mining companies and I have not heard that have happened in northern Europe neither. (If I remember right.) I think there is big difference in nationalizing risk between different countries.
