Silver is on the move???

Discussion in 'Silver' started by Dolly123, Jun 14, 2018.

  1. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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    Every time Silver gets up, it gets knocked down again.

    Oh, well, we'll just have to hope it keeps getting up again.

    DOG KNOCKING A KID OVER.gif
     
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  2. whay

    whay Well-Known Member

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    And yet there are still plenty blind mice who insist there is absolutely no manipulation... demand and supply matters... silver will always be more expensive... GSR is relevant... reading charts/COT will nail price movement... without silver the world will end... SHTF next week... silver will be money again... will cost $400 per oz soon.......yada........... etc ......yada.........

    Quit reading fake news sites that publish these craps. And people who believe any of it deserve to lose their money.
     
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  3. Dolly123

    Dolly123 Active Member

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    Stone the non believer hahahaha.
     
  4. Dolly123

    Dolly123 Active Member

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    Of course there is manipulation
     
  5. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Silver is on the move!!!

    $38 04 april 2011 "Great way to start the week......don't you think?"

    $39 05 april 2011 "39 ...One more step up the ladder"

    $40 07 april 2011 "Thursday..............Yet another up day"

    $41 13 april 2011 "Hump Day...........Up Day"

    $42 14 april 2011 "Killer Thursday............Movin' on up"

    $43 15 april 2011 "A Fabulous Friday............Great Finish For The Week"

    $44 19 april 2011 "Monday.........Up Up and Away"

    $45.5 20 april 2011 "A Whale of a Wednesday............45+"

    $46.50 21 april 2011 "A Thundering Thursday...............Look at that puppy go!!"

    $46 25 april 2011 10:13 AM "How is this morning for a little reality?"

    $48 25 april 2011 04:09 PM "Monday Mayhem.............Y'all survive? Monday Mayhem............Y'all survive? What a day. Actually, not all that bad. The long term trend is still up. Just a minor bump. A "little" more volatility than usual."

    $46 26 april 2011 "A downturn of 2 days or 2 weeks is not significant in the over all scope of things"

    $49.50 28 april 2011

    $48 29 april 2011 "Silver..........Something to consider"

    $38 5 may 2011 "A 5 minute call to my bullion dealer. A little friendly haggling over price, and the deal was done. Truck picked up my silver on Wed, funds wired to my account today. You need a very good relationship with your dealer. I've talked to him at least once a week for almost 10 years."

    $33 7 may 2011 "Silver...If you are never going to sell, what benefit is it to you?"

    Same person posting.
    Once Upon A Time, In The Valley Between The Double Peak,
    he said that the long term trend was still up.

    Only talked about you selling at $33.

    Ladies and Gentlemen,

    On This Eve Of Destruction,

    We Are Now Flying At Altitude $15,

    Ladies ?

    Gentlemen ??

    Nobody ???

    Anybody ????

    Cap'tain the Plane is Empty ????!!!!

    No Stew, there's a horse and 3 sheeps in the cargo hold.
     
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  6. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    silver down, bitten Apple up to 1 Trillion wow
    someone please take out your big note to buy that apple company, eh lemon company

     
  7. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    silver down?
    It's crawling with an amplitude of 50 cents around $USD 15.50 since two weeks
    And autumn is on the way.
    That's when the apples fall.
     
  8. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    One can also say:

    Every time Silver gets down, it gets knocked up again.

    Oh, well, we'll just have to hope it keeps getting down again.
     
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  9. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    I knocked it up last week with my 30 kilo purchase.
    Since the horse and the 3 sheeps here were mowing grass instead of helping me out :(
     
  10. Number 47

    Number 47 Well-Known Member

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    As a side note, is it just me or has Mike Maloney gone dead quiet now that silver has gone on a downhill slide? He was going nuts while the price was moving up, or at least he was suggesting that we go nuts buying.

    Anyone would think that he was in the buisnes of selling pm.

    Perhaps I'll do the exact opposite of what he suggests in the future and see how I go.

    His silence is suggesting to me that I should be buying up ... I bet he is.
     
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  11. ozcopper

    ozcopper Administrator Staff Member

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    I noticed that too.
     
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  12. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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    The latest missive from GoldSilver:
    If History Repeats, You’ll Buy a House for 100 Ounces of Gold or 2,000 Ounces of Silver (Or Less)
    Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst, GoldSilver
    JUL 31, 2018

    Real estate prices look to be topping out. Gold and silver prices are back at 2010 levels. As the relative pricing of these two assets reverses over the coming years, it will afford those with a meaningful holding of precious metals the opportunity to buy a house outright.

    That may be a bold statement, but it’s based on the historical relationship between these two asset classes. They tend to be (though are not always) inversely correlated, so as one gets overvalued you tend to find the other one undervalued. Outside of the stock market, real estate prices have of the strongest inverse correlations to the price gold and silver.

    Here’s the historical relationship between the price of the average US home and the price of an ounce of gold over the past 43+ years (house price divided by gold price). The highs and lows are marked.

    [​IMG]You can see that at gold’s peak in 2011, it took only 143 ounces of gold to buy the average-priced home in the US. And when gold peaked in 1980, it took a mere 106 ounces.

    If real estate is indeed topping out — there are reports that both sales and supply are reversing — and you accept even half of what Mike Maloney thinks is ahead, then property should be sold now and gold bought. And then wait for the ratio to reach an extreme low and swap back.

    That “extreme low” likely won’t occur until the real estate/gold ratio falls below 100. That’s because unlike the 1970s, most major asset classes are in a bubble today, something history has rarely witnessed… the global financial system is much more precarious now, particularly when you include widespread money printing that wasn’t present then… and debt loads are at all-time highs for most segments of society — government, corporate credit, global credit, student loans, auto loans, derivatives, and unfunded liabilities for both federal and many states. Add it all up and it is hard to imagine a scenario where gold and silver do not soar in the upcoming fallout. So yes, a gold/real estate ratio below 100 is not just possible but probable.

    But it’s not gold’s ratio that has my mouth watering. It’s silver. Here’s the historical relationship of silver and real estate since 1975, also with the highs and lows marked.

    [​IMG]

    You can see how extreme the readings have been, which is due to silver’s high volatility. We’ll use that volatility in our favor, as a repeat of just 2,052 ounces to buy a house is highly likely. As with gold, though, the ratio will probably drop even further in the type of crises we see ahead.

    So yes, four monster boxes of silver could indeed buy you an average-priced home at the bottom of the cycle (before taxes). That’s an amount even those with a modest budget can handle.

    Pretty exciting, eh?

    Why I Like Gold Better Than Real Estate (for Now)
    I’m personally itching to buy some real estate. Partly because I’m not getting any younger, partly because I want a vacation home, and partly to build a family legacy. And let’s face it, real estate is also a real asset, and has the added advantage over gold that it can produce income. In other words, gold is not a substitute for real estate.

    But for the near to medium term, the likely price trajectory for real estate is down and for precious metals, it’s up. So for now, I remain focused on accumulating more and more metal so I can capitalize on the ratio reversal when it happens.

    And I like the advantages gold has over real estate. How many of these would be beneficial to you?

    • Gold is portable; land and houses are immobile. You can’t pick up your house and move it elsewhere; gold travels well. If local taxes or regulations impact your real estate investment negatively, you’re stuck. If I’m worried about these things with my gold, I can move it elsewhere easily and quickly.
    • Gold doesn’t require maintenance, real estate does. Houses and buildings require new roofs and toilets and paint. All I have to do with my gold is keep it safe. A real estate investor can deduct “depreciation” on their tax return, but that’s because stuff wears out and you have to repair or replace it. Gold, in contrast, has very low maintenance and carrying costs. Pay a small fee for professional storage and you’re set.
    • Gold has high liquidity; real estate has low liquidity. Selling a piece of real estate takes time, effort, expense, and usually outside help. If you need the cash quickly you’re out of luck. With gold you can liquidate in one day — or in just three minutes if you have an online storage account.
    • Gold is divisible, real estate is not. You can’t sell half your house if you need some cash, but you can sell half your gold stash. You could get an equity line on your house, but you have to apply… be approved… wait for it to be set up… then request the cash. Meanwhile I was able to sell half my gold holdings while you were reading this.
    • Gold has superior tangibility. Houses can burn down, but my gold coins and bars can’t be destroyed by fire, water, or even time. Heck, the gold from a 200-year old shipwreck just needs to be wiped off. This makes gold an especially attractive asset to leave to your heirs.
    • Gold is more value-dense. I can hold $50,000 worth of gold in the palm of my hand. I can store a quarter-million-dollar’s-worth in a safe deposit box.
    • Can be private and confidential. If I want, I can keep my gold and silver out of sight from nosy neighbors and other prying eyes. Not so with real estate.
    • Gold requires no specialized knowledge. Real estate requires research, on-site visits, appraisals, inspections, and usually the help of a broker, all at an expense. All you really need to know for gold is to buy high-quality bullion, avoid rare coins, and store it someplace safe. Done.
    • Gold is cheaper! As the charts above show, gold and silver are significantly undervalued compared to most real estate around the world. The opportunity available today is not in the property market but in precious metals.
    The fine print here is that you sell near gold and silver’s peak, and that you pay the tax on the gain from another source. Do those two things, though, and the home is free and clear.

    There aren’t many investment certainties in life. But much lower ratios in gold and silver compared to real estate come pretty darn close.

    Is a home or vacation property on your radar? 100 ounces of gold or 2,000 ounces of silver now, plus a little time, and you could very well get there.

    p.s. HOPE THERE IS NO COPYRIGHT ON THAT.
     
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  13. JOHNLGALT

    JOHNLGALT Well-Known Member

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    This Economist’s Research Says the Next Crisis Could Be Worse Than the Great Depression
    Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst, GoldSilver
    AUG 6, 2018

    Mike Maloney mentioned an economist he was studying as part of his research for a new book, so I ordered one of his books.

    The core message in this economist’s book pulls no punches: There is no escaping another debt-related crisis. And while he doesn’t specifically state the crisis will be worse than the Great Depression, the data he shares and conclusions he draws make that clear.

    The book is Can We Avoid Another Financial Crisis? by Steve Keen, Professor of Economics at Kingston University in the UK. For those who follow economic theories, he is closely associated with the beliefs of Hyman Minsky, who some credit as providing the best explanations of the causes of financial crises.

    According to Mr. Keen, there are two reasons we will have another financial crisis and that it will be nasty. Both are based on debt, but may not come from the angles you expect…

    #1 Private Debt Is Too High
    It’s hard to do much financial reading these days without running into an article on debt. While most analysts reference public or government debt, Mr. Keen says that history shows it is private debt that is the real culprit.

    • “The USA’s financial crisis is not over, because the level of private debt has remained high.”
    Consider why this is true. A government or central bank can print money or tinker with interest rates to deal with their debt load. The private sector can’t do these things, so their options to escape debt are very limited and thus tend to have a greater drag on an economy.

    Because of this, it is inevitable we’ll have another financial crisis. Mr. Keen points out that private debt levels dropped after the Great Depression, but remain frighteningly high today. I put the data in a chart:

    [​IMG]

    Private debt today has declined only marginally since the crisis in 2008/09, especially when compared to the greatest financial crisis in US history. In fact, it’s higher now than it was before the Great Depression.

    Ergo, a financial crisis is inescapable:

    • “There were only two means of escape for any country that got itself into this predicament (ignoring for the moment the third option of sensible government policy): either delay the crisis by taking on yet more debt and move further into the danger zone; or collapse out of the danger zone via a crisis that reduces credit demand for evermore.”
    We’ve kicked the can so far down the road (the first option) that it’s become a cliché. Those of you that follow Mike Maloney know he is emphatic that you can’t kick the can forever and that as a result there is no way to avoid another crisis.

    And of course, it’s not just private debt. US government debt, as a percent of GDP, is now higher than it has ever been.

    [​IMG]

    The US government has more debt than the country’s annual economic output. You can see that historically this has not been the case for many decades.

    Worse, there is every sign that government debt will continue to grow. The US Treasury just reported that it expects to issue $329 billion in net marketable debt this quarter (July-September), $56 billion more than what they estimated in April.

    And when you tally the debt load around the world, it’s staggering to realize just how much it has grown this millennium.

    [​IMG]

    Total global debt has almost quadrupled in just 17 years.

    Even though we haven’t had a financial crisis in almost a decade now, history is very clear on this point: the higher the governmental debt, the more financial shocks a country experiences.

    With debt in virtually all categories at record highs today, the number and intensity of financial shocks headed our way is likely to be life-changing. This is a clear signal to be overweight precious metals.

    #2: The Crisis Will Be Global
    The second reason the upcoming crisis will potentially be worse than the Great Depression is because it will affect virtually the entire planet.

    Mr. Keen classifies debt-laden countries into two categories. The first are the Debt Zombies as he calls them, classified as such because a) private debt exceeds 150% of the country’s GDP, and b) credit is 10% or more of GDP for the preceding five years. See if your country is on either of these lists…

    First, there are nine Debt Zombies:

    • US
    • UK
    • Denmark
    • Japan
    • Ireland
    • New Zealand
    • The Netherlands
    • Portugal
    • Spain
    According to Mr. Keen, these countries will have another crisis. As he says, even though it “can be put off for a decade if the private sector can be enticed to continue borrowing, but… this inevitably leads to even more leverage. Since this can’t go on forever, a crisis is inevitable.”

    The second category are countries he classifies as future Debt Zombies.

    • Hong Kong
    • China
    • Australia
    • Belgium
    • Canada
    • South Korea
    These future Debt Zombies “will suffer credit crunches in the next few years, and then join the 9 Debt Zombies countries… when that happens, the majority of the world’s economies will be in the doldrums due to excessive private debt, and the world will experience the kind of economic malaise that has afflicted Japan for over a quarter of a century.”

    What this tells us is that if he’s correct, then there will be very few places to hide. It will involve every developed country, at least 18 nations in all and as many as 26.

    And it’s not far away:

    • “Crises in the future debt Zombies are inevitable between now and 2020, and the plunge in their credit-based demand will take what little wind remains out of the sails of global commerce. Stagnation at the global level will be the outcome, not because of an absence of new ideas from scientists and engineers… but because mainstream economists have clung to delusional ideas about the nature of capitalism, even as the real world, time and time again, has proven them wrong.”
    Will he be right? You’ll notice that he basically has the same diagnosis — and prognosis — as Mike: it will be one of the biggest financial crises in history.

    Friends, don’t get discouraged by flat gold and silver prices. No matter what kind of crisis is ahead, they will protect you financially, as well as provide you a tremendous opportunity.
     
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  14. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    That's what they said at double and quadruple todays prices too.
     
  15. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    Those selling PM's make money regardless of which way the price goes.
     
  16. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Those buying at discounted prices may make some gains if they have the holding power :(, so long as not to "sell too early" o_O
     
  17. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    If you bought silver in 1990 you had to have about 15 years worth of holding power before it went anywhere.
     
  18. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Annual average prices / what $10000 worth of silver in 1990 became
    1990 $4.1 $10000
    1995 $5.2 $12683
    2005 $7.3 $17805
    2008 $15 $36585
    2011 $35 $85366
    2012 $31.2 $76098
    2013 $23.8 $58049
    2014 $20.4 $49756
    2015 $16 $39024
    2016 $17 $41463
    2018 $16.46 $40146

    So you didn't have to wait 15 years, even 1990-1995 is already +27%, while bank deposits interest rate were 5% and dropping, about the same as silver.
    Above is also year average prices, so not exactly hard to "time".

    Those that sold at that average price of 2011, had a hefty 754% profit.
     
  19. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    there was always a reality PAUSE, there was no such a thing like stacking
    if there was as easy to buy online, one could have scored the really sought after pieces
    just like those that goes for a few hundred dollars per ounce
     
  20. Gullintanni

    Gullintanni Well-Known Member

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    After reading the 2 articles JohnG posted i have this to say>>>>>>>>You can kick the can down the road as long as you want/need too.
    Just because some guy/girl gets sick of kicking it there will always be someone left to do the kicking and if no-one volunteers you pay someone.
    I have used the term myself in years gone by BUT after looking at the world through clear lenses i can now say for sure that KICKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD CAN GO ON INDEFINITELY.

    EDIT: Just one more thing about the graph above showing debt to GDP ratio, what the F does that have to do with anything in the real world SERIOUSLY?
    I have a one home with a million dollar mortgage but only a 105K income so my debt on that one item is 10X my GDP and yet i am not in any danger of bankruptcy.
    Just saying:)
     

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