SHTF!

Discussion in 'General Precious Metals Discussion' started by HotlineBling, Aug 3, 2016.

  1. markc

    markc Member

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    How much what?

    The diagram was to illustrate that bread (and I assume most other necessities) had a similar increase to gold. I would also assume that bread would have been more in demand item at the time.
     
  2. r1lee

    r1lee New Member

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    Bread 200,000,000,000
    Gold 87,000,000,000,000

    So you could have bought 435 loafs of bread.
    Only the mark was being devalued. We are in a situation worldwide where all fiat currencies are being printed in unlimited supply.
     
  3. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    And what happened during the great depression in the US?
    Time for a reality check:
    25% unemployed.
    [​IMG]

    It reached 30% unemployed in Australia.

    Horrible, yes, SHFT?, no. >70% of people still had a job.
    The vast majority of the population still had a job and therefore probably got through it ok.

    The pundits like the say the GFC2 could be worse than the great depression. Ok, let's say it's horrible and 40% unemployment rate. That's still the majority of the popular employed.
    Sure it sucks to be one of the unemployed, but in the big picture, life will go on for the majority of the population.
     
  4. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    I am debt free, I have cash, I have PM's, I have assets, I have my own business with zero debt and cash that whilst it could be a bit volatile in a financial crisis, is not at the whim of someone sacking me. I think I'll do ok, thanks for your concern.
     
  5. errol43

    errol43 New Member Silver Stacker

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    Horrible, yes, SHFT?, no. >70% of people still had a job.
    The vast majority of the population still had a job and therefore probably got through it ok.

    Different time... What % of women had jobs prior and during the Great Depression? I would hazard a guess and say 10% of women were in the workforce...In todays world it would probably mean than 30% of men and women would have a job.

    Regards Errol 43
     
  6. r1lee

    r1lee New Member

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    i don't believe that unemployment rate is a good example of the struggling economy. It does not take into effect, people who want a job but are no longer looking. In Canada this is calculated by the questionnaire that you must answer as you submit your weekly employment insurance claim. Once that is done (6-9months) you no longer fall into that % of the unemployed.

    Here's a link, of how bad it was.
    http://www.american-historama.org/1929-1945-depression-ww2-era/great-depression-poverty.htm
     
  7. r1lee

    r1lee New Member

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    woops.
     
  8. brexitbaby

    brexitbaby New Member

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    Depends On Who Is Asking.
    and what do you think that the 30-40% of unemployed workers (men) are going to be doing while you are at work - One guess ??

    They will be killing your dog/s and breaking into your nice comfortable home and eating from your fully stocked fridge and God forbid if your wife or children might be home :(

    Back in the early 20th century people didn't have as much as today with it's big disparity in the quality of life,so I reckon there will be a more violent reaction with the world already being a pretty violent place let alone when you might be hungrier and colder.

    What ever you do or don't do there is one simple thing to remember and it is this - The KISS principle - K-eep - I-t - S-imple - and the most important part - STUPID :lol:

    Keep it simple (stupid) otherwise you will forget what the hell you had planned and decided on.
     
  9. BuggedOut

    BuggedOut Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The will be collecting their welfare payments and out in the streets protesting for more jobs and handouts. Plus they'll be voting for the socialist (Labor/Green) scumbags who will be out there promising jobs and handouts (paid for by freshly printed bank notes)

    No breakdown in law and order I think until we get nearer to the end of the socialist induced death spiral.
     
  10. errol43

    errol43 New Member Silver Stacker

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    Or the Capitalist inspired Derivatives/Debt Spiral, Does it matter :) We are all doomed, I'll tell ya.

    Regards Errol 43
     
  11. Old Codger

    Old Codger Active Member Silver Stacker

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    I have little faith in the thin veneer of 'civilisation' that we are all betting on. It was different in the last depression. MUCH different!

    More like a breakdown in a few weeks and months after SHTF Day dawns.

    Hungry wife and kids will send dad out to do what he needs to do to look after them. Even less faith in the police forces, and some faith in the armed forces. The cops will circle the wagons and look after each other.

    Each soldier will have his Steyr, and will use it if he is attacked.

    As for unemployment, I expect something like 50% plus in a short time as the system falls to bits. Unemployment rates will be understated, and the dole will fall ever more behind reality.

    JMNHO


    OC
     
  12. BuggedOut

    BuggedOut Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I think the Capitalist inspired Derivatives/Debt thing ends with a bang, not a whimper (eg, death spiral). A true capitalist would just cut the chord and default. "You pays your money and you takes your chances" - or in other words, you knew the risks (or you should have known).

    In that scenario we may well get blood in the streets because some would lose their life savings overnight, but it's more likely to be over quickly.

    Considering in Australia we don't really have a conservative party any more and the Liberals have shifted toward the left in recent years, I just don't see us going that way.
     
  13. hamiltino

    hamiltino New Member

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    To avoid relying on shtf scenario for my gold to increase in value. I invest in silver as its a pm with industrial use.
     
  14. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    Got any data on how the silver price follows industrial demand?
     
  15. hamiltino

    hamiltino New Member

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  16. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    All these figures are from silver institute. Figures for 2015 some are estimates,

    Demand 1170 million oz. (data from 2016)
    Recycle 167 million oz (data from 2015)
    Mined 886 million oz (data from 2015)

    Interestingly industrial usuage of silver have gone steadily gone down over the decade from 648 million to 588 million ounces.
    The biggest increase over the same period is coins and bars 50 million ounces to 292 million ounces.

    Industrial demand
    http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/
    https://www.silverinstitute.org/WorldSilverSurvey2016.pdf

    Silver recycling
    https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/SilverScrapReport2015.pdf

    Silver output

    http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/silver-production/
     
  17. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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  18. mmissinglink

    mmissinglink Active Member

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    It's a rookie mistake to believe silver spot price follows industrial (or any other) demand. There may be a casual relationship, but not a causal one.




    .
     
  19. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    If one combines all figures from non-stockpiling market activity, they almost annihilate eachother (read: net zero change).
    The price was driven from $5 in 2002 to $35 in 2011. The reason being the stockpilers.

    Steadily down? 2011 was a peak industrial demand, 2009 a bottom. Not exactly "steadily down".
    I'd say that it's fairly stable. The decade average is 627 Moz, 2014 - merely 2 years ago, was 611.

    This was industrial applications reported upto 2014:

    Industrial Applications [DEMAND]

    1990 -272.6
    1991 -266.9
    1992 -259.4
    1993 -270.2
    1994 -281.8
    1995 -295.7
    1996 -297.7
    1997 -319.5
    1998 -316.3
    1999 -339.0
    2000 -383.3
    2001 -349.7
    2002 -355.3
    2003 -368.4
    2004 -430.0
    2005 -476.7
    2006 -502.9
    2007 -539.7
    2008 -551.2
    2009 -461.8
    2010 -574.4
    2011 -563.1
    2012 -534.7
    2013 -536.2

    Industrial demand is now twice the 1990 figure.
    The figures are consistently lower than the ones reported now, because last year they started to classify photography under industrial.

    Also, beware of corrections in later years of older years.
    For ex look at 2011's Industrial Fabrication.
    2011 -624.8 > -628.3 > 676.3
    And 2008
    2008 -651.3 > -554.1 > 656.8
    And 2009
    2009 -540.2 > -642.2 > 542.6

    100 Moz up and down like a yoyo :D
     
  20. hamiltino

    hamiltino New Member

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