The gold stock charts I have been looking at appear to be rolling over. So I think we may be in for a retest of the bottom in gold, im looking for 1150 or 1080 (USD, have no idea about gold in AUD) In short (pardon the pun) I dont think we are out of the woods yet. I dont believe the above targets are sustainable prices for gold, I also dont know if the XGD (Aussie Gold Producers Index) will revisit below 2000, I hope it holds. I am hoping (dont know) but we may see a low in August and rally through November, pull back December/January Basically what we need to see is higher highs and higher lows - and we need to retest those lows in order to establish that (or disprove that). No reason to be scared but good reason to be cautious. Do your own research im only learning technical analysis so I could be wrong. Have no idea about time frame other than the above general hunch Just trying to offer my unlearned opinion.
The only problem i see at the moment is that the spot is not following any technical patterns or fundamentals. When you have Bernanke causing big drops/gains in prices with his speeches - maybe the best way to analyze it at the moment is to look at when he speaks next and 'predict' what he will say in regards to QE.
Well I bought KCN in 1.20s (just a small amount) so im gonna put some shares on the line to test my tech analysis. So I sold that amount today, I think its put in a short term top (not enough momentum to push through the 50dma) so a retest of the bottom is in order - according to my understanding. External factors could change this. So im not risking much and goodness knows my personal portfolio is down enough for it not to matter. But potential reward if i am correct is greater than potental loss (or missing out on a rise) if im wrong. All part of the learning curve - im not doing this because I want to be a trader, but tech analysis is pretty good for a timing tool when your a buy and hold type guy.
Why are gold stocks rallying today? I dont see spot going up much and I thought everyone would be waiting for the Bernake speech tonight?
If gold cant break through 1310 - it wont confirm the stocks If KCN closes today above 1.66 - my sell will look kinda silly My trading venture isnt looking great so far
I worked out long ago short term trading isn't for me, but if you are going to try it using technicals then you really need to have a system worked out with position sizing and stop losses to minimise risk and preferably trade multiple markets or at least multiple segments of the stock market that don't correlate
Gold is really struggling to get past 1300, it won't get past 1350. Time to sell some more GLD call spreads, me thinks. Risk/Reward is looking pretty good now.
Im not so much trying to learn how to short term trade - but im trying to have a consequence for using tech analysis for timing buys So, say I want to buy into a new company. We have all had that experience where you buy an immediately it goes down. I want to do my funadamental research crunch my numbers, look at the macro picture, then use tech analysis to time my entry (or exit in the reverse) So we'll see. Im not great with patience. I try not to let emotion in, but when you're doing fundamental analysis - emotionlessness didnt really play to my favor on the gold decline. I think if I had better skills in Tech analysis i would have done better
Markets are still rolling over (gold and silver included) might make a new higher low or retest the bottom. No idea about timeframe. Just need a stable price for goodness sake!
One might skip all the QE TA and other crap, and only look at general price increasings (including taxes). Because if precious metal prices go up, and other prices don't follow, then every uptrend is bound to be reverted, because its profit in terms of purchasing power, and enough out there (for silver about 75% lol) grab it.
