Reddit #silversqueeze

Discussion in 'Silver' started by AustralianAustrian, Jan 31, 2021.

  1. Jason1

    Jason1 Well-Known Member

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    I got in when silver was $7,I was 19, silver was so unpopular you could buy bars on the market under spot, there were allot of people in 1980 who suffered the same FOMO thats being seen lately with new guys, they paid huge amounts of money on premiums just toget a bar, and years later were just happy to dump it to some one at a fraction of the price they paid. lol
    Again 2011 people suffered FOMO, paid stupid money on premiums, bang a few weeks later selling again under spot.
    pay to much and you can pay dearly with silver.Everytime you hear the same old story, "finally silver is going to the moon, back the truck up" or "Its different this time" hit the search button here and find those threads from 2010-11.
    buy smart and you make money, Buy silly under FOMO and you lose money.
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2021
    Millennial Engineer and 66rounds like this.
  2. BackYardPirate

    BackYardPirate Active Member Silver Stacker

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    As I just replied to 66, they're not my cup of tea, for my reasons and my reasons will remain silent. I enjoy Ainslie Bullion and Gold Bullion Australia, again for my reasons and my reasons will remain silent. Each to their own. I don't care if 100% of people here love BN, each to their own. But that being said, Ainslie, ABC, PM, BN plus others, all sell synthetic silver and until we get that problem sorted, the real price discovery won't happen. IMO of course
     
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  3. BackYardPirate

    BackYardPirate Active Member Silver Stacker

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    And I'm 48, I started buying gold and silver when I turned 17 and bought my first kilo bar of silver with my very first pay check from the Australian Army in July of 1991. I've been at this for a very long time and have learnt that EVERYONE stacks for different reasons and everyone has a different opinion and everyone enjoys different dealers.
     
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  4. Jason1

    Jason1 Well-Known Member

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    thats all good, every one has their own preferences on dealers. so no dramas.
     
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  5. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Have you had issues with them? I've heard a couple complaints from friends but all admitted that the matter was resolved amicably and rapidly. I'm not after a dealer that doesn't make mistakes (they don't exist), I'm after one that admits to them and fixes them immediately.
     
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  6. BackYardPirate

    BackYardPirate Active Member Silver Stacker

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    I don't believe that airing dirty laundry on the internet is appropriate, at all. They're not my cup of tea.
     
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  7. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I can appreciate that. Hope you were not significantly disadvantaged by your dealings with them
     
  8. Jason1

    Jason1 Well-Known Member

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    ok from that one sentence you showed, your definitely not one of the reddit crowd ahaha.
    showing some class on that one
     
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  9. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    covid premiums
    differences on vat from different countries buying up silver in another locations
    some price gouging
    price suppressions
    end of the day, buyer's choice
     
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  10. BackYardPirate

    BackYardPirate Active Member Silver Stacker

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    No, not me. I've not done business with them. A family member has, once.
     
  11. norman_h

    norman_h New Member

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    Sure buy smart, avoid the fomo. This makes sense. So, regardless of the buying, how is the broader cycle, ten year or seventy five year...

    Ignore the fomo, because the fomo will always look the same. What is the cycle? Either you see what it is or you don't. No shame in not seeing what it is, because stacking smart to avoid fomo doesn't require seeing the cycle. Can you or anyone else here visualise the cycle?
     
  12. Jason1

    Jason1 Well-Known Member

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    before the whole covid thing I was pretty good with predicting silver, eg what months were good to buy and what months were good to sell.
    there was a very noticeable trend each year after the 2011 crash in price.
    Like allot of things covid has messed things up, So I wouldn't dare take a guess on where its all at until things start resuming normal, so for that I tend to play things very cautious. keeping in mind $33 an ounce is up considerably from where it was only 18 months ago, definitely up a good amount in 12months,
    Silver typical cycle is way out of wack due to a very unusual period, and silver does not far well during economic downturns at first,but recovers hard after one though. so if we have a financial crisis soon then well thats another changing factor.
     
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  13. norman_h

    norman_h New Member

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    My observation tells me that another "western style" financial crisis isn't due for another seven to ten years. They're fundamentally driven by margin debt. Good explanation in the following book:
    https://g.co/kgs/E9Wvyg

    Beyond these engineered financial market crisis; there appear to be (in my visions) broader economic cycles. These cycles act on more of a macro level compared to the margin market cycles described in the book I linked above. Almost at the rise and fall of "Empire" level. At this level I see gold and silver. I guess I'm fishing for books or theories that others may have heard of which relate to this concept. Is anyone able to suggest some direction of books or theories for me to look up?
     
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  14. Millennial Engineer

    Millennial Engineer Active Member

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    Did the pressure release valve go off in 2020 by your observations Norman? I thought that the market swung around in a 7 year cycle, this one which had been extended out to 12 years, 2008 to 2020. But that was triggered by 1 in 100 year pandemic, which could be argued as engineered. And because this is still around, who knows for how long, things are different.
     
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  15. Millennial Engineer

    Millennial Engineer Active Member

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    Kitco.jpg

    A meme which made me smile this morning.
     
  16. Azure

    Azure Active Member Silver Stacker

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    One thing of interest to me is AI and deep learning, especially across financial market data.

    The same technology is already getting really good with graphics.:D
    https://thispersondoesnotexist.com/

    See, if ANY consistent patterns exist, AI neural nets can be trained to discover, recognise and trade on them automatically.:oops:
    This results in some interesting caveats.

    Firstly, a system that is predictable is exploited till all predictability is accounted for by the fastest to act AI.
    Second, after the real patterns of bias are removed/exploited the other AIs fail to profit from their strategy’s and are retrained. The slower competing AIs will lose against the faster AIs but will introduce “self fulfilling” patterns of shorter time frame movements... they win based on “tricking other AIs pattern recognition” via “closely resembling patterns”, and will over time generate the patterns that PEOPLE fall for and trade on too.:mad:

    eventually every perceived “head and shoulders” or “dead cat bounce” or “double top” formation will just be an AI induced trick to catch unsuspecting trading systems with incomplete or false historical data induces biases. It will fake entire moves even with 0 real market participants, to count the unpredicted inputs and then take your cake. The real moves will be COMPLETELY random and only “predicted” by those who were lucky for the duration and fooled themselves to believe otherwise.:rolleyes:

    You can’t predict the slot machine, that’s an accepted fact.
    I think the market will NOT become accepted similarly in the future, people will continue to pit themselves against it for the potential profit they see from the loud and visible vocal random winners, and not the unseen losers hiding their shame.
    Best bet then is not to expose exploitable risks, which means fair trading practices outside of AI influenced trading systems.:cool:



    But I’m probably crazy, so take that with a grain of salt. o_O
     
  17. norman_h

    norman_h New Member

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    Yes. It did. You also point to the 2008 thing as I see it.

    The 100 year pandemic is just an excuse. It's the same thing as other times. Dot com. Oil shock. Housing bubble. Whatever. The more thing change the more they stay the same applies here. The thing that stays the same is the greed and desire for more. I see this cycle as a way of keeping market participants in their place, ie greedy people shouldn't have to much money. It's a sort of "separation of powers" thing which enables this to work.

    So, what I'm looking for is a broader market cycle which acts in a similar way. Can you (or someone else) assist by pointing me in the direction. I see it happening in an abstract world, I just want to understand it in the real world.
     
  18. Millennial Engineer

    Millennial Engineer Active Member

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    putting my tin foil hat on, A digital system is coming. 5G, in the future should have enough bandwidth to facilitate this.
    Also a polarising event in my opinion is coming, are you vaccinated or not (I look at this as the "solution" to the problem reaction solution). Which may be a catalysis/ amped to a crisis to push through more engineered finances.
     
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  19. tdtwedt

    tdtwedt Member Silver Stacker

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  20. Azure

    Azure Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Internet of things + IPv6,
    Quantum computing + AI,
    Plastic/Trash eating/consuming oceanic robots,
    Energy requirements of Bitcoin vs clean energy/systems,
    Fusion / Hybrid Hydrogen - Electric vehicles w/ photovoltaic paint,
    Native 3D television you can view from different angles (@+1Tb/sec data rates for video)
    New teaching aids for schools and more accurate models that explain science.
    New diseases and birth based defects from pollution, radiation and random evolution coupled with biases to survival.

    The future beyond our lifespans has a lot more than we will be able to handle, but our descendants will excel, and overcome them. This means effort and changing to adapt. Things going in and out of fashion / acceptance, and value.
    To set them up for success, what we need is more stability, forethought, foundations and consciousness of existence beyond our own lifespans.
    And nature, the survival of natural environments for after our “great barrier/filter” events.

     

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