Ramelius rms.ax

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by Agauholic, Jun 17, 2011.

  1. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    2,505
    Likes Received:
    28
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Price earnings. 5.86 according to SMH.

    edit

    should note they took a hit to their production last qtr.
     
  2. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    2,505
    Likes Received:
    28
    Trophy Points:
    48
    RMS put out another production update. 'Block D' seems to be looking ok.

    Mt Magnet seems to be going along OK as well.
     
  3. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    Yes big relief this announcement today. My faith in the management will never recover from recent events though: the big whack of free shares to the managing director in December, the sell down of shares from the September peak with placement, share purchase plan, and Dec Qtr production collapse at W.D all directly ahead. How did they all know to start decisively selling in late September with gaps down in price? no announcement to explain, just what followed in October and November. Who would guess a big capital raising from a company that had $90m in cash/gold and all its fixed capital costs for Mt Magnet paid?

    Update on on Mt Magnet implies that mine and mill are on track to full ramp up by end of Feb, but non insiders can know nothing yet of operational costs or the hitches that might occur on the way. Mt Magnet a big contrast to the producing Wattle Dam, being low grade open pit.

    Anyway, haven't sold any yet although was very close to it. Will follow my charting instincts for this company now, since I can't rely on management.
     
  4. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    2,505
    Likes Received:
    28
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Free shares? Some directors exercised some options and bought shares in the share offering. I don't think they sold any? Production problems happen from time to time, that's mining for you. There are a few that have had problems for one reason or another lately. As for the cap raising I'm glad they did it when they did. The price rallied a bit a little while after the announcement, it would have been possible to ease your position above the cap raising price.
     
  5. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    The M.D was awarded 500k shares as announced Dec 7
    http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=RMS&E=ASX&N=186188

    Here is how the appendix Y announcement was worded:

    "Value/Consideration $1.325 per share at COB on 5/12/2011
    Nature of change: Vested employee rights to shares issued pursuant to the Ramelius Employee Performance Rights Plan

    COB means close of business and that is how the shares were valued, but he got them for no consideration. The guy made over $600k in FY11 in cash and cash bonuses alone.
    The price did rally a bit after the announcements, but if you were holding shares when they were 1.70 it's hard to see why you would be glad that they cap raised at 1.15 while in all possibility the news along with production collapse had been leaking out for a month. How do you organize a $40m cap raising plus a SPP without some in the market getting to know about it?
     
  6. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    2,505
    Likes Received:
    28
    Trophy Points:
    48
    I missed the right issue, sorry.

    As to the cap raising I was a bit miffed when they announced it, see above, but then the price rallied after the announcement.

     
  7. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    That's not the issue for me. It's rapid and full disclosure. If they don't quickly let the market know, it gives a few time to move.
     
  8. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    2,505
    Likes Received:
    28
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Looking back at the announcements they could've been more forthcoming about the dec qtr. I think I must of extrapolated from the previous two qtrs because I can't see them actually flagging a figure for the dec qtr.
     
  9. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    Don't know how much reliance I'd put on it but it's a bit of a confidence boost for a holder that Skaffold was seeing promise in RMS back in February. The price was 1.10 at the time of ranking and presumably the terrible December Quarter Update, released January 10, had been factored in. Skaffold is supposed to update its valuations daily with any new data coming in.

    The valuation for RMS was included in a ranked Top 50 stocks 2012 with focus on forecast 3 year growth. It appeared in Feb issue of Money Magazine. Ramelius came in at 4th place out of 50 featured stocks with the following marks:
    Quality: A1
    Forecast 3 year growth rate (% per annum): 29%
    Market Price: 1.10
    Valuation: 2.32
    Discount: 52%

    Skaffold is the valuation software being marketed by Roger Montgomery's group. Some of Roger's picks have come to grief, albeit he always says he didn't get caught and sold before the news. Examples are MCE and ZGL. His team is capable of reassessing on a daily basis and dialoguing with managements. Forecasting growth of earnings for a gold mine is a bit ridiculous in my experience of them. Ramelius is currently ramping up its treatment plant at Mt Magnet to projected full production by end of March. We don't know what gremlins will appear in that time. However if you believe in the tone of management announcements, Mt Magnet is on track. Wattle Dam looks to be back in profitability with January production estimated at 6,000 ozs, grade through mill at 12.7 g/t, and plenty of ore ready above ground.
     
  10. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    2,505
    Likes Received:
    28
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Yes it was a nice announcement a little while back but then you'd expect that when bouncing back from a plant problem? See how it settles down. With Mt Magnet coming into full production in March hopefully they'll be set for a couple of good qtrs and get back on track.

     
  11. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    Wonder if we'll get a meaningful low here or just a bounce? Signs are good for a low so far with hammer formed 2 hours into trading with quite a bit of volume for so early in the day. If 90c doesn't hold we could be toast. What an M.D to be saddled with - gets himself gifted 500,000 shares, then after market close on Friday slips in announcement that he's sold 249,000 of them to satisfy his tax obligations. Selling free shares in his own company 8 months away from tax deadline. What a show of confidence when we're all waiting on tenterhooks to see if the Mt Magnet operation can make it through ramp up. Another great leader in the juniour resource company space.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    I'm thinking about it, but very unpleasant topic for me right now ;)
     
  13. Black_Sun

    Black_Sun New Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2011
    Messages:
    1,031
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Australia
    Your observation of 07-March is not very encouraging.
     
  14. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    I might get out of this one tomorrow. Back to my average buy-in price after a few years of 'investment' - 83,000 shares - discomfort getting a bit much. Arguably a confirmed head and shoulders break down, neckline at 90c - 90c should have held as some support, at least temporarily, but didn't. Chart sucks, no faith or confidence in management. If I sell, I will be poised for re-entry if a reversal is evident. Market has no confidence in Mt Magnet. Doubts about Wattle Dam performance. Company has leaked before imo. Managing Director looking after himself with the tax selling of free shares more then half a year before he will have to pay ATO.

    Just my sentiments
     
  15. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    Didn't sell my holding yesterday as it turned out. Opened up the watchlist about an hour into trading yesterday and there was RMS up ~5%. If it can stay above 75c it's worth holding I figure. No idea whether this is merely a bounce off oversold, or a real bottom. You'd have to give the former a higher probability, although 75c has a claim for being a support level. Otherwise nothing down to sub 50c, and I'm not hanging around for that if I can help it. That would be all Ramelius's price gain from a couple of years of profitable production at Wattle Dam given back - thankyou Mr Market.
     
  16. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    2,505
    Likes Received:
    28
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Quaterly is out. Not looking good at Wattle Dam. 10,000 ounces and not going to improve from there by the looks. They really need to perform on Mt Magnet. :(
     
  17. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    RMS was $29m cashflow negative in the December Quarter by my calc. At the end of that Quarter (31 Dec) there was still $102m cash left. Of that, $49m came from the placement and Share Purchase Plan.

    Now today, and pretty much as late as possible, they release the March Quarterly. The amount of cash left? There is $66m cash left. They confuse us with the item that $11.2m tax was paid during the quarter, but paying tax is normally what companies do, and it is desirable that it comes out of earnings not cash reserves. So RMS was $36m cashflow negative in the March Quarter. That's a big number.

    Wattle Dam - shorter mine life at lower grades, nothing found under known ore-body.

    Mt Magnet is an unknown at this stage as to how much tonnage can be achieved, what grade, what recovery rate of gold from ore, what mining and processing costs. So shareholders are back to owning a start up sort of company, where they believe management projections or not. After all the previous misleading guidance over Wattle Dam and other matters - I don't
     
  18. Lunardragon

    Lunardragon Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Messages:
    3,967
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Land of Nineth Dragon
    looks like the stock got dumped.
    is that possible go sub 50, i wonder?
     
  19. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,468
    Likes Received:
    75
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Dreamworld
    I got out for a loss at 66.5c this morning after the usual stuff up with NAB Online Trading when I'm trying to make an at market sell.

    From an $84,000 paper profit to a realized loss of $7,000 in 8 months - gold stocks, they'll make you rich, lol
     
  20. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    2,505
    Likes Received:
    28
    Trophy Points:
    48
    That's a lot of money to have in a junior. did you take any profit while had it?
     

Share This Page