[QA] What happens to Pandas when the SHTF?

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by yennus, Oct 7, 2011.

  1. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  2. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  3. Reeve

    Reeve Member

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    I understand where Argentum is coming from, i think the world is not gonna be apocalyptic after the SHTF but i also believe money would be very very tight ( thinking weimar germany ) Where each ounce of silver would count. I believe collecting pandas for a hobbie is good if you can appreciate them and they are worth X to you but hedging ( i think that is the right word ) for a depression, they would not hold up the expected appreciation. Hope that makes sense.
     
  4. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

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    If things ever do get that bad, pandas will only be worth their weight in silver until society rebuilds. After that rebuilding takes place, there will be those who want to collect rare works of art from a bygone time.

    How much does a mint condition Spanish pieces of 8 go for these days?
     
  5. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hi Argentum, welcome to the Panda Forum. It's a pleasure to have you here :)

    Yes, some of the premiums you will pay on some Pandas will be very large. But I believe the profits to be made in the future are going to be waaaay bigger, even when/if the SHTF, and when the world recovers from the ashes of that sh*t.

    It really depends on what sort of bad you're hoping/preparing for, and if the sh*t only lasts a season or a lifetime :)

    If I need to barter or trade, I have 2011 1oz Pandas which are only a fraction more expensive than standard bullion (ASE/Maples/etc). At the very worst, I lose 7-8% of my potential purchasing power, and this effect only lasts during the crisis.

    In my SHTF scenario, I want to have Panda coins since:
    1. I live in Australia, which happens to be in the Asia Pacific region (for better and/or worse), and when the dust settles, I do believe that China will be the leading superpower (for better and/or worse). Which is good for Pandas.
    2. If I need to run (like the Jews or Chinese of WWII), from my experience of selling/buying in Asia, demand for Pandas will outweigh demand for ASEs and other bullion products. Which is good for Pandas.
    3. I believe that as demand for silver goes 'to da moon' so will silver and gold Pandas. Look at it from this angle, is current demand for Pandas growing or shrinking? Is it likely to keep growing during a silver/gold rush? I believe that the demand for silver will only increase the demand for Pandas. Similarly, if the RMB/yuan appreciates, so do the Pandas. Which is good for Pandas.

    But what if the stuff doesn't hit the fan? Or if the sh*t doesn't come for another 5 or 10years? Or if the SHTF lasts only a few months?
    1. If I had purchased ASE's/bullion coins, I have only preserved my capital. It's no better than putting cash in a savings account that keeps up with inflation.
    2. If I had purchased Pandas, there is a fantastic gain. I've increased my wealth many times over, and as a result, I am much better prepared for when the SHTF comes as well as after.

    1. You're entitled to your opinion.
    2. In my opinion, I want to be prepared for the worst, but also in position to take advantage of the opportunities.
    3. A standard bullion stack is limited since it generally doesn't grow in real worth.
    4. A Panda bullion stack appreciates in value, and is also an effective hedge for when/if the SHTF.

    Here's a good example. Take a look at this chart I compiled for personal use from various sources (APMEX, personal sales, CCF, etc)
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_asevspandapercent.jpg][​IMG][/imgz]

    Anytime in the last 10 years, it would have been a much more profitable decision to go with Pandas. The person who has been stacking Pandas for the last ten years is in a much better position to prepare for a SHTF event because he is much much much more wealthy now compared to the person stacking ASEs.

    A meager $10,000 investment 10years ago if placed in ASEs would only be worth approx. $60,000 today.
    A meager $10,000 investment 10years ago if placed in Pandas would be worth approx. $200,000 today. That buys a lot more farmland, food, ammo, etc...

    But let's not even go back that far... let's only go back to 2009.

    A meager $10,000 investment 2 years ago if placed in ASEs would only be worth approx. $20,000-$30,000 today.
    A meager $10,000 investment 2 years ago if placed in Pandas would be worth at approx. $60,000 today.*
    *2009 Panda pricing estimated at approx $16each upon release.

    In my opinion. A person that places his savings/pension in standard bullion really gains nothing, and only preserves his capital (which is better than leaving it in cash which is sure to lose). But a person that places his savings/pension in Pandas hedges for if the SHTF, and takes advantages of the Panda Profitability.

    Q>BUT WHAT ABOUT THE EXPENSIVE RARE PANDAS?
    A>Yeah, I'm coming to that...
    In 2007, the standard 2000 Frosted Panda was valued at 880RMB (approx. $146). Today it is valued at over $500 (even more for NGC coins). Growth of 3.42 times.
    In 2007, the standard ASE was about $18. Today it is valued about $39. Growth of 2.16 times.
    So yes, the expensive coins have also appreciated faster than spot and standard bullion.

    [PANDA FANS will note that I didn't use the 2000 Mirror example, mainly because it is just fantastically huge!]
    A meager $10,000 investment 11 years ago if placed in ASEs ($6.50) would only be worth approx. $60,000 today ($38.93).
    A meager $10,000 investment 11 years ago if placed in Mirrored Pandas ($10) would now be worth over $1,500,000 (>$1500) <--- now this guy is much better positioned to get prepared for when the SHTF than the other guy.

    [PANDA COLLECTOR Fans will note that I didn't use the PPI, because that also demonstrates fantastic returns]
    Question: What is the range of performance of the individual coins?
    Answer: The lowest gain was 73% and the highest was 2,748%. The average gain as of January 1, 2011 was 503%.
     
  6. Reeve

    Reeve Member

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    Yennus, very good explanation, you have now inspired me to look more into pandas. So which panda would be the best to buy xD
     
  7. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    For the new conservative Panda investor, I would recommend getting as many 2011 1oz Silver Pandas as affordably as you can. These are a low risk, but low return play on Pandas.

    Why?
    1. Affordability: These can be had a fraction above ASEs/Maples/etc. 7-8% more is the usual going rate.
    2. 2012 Boost: The end of the 2011 series is near, and the 2012s will be coming out soon. This should give an automatic boost to the value of the 2011 Pandas.
    3. Authenticity: It hasn't been worth faking this series yet, so for new investors, they can purchase comfortably with full peace of mind.
    4. Short Term (<1 year): Spot silver is currently low, and is likely to rise, taking the 2011s up too.
    5. Mid Term (<2 years): These should get a free boost in price from 2012, and 2013 Pandas.
    6. Long Term (>2 years): Worldwide demand for Pandas should be even greater than it is now, thereby keeping the return on 2011 Pandas above spot.
    7. You are essentially buying a bullion coin at a bullion price, that is very likely to take on numismatic characteristics within 1-2years. That numismatic upgrade comes for FREE! :) You can even get your Pandas graded at a later date, pushing the price of your initial investment even higher.

    Why not ASEs?
    1. No gain: If you went for ASEs there is no gain, merely the perseverance of your capital. Even in 10years time, the 2011 ASE will still only be worth 1 single ASE.
    2. But in 10years time, one 2011 Panda is very likely to be worth more than one 2021 Panda (maybe a fraction more, or many multiples more).
    3. The way I see it, if you go with ASEs, you don't lose, but you can't win either. If you're happy with what you have and don't have any desire to grow your stack, get ASEs, but if you are keen to grow what you have, I personally think Pandas are the easiest way to go.
    4. Even if you get your ASE graded, the returns are incredibly low. A 2000 ASE MS69 only goes for about $50 if that. Whereas a 2000 Panda MS69 goes for much much more (approx. $650).
    ...

    For the experienced Panda investor, or for someone that understands the fundamentals fairly well, I would go for the BIG THREE Pandas. These are still relatively affordable, and will only get more scarce as time goes on.

    We have seen the performance of the 2000 Frosted Panda outpace spot since 2007, imagine how much better the Mirrored 2000 Panda will do when the Pandamonium is increasing globally?

    If you don't know what the BIG THREE Pandas are, it is a good time to get the Panda Book by Peter Anthony (available at Maggie's Corner), and perhaps even invest in his Pricepedia. Or linger around the Panda Forum, and I'm sure you'll pickup some profitable tips :)

    ...

    For those who want to really gear up for some fantastically wild returns, and don't mind some risk... Bi-metallic Pandas, and the Munich sets :) ... (I'm not in this league yet).


    I hope this has been helpful :)
     
  8. comeaux

    comeaux New Member Silver Stacker

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    Very good post yennus ... I honestly could not have added anything else, you covered it very well.

    Ok so here is a story that will probably be very hard to believe since it happened right at the time of this discussion. Of course as you have seen my posts and are beginning to know me you probably know that whatever I state I will back it up with facts :)

    Ok soooo The president of my company who has been a huge silver/gold bullion investor for 30 years (I'm talking about a guy that has been purchasing gold in the Kilo bars) walks into my office just minutes ago.

    So it's by coincidence that just today, he walks into my office and pulls out five 1 oz gold pandas out of his pockets and says "hey Randy I have been hearing you talk about Pandas lately are these worth anything?"

    First off I almost fell over out of my chair because I couldn't believe he had them just in his pocket like that but after close inspection they all looked fine in their OMP.

    Now these five coins just happened to be not of the rarest pandas (1-1989, 2-1985, 1-2007 & 1-1993) except the 1993 which is a small date but the amazing thing is that his precious metals investor bought these for him in early 2007 for about $550 each !!!

    Ok just so those non-believers think I am making this up for this post here I just submitted them to NCS today as invoice #5403102. This number is important because when they arrive at NCS on Monday or Tuesday you will see this number tied to these specific coins tied to the date on Monday or Tuesday. I will post up here the NCS receiving confirmation for these five coins with all of their dates listed on it.

    Anyways so an initial $2,750 investment just for these five coins could very well turn out to be a $15,000 profit or more depending on the grades he gets especially if he comes out with just one MS70 !

    Just the 1993 alone only has an estimated population of 5,500 coins and this is for small and large date combined so for the small date alone it is even less than that.

    As we packaged them up and shipped them off USPS Registered he turned and said "Damn, I wish I would have put a lot more into these Chinese Pandas !!!"

    Anyway It is a long story but just another example of huge gains verses original investment.:D
     
  9. Reeve

    Reeve Member

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    I fail to understand the grading side of things? Any chance someone has a link to a good info site for it? please and thank you.
     
  10. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    Agreed...

    Just buy both bullion and numismatic if you're that worried about SHTF.

    1000oz of Silver bullion (I hate ASEs so lets say, Philharmonics) + 300oz of Silver Pandas (Graded/Rare OMP years)

    Scenario 1: silver spot goes to the moon, no SHTF, your bullion is worth heaps and your pandas are worth even more.

    Scenario 2: silver spot fluctuates up and down but still only manages to be in 2 digits, no SHTF, your bullion is worth a bit more but pandas are worth a lot more.

    Scenario 3: SHTF and you have to use the silver to start feeding the family, assuming historical figures of 1oz silver per day, that is 1000 days you can survive on core bullion without touching pandas.

    Scenario 4: SHTF over 1000 days, you will have to start trading pandas for food etc when you could've had 600oz of Philharmonics you only have 300oz of Pandas so you only last 1300 days as opposed to 1600 days.

    Personally I find #4 to be unlikely, so if I were to stack for SHTF I'd follow this strategy, stack a core Gold/Silver position with low premium coins and then move onto high potential coins as a hedge against S not HTF.
     
  11. THUCYDIDES79

    THUCYDIDES79 New Member Silver Stacker

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    The Swap rates


    Swap Rates: (rounds, coins and bars must be in good condition, as the Panda is in mint condition)
    1oz 999 rounds valued at $38 [E.g. Buffaloes, etc]
    1oz standard 999 coinage valued at $41 [E.g. ASEs/Maples/Kooks/Lunars/Roos/Koalas/etc]
    1oz premium 999 coinage valued at $42 [E.g. Pandas/Kook Privies/Andean/Grizzlies/Wolves/Lydian]
    10oz PerthMint/SouthernCross/BullionClub Bars valued at $385


    I would love to see the footage when you take the above coins into the dealership in China where you source your Pandas from, and the giggle that you and the dealer have afterwards.

    Nice arbitraging

    And as soon as someone negatively mentions the Pandas you come with your QE and bring back the confidence into the market and talk about the hiiiigh prices in the future.

    That future you talk about is ALREADY here, they are already too costly.

    :)
     
  12. comeaux

    comeaux New Member Silver Stacker

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    Could you sell me a 10 year old panda for $45 each? I will buy as many as you have

    Or even better ... sell me any/all of your 1oz gold pandas 2009 or earlier at $100 above spot :)

    Again I do not understand the mentality of people who claim they do not like pandas to even post in this forum?

    What's the matter with the ASE, buffalo, maple forum ? Not a whole lot going on in there or did someone knock over the checkerboard?
     
  13. THUCYDIDES79

    THUCYDIDES79 New Member Silver Stacker

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    How about when you sell your Pandas you sell them with a PUT OPTION

    So you sell it now for $105 a pop ( rough cost of 3 ugly,boring,no future buffalos ) PLUS a put option for the buyer that he can sell/swap the same Panda back to you for 4 or even 3 Buffalo 2-3 years from now ?

    Whats wrong with the mentality of people who claim they do not like pandas to post in this forum? - What kind of a question is this?

    Regards ASE, buffalo and maples forum - no one has been able to successfully use them to pay for the tickets from Australia to North America and back and still have some cash left over.
    ie. buy them there and sell them here.

    The panda talk sounds like Dubai Real Estate talk back in 2006 - the Dubai RE had similar rates of growth, and the sellers used similar approaches in selling their RE to outside investors
     
  14. 940palmtx

    940palmtx New Member

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    The future is always at least a day away. The idea that because a mint Hemi Cuda is over 300K today and it can't go higher because it's already expensive is as flawed logic as I've seen on this site. Someone could come up with a half dozen reasons why Pandas may not increase in value or be a good investment, but clearly the idea that because some Pandas are already 'expensive' is not among them.
    Checkerboards...LOL
     
  15. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    THUCY, yennus has publicly stated before his swap rates are bad because he wants to profit.

    He prefers fiat to buy more pandas.
     
  16. comeaux

    comeaux New Member Silver Stacker

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    I would advise any of you members living in Australia that want to sell your coins quickly and for a premium price, do this ...

    Open an Ebay account, list your coins preferably in OMP or graded but it really does not matter if they have been removed from OMP to many people. Ok so when you list your coins, make sure you enable shipping to countries like China, Malaysia, Europe, etc ... do this and then come back and tell me how long they remained listed for sell :D

    Another thing is as I previously stated ... the majority of my silver, gold & platinum Chinese Pandas have been purchased in OMP (raw) and subsequently graded. I will start posting my recent graded coins on the photos section. Look at those I am posting and it does not take a very long search with minimal effort to see what they are selling for.

    For example ... the 1983 Gold Panda set I have posted in "photos" right now in NGC MS69 cost me $4,200 in raw coins and another $90 to grade. I can sell that set right now for over $6,000. I even posted a link to a "high roller" ebayer who has the identical set for sell at nearly $10,000 which I believe is overpriced but I know what he is doing, all it takes in one these high level Chinese collectors to come by and pick it up, this guy has been in business a long time doing this.

    As I said earlier, don't listen to trolls who haven't a clue ... do the research yourself on world auction sites or just look at tamo42's posts of recent auction prices ... make your decision off of the facts that your own eyes see and not what the uneducated to collecting attempt to tell you.

    My fellow panda members ... again, it's all about diversity. Enjoy life, invest in a variety of metals and coins.

    All you can do is pity those who live their lives everyday as the sky is falling :D

    Oh yea ... I did ask that question ... what the hell would someone who does not like pandas and loathes their existance be doing in this forum? It is odd yet interesting.
    Is not there any excitement in the ASE or Maple forum *yawn*? i guess this is how it goes in their forum ... "hey I'll trade you my ASE with the same bird on it for the last 20 years for your coin with the same old hag on it for the last 20 years !" wow ... sounds interesting :D
    panda forum is the only interest in town tonight !

    It seems some people should spend about 2 minutes in a dictionary to realize and understand the difference in "collecting" and "investing" :cool:
     
  17. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    1. Your comment is a clear defamation of character, my character. Which is incredibly rude.
    2. Please keep such wicked thoughts and comments to yourself.
    3. Such unpleasant comments are not welcome here.
    4. Such an event is unlikely to take place because the dealerships in China wouldn't be interested in the ASEs/Maples/Kooks/Lunars.
    5. Time will tell if Pandas are at their peak. You believe they are. I believe they are just starting.
    6. If you don't agree with my position that is fine, but that doesn't justify the rude comments just made.
    7. The Panda market is bigger than me, or any single person. I don't bring confidence into the Panda market, the market confidence is already there. I didn't make the trends on the PPI, someone else did.

    ***PLEASE NOTE: ATTACK THE STATEMENTS BEING MADE, NOT THE PERSON!****

    I'm going Panda hunting now... hopefully the behavior of some people questioning here improves.
     
  18. comeaux

    comeaux New Member Silver Stacker

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    very well said yennus ... I'm all for open discusion but this got to the point of being rediculous.
     
  19. popcorn

    popcorn Member

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    With many fake things that come from China, when it is time to sell pandas to individuals outside this forum, do you think it would be harder (compared to say PM, pamp, morgan bar, scottsdale etc) assuming they can't perform the testing? If I sell to this forum yes I can say 'I bought this from yennus, so I guarantee it is not fake', but what about anyone else who doesn't know who yennus is? This forum might not be around in 5 10 years time.... I am not trying to attack anyone, this is just one of reasons that still deter me from having pandas. Any comments would be appreciated.
     
  20. tamo42

    tamo42 New Member

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    Certification and slabbing will help establish authenticity. I read somewhere that there are places in India slabbing 1 gram of gold for just such assurance.
     

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